A couple of years ago, in a pique of sarcasm, I wrote up an automated system for MVP voting. I should trade mark it. Lets see how my system works for 2022.
And with today’s announcement of the Top 3 finalists for each award, I thought i’d post my official MVP predictor piece for 2022.
This list of steps allows you to quickly pick the top 8-10 MVP vote getters in each league each season as a way to predict the award.
1. Make list of best teams in league/division winners.
2. Identify the “most famous” and/or Best hitter on each team.
3. Check WAR lists and league leaders for candidates not on winning teams, or “famous” players with solid seasons.
4. Add in incredibly dominant pitchers, especially if they’re from a team that doesn’t have a real dominant hitter.
5. Apply appropriate ‘weights” for East coast players over West coast, especially if the player is with New York or Boston (I call this the Media adjustment). Also weight small market players lower than larger market, more famous players.
6. Apply appropriate “discounts” for non-division winning players and those who have already won (I call this the “Narrative” adjustment).
Lets apply my system for this year.
NAR MVP Predictor for the AL 2022 MVP
#1/2: Best teams and their best Hitter:
- New York Yankees: Aaron Judge
- Houston: Yordan Alvarez
- Cleveland: Jose Ramirez
- Toronto: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Seattle: Julio Rodriguez
- Tampa Bay: (nobody: you couldn’t pick their WAR leaders out of a lineup)
#3: Add in the following names based on WAR league leaders
- Shohei Ohtani, Angels (2nd in WAR)
- Andres Gimenez, Cleveland (3rd in the league in WAR, more than his more famous teammate Ramirez)
- Mike Trout, Angels (8th in the league in WAR)
- Carlos Correa, Minnesota (10th in league in batter WAR)
#4; Add in best pitchers
- Alex Manoah, Toronto: #2 pitcher in bWAR, but for a playoff team.
- Dylan Cease, White Sox: #1 pitcher in bWAR
#5 Add in Media adjustments
Ramp weight up for New York-based Judge, Increase weights for “famous” players Ohtani, Trout, Guerrero, Alvarez. Weight down Seattle and Cleveland players.
#6: Ohtani and Trout will lose points thanks to the Angel’s continued futility.
Results? Here’s my bold prediction on the AL MVP voting:
- Judge
- Ohtani
- Alvarez
- Guerrero
- Rodriguez
- Manoah
- Trout
- Ramierz
- Gimenez
- Correa
Perhaps in 2022, with Judge’s historic HR chase, his Triple Crown chase, and his 10+ WAR season, its a no-brainer. But Ohtani is arguably having a better season than he had in 2021, so you never know.
ACTUAL RESULTS: tbd (will add in post announcement and judge my predictions)
NAR MVP Predictor for the NL 2022 MVP
#1/2: Best teams and their best Hitter:
- Los Angeles: Freddie Freeman
- Atlanta: Austin Riley
- New York Mets: Pete Alonso
- St. Louis: Paul Goldschmidt
- San Diego: Manny Machado
- Philadelphia: J.T. Realmuto
- Milwaukee: (nobody really)
#3: Add in the following names based on WAR league leaders
- Mookie Betts: LAD
- Nolan Arenado: STL
- Francisco Lindor, NYM
#4; Add in best pitchers
- Sandy Alcantara, Miami
- Max Fried, NY Mets
#5 Add in Media adjustments
Ramp weight up for New York-based Alonso. Ramp up weight for the famous players like Machado, Gldschmidt, Betts, Freeman. Lower weights for Realmuto, Riley
#6: Alcantara loses points playing for loser Miami.
Results? Here’s my bold prediction on the NL MVP voting, which is significantly tougher to predict this year than the AL.
- Goldschmidt
- Machado
- Arenado
- Alcantara
- Realmuto
- Riley
- Freeman
- Betts
- Lindor
- Alonso
ACTUAL RESULTS: tbd (will add in post announcement and judge my predictions)