We’re through the super regionals, and have a CWS field that is, frankly, stacked. It’s going to be a great CWS.
First, lets recap the Supers.
- #1 Wake Forest v #16 Alabama: Wake Forest squeaked out a 5-4 opener, then blasted Alabama 22-5 to move to Omaha. In 5 post-season games, Wake has outscored its opponents 75-16. Wow.
- #8 Stanford v Texas: Stanford lost the first but turned things around to squeak past Texas. In game 2, starter Quinn Matthews was allowed to finish a CG on 156 pitches despite an 8-3 lead in one of the more egregious abuses of a starter we’ve seen in the college game in some time.
- #5 LSU v #12 Kentucky: LSU blasted Kentucky in game 1 as Paul Skenes wasn’t over-worked (as we can’t say the same for Matthews), getting yanked at 101 pitches in their 14-0 win. They finished off Ky 8-3 on Sunday.
- Tennessee v Southern Miss: Tennessee came from a game down to advance past Southern Miss.
- TCU v #14 Indiana State (TCU = host instead of the seed due to Indiana State hosting the Special Olympics): this cost Indiana State, as TCU took two straight to advance.
- Oregon v Oral Roberts (Oregon = host); Oral Roberts blew a 5 run lead in game one, and STILL managed to advance, becoming just the 3rd fourth-seed from a regional to make it to Omaha since the expansion to 64 teams. (Stony Brook and Fresno State).
- #7 UVA v Duke; Duke took out UVA in game one and looked good, but UVA took the next two to advance.
- #2 Florida v #15 South Carolina: Florida took two close ones from South Carolina to advance.
Super Regional predictions vs Actual: I only got 4 of 8 in my previous predictions.
CWS Field (with original national seeds driving the teams):
- Group 1 (1,4,5,8): Wake Forest, Tennessee, LSU, Stanford
- Group 2 (2,3,6,7): Florida, TCU, Oral Roberts, UVA.
Prospect Watch. From Nats perspective all eyes are still on LSU, but now Florida is here too, meaning 3 of the likely top 5 picks are in Omaha for a star studded CWS from a prospect/scouting perspective. Here’s Keith Law’s take on the 15 major draft prospects in Omaha.
- LSU: Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes, projected to go 1st and 2nd overall
- Florida: Wyatt Langford, projected top 5 pick, along with another arm in Hurston Waldrep as a 1st round projection. A bit further down: Brandon Sproat, Josh Rivera.
- Tennessee: Chase Dollander, who was in the 1-1 mix but who has struggled, continues to build up draft sock. A bit further down: Maui Atuna.
- Wake Forest: Their RHP Rhett Lowder is a possible top 10. 3B Brock Wilken end of 1st round. A bit further down: Sean Sullivan LHP.
- Virginia: their Catcher Kyle Teel and 3B Jake Gelof both top 50 prospects.
- Stanford: SS Tommy Troy is a mid-1st rounder
- TCU 3B Brayden Taylor an end of 1st rounder
So, lots of draft talent on display in Omaha.
My Predictions?
Group 1: Wake Forest over LSU in the group final, with Tennessee getting a win and Stanford going 2 and out.
Wake leads the nation in pitching … by a full POINT in team ERA. That’s amazing. And they’re no slouches at the plate either, as we’ve seen as they’ve averaged 15 runs a game in the post-season (they’re 5th in team OPS). So that’s a very balanced team. LSU likely throws Skenes in game one against Tennessee, but Tennessee’s been using Dollander as their 2nd starter, so they’ll throw him in an elimination game against Stanford to get an LSU rematch with both teams on their 3rd starter. But LSU’s pitching depth only goes so far, and Wake basically has 3 friday night starters to blow through the draw. Unless Skenes can get another start LSU will struggle to get past Wake and falls in the national semis.
Group 2: Virginia over Florida, with TCU and Oral Roberts finishing 3rd and 4th in some order. UVA leads the nation in team BA, is third in ERA, and will find a way to win. The problem is that UVA plays Florida in the opener and has proven to be a slow starter. But they’re deep and can withstand an early loss.
final: Wake over UVA in an all-ACC CWS final despite half the regional hosts being SEC.