Sizing up the top three teams in the NL East as the Nationals look to make up ground on the divisions elite
For the Nationals to get back into contention, they are going to overtake some of the titans of the National League in their own division. The NL East is an unforgiving landscape, where teams like the Mets, Phillies and Braves come into most seasons with championships on the mind. All three have stacked rosters and expect excellence year in and year out.
After finishing last or tied for last in the NL East for four straight seasons, the Nationals finally got out of the cellar of the division thanks to yet another Marlins rebuild. However, this year the team needs to make up some ground on the three top teams in the division. With 2019 getting further and further in the rear view mirror, uncompetitive seasons get less acceptable for the fanbase.
The Mets made the biggest splash of any team in the division when they signed former National Juan Soto to a record breaking $765 million deal. Even if you think the deal is an overpay, you cannot deny that Soto makes the Mets much more dangerous. He was added to a team that is coming off a run to the NLCS. The Mets also remain in the market for their long time slugging first baseman Pete Alonso. If they can bring him back, they will have one of the best lineups in baseball.
The Mets rotation is their biggest question mark, and has the potential to really harm their season. While it is pretty high upside, it is also very volatile. If Sean Manaea can sustain his 2024 form, Clay Holmes makes a smooth transition to the rotation, Kodai Senga stays healthy, and Frankie Montas has a Luis Severino type turnaround, it can be a strong group. However, there is a lot that can go wrong and it has the potential to blow up on them. Their GM David Stearns has a good track record of finding pitching on the margins, but this is one of the higher variance rotations in baseball. With the addition of AJ Minter, their bullpen should be solid. The Mets will always be a problem in the NL East as long as Steve Cohen is willing to splash the cash.
The team the Nationals have the best chance of catching up to in the next couple years is the Phillies. While they won the division, their roster is aging. Their core of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are all at least 31 years old. Those are the guys who have led them to their success over the past few years. While those guys will still be good enough to win a lot of games in 2025, things begin to get dicy for them in 2026 and beyond.
Their biggest offseason acquisition was Jesus Luzardo, who they got from the Marlins. While he was either injured or ineffective in 2024, he was a dynamic arm in 2022 and 2022. He is also just 27 years old. They shopped third baseman Alec Bohm for a lot of the offseason in an attempt to shake things up, but they never found a trade. The Phillies are a good team, but of the three heavy hitters in the NL East, they are the most vulnerable.
The Braves had a strange year in 2024. After an 104 win year in 2023, just about everything went wrong in Atlanta last season. Despite that, they still won 89 games and made the playoffs. If anything, it showed how high the Braves floor is. They lost Ronald Acuna, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris for extended periods last year. Acuna and Strider missed nearly all of the season. Matt Olson also had a down year at the plate.
The one guy on their roster everyone thought was injury prone in Chris Sale won the Cy Young award. Their offense was carried by Marcel Ozuna last year. It shows how many guys can drag the Braves to victory, and how deep of a core they have. Outside of signing Nats killer Jurickson Profar, the Braves have had a relatively quiet offseason. They also lost longtime rotation stalwart Max Fried to the Yankees in free agency.
There are longterm concerns about Acuna and Strider. Acuna has now had two ACL tears since 2021, making it interesting to see how he looks longterm. Likewise, Strider has now had two elbow surgeries. Those are arguably the two best players on the team and they have major injury concerns. However, with how well run the Braves are and how deep their core is, they are not going anywhere anytime soon.
The Nationals are going to have to crash this party in the next couple years. They are now at the point of the rebuild where we should be seeing results in the win-loss record. A third straight 71-91 season is not acceptable.
The competitive nature of the division is part of what makes this Nationals offseason a disappointment to me. You need to make big time moves to even finish third in this division. At the Winter Meetings, Mike Rizzo said it was time to hit the gas, but the statement move has not come. While the top of the division is driving Ferrari’s, Mike Rizzo is being forced to make it work with a Toyota Camry due to ownerships unwillingness to spend big.