The first of the five “major” shops/pundits that evaluate and rank prospects (BA, MLBPipeline, Law, Longenhagen, and McDaniel) released their top 30s for systems today…. and boy is the Nats list weird.
I’ll go through the list as always, offering up opinions and observations.
First off, here’s their top 30.
| ba | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 3 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 5 | King | Seaver | SS |
| 6 | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 7 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 8 | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 9 | Wallace | Cayden | 3B |
| 10 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 11 | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 12 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 13 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 14 | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 15 | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 16 | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 17 | Cortesia | Brayan | SS |
| 18 | Millas | Drew | C |
| 19 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 21 | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 22 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 23 | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 24 | Cranz | Robert | RHP (Reliever) |
| 25 | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 26 | Hernandez | Daniel | C |
| 27 | Nunez | Elijah | OF (Corner) |
| 28 | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 29 | Lord | Brad | RHP (Starter) |
| 30 | Romero | Brayan | RHP (Starter) |
Here we go.
top 10
- Same top 4 as everyone else, albeit dinging House a little bit. BA notes the same concerns that Law had with House, namely that he had like a 3% walk rate in AAA. I don’t think he’s ready for the Majors and can’t quite believe he’ll win the job out of MLB camp this spring, which would give him time to add some patience to his approach and not start his service time clock so early.
- Clemmey up at #6. I might be a little high on Clemmey in comparison to where i’m seeing him in other shops (the 5 rankings I have for him so far this off season go 6-7-6-6-6). Fair enough; he’s a young 19yr old who struck out 123 in 92 low-A innings. That doesn’t suck.
- Unlike some ranking shops who have given up hope on Cavalli, BA has him right there at #7. I’ve got him slightly lower based on fear that he’s not ever coming back, but BA has stayed strong.
- They’re super high on Lomavita at #8. This is a trend that we’ll see in this BA list the rest of the way; very bullish on brand new kids who have shown almost nothing yet at the pro level.
- I remain low-man on Lile, as discussed here multiple times, but BA having him at #10 tracks with most other shops.
Here’s 11-20.
- Ok, here’s where this starts to go off the rails. You have Dickerson at #11, who has zero pro at bats, and Hassell #12, who’s ended the season in AAA before he turned 23. Um. What are we doing here? Hassell likely gets MLB at bats THIS YEAR, even if he’s hitting .200 in AAA, because he’s now on the active roster. Dickerson may not even make the Low-A team in April. I get that prospect lists are a balancing act between floor and ceiling … but this one seems crazy to me.
- BA remembers how good Bennett was, and kept him exactly at #13, which is where they ranked him in Jan 2024. I wonder how quickly he gets back to High-A. Fairly or not, I’ve got him well lower on my rank, as do most other shops.
- The first appearance of 2025 IFA class star Brayan Cortesia on any ranking list, coming in at #17. With all due respect to his $1.9M bonus, this is way too high. Then again, I’m loath to rank a player anywhere in the top 30 these days until they make it to the FCL.
- Drew Millas at #18. Why? He’s frigging 27 and he’s a backup catcher as a ceiling and has been for five years. That’s not a prospect anymore; that’s called an org guy.
- How the hell is Andry Lara so low? I dunno, maybe i’m the only guy impressed by a guy with an ERA in the 3s as a 21yr old in AA never missing a start? Ok, maybe he’s not a top 5 prospect, but tell me you’d rather have Bennett (6 slots higher) than Lara right now.
- Rutledge at #20 ; they still have faith. I don’t. Unless he’s moving to the bullpen, what makes anyone think they’ll see anything different out of the guy in 2025?
21-30 … with obvious caveats about players in this range… but man there’s some crazy names here.
- Brzycky at #21: i’m on record saying this is too high for relievers, but whatever.
- Morales at #22. Wait, what?? Every other shop so far, including me, has him in the 8-9 range. #22?? In August of 2024, BA had him at #6 in the system, and in their scouting report they explicitly say that he had a thumb injury that hampered his production this year. Bennett misses a y ear to TJ and doesn’t get dinged a single slot, but Morales (who finished strong post injury) gets knocked down nearly 20 spots?? This makes no sense. But don’t worry, this isn’t even the dumbest ranking yet.
- At #24 I give you Robert Cranz. In case you don’t recognize the name, he was a 7th round pick in 2024, signed for $100k UNDER slot, was a reliever in college and went straight into Fredericksburg’s bullpen, where he threw a handful of playoff innings. #24 in the system. I didn’t have him in my top 90. In the scouting report it says the Nats may make him a starter … uh, if he could start, why didn’t he do so in college?? This ranking makes zero sense to me.
- Meanwhile, one slot later they have Tyler Stuart at #25, who STARTED 25 games last year between AA and AAA. I just don’t get it; you’d rank a college reliever with 6 pro innings higher than a starter who “solved” AA at age 24?
- Daniel Hernandez, 2025 IFA signing at #26. Sure.
- #27 Nasim Nunez, who had so few PAs last year that he still remains rookie eligible for shops like BA, who ignore service time. I wouldn’t have him this high, but wouldn’t be upset if someone ranked him in the 30s.
- Like Stuart, Brad Lord’s rise to AAA seems to be greeted at BA with a sniff. He’s at the back end of their top 30. Perhaps its just me impressed by what Lord has done. I think the knock on Lord is a lack of a 4th pitch. But, he’s a sinker guy, so often guys like this don’t bother learning two fastballs since their value is getting hitters to drive the ball into the ground.
- Rounding out the top 30, one last laugher; Brayan Romero. I almost wonder if this ranking is a joke to see if anyone’s paying attention. He posted a 5.52 ERA in Low-A this year as a 22yr old. Ok, so I understand he missed a season and he’s tooled up. But really.
Players they don’t have in their top 30 that I do:
- Chapparo: he’ll probably be on the MLB team, whether that counts for anything or not.
- Victor Hurtado and Armando Cruz: so we love Cortesia and his big bonus, but one-season-in Hurtado? Or Cruz, who (earned or not) ended the season in High-A?
- Darren Baker: I guess MLB-roster backup infielders aren’t as valuable as low-A middle releivers.
- Andrew Alvarez. Making AAA just doesn’t mean what it used to.
- Jackson Kent: wasn’t he the heralded arm out of the upper rounds of our 2024 draft? MLBPipeline has him in the mid 20s.
- Don’t forget about Rafael Ramirez
So, there you are. Strange one, this list was.