Is this finally the year where Keibert Ruiz takes the next step?
The Nationals have given Keibert Ruiz every opportunity to make the catchers position his own. Ruiz and Josiah Gray were the headliners in a trade that sent Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to the Dodgers. So far, neither has given the Nats what was expected at the time. Gray has been up and down, and is now dealing with injuries, but today we will focus on Ruiz.
After a solid first season in DC, where he posted 1.5 fWAR, the Nationals decided to give him an eight-year extension worth $50 million. It was a bold move for a franchise with a history of not retaining star position players.
However, in the two year since the extension, Ruiz has struggled to make an impact. In 2023, Ruiz had a solid offensive season, with a .717 OPS, a .260/.308/.409 triple slash, and 18 home runs. He was roughly a league average hitter, which is an asset because catchers tends to be a light hitting position. However, Ruiz was the worst defensive catcher in baseball in 2023. He accounted for an abysmal -23 fielding run value, looking lethargic behind the plate, and struggling to frame pitches.
To his credit, Ruiz cleaned up his defense in 2024. While it was not excellent by any means, a -5 fielding run value is a major improvement on 2023. Despite struggling to control the run game, he became an average framer and blocker, which is a big improvement on his 2023 performance.
In 2024, Ruiz’s bat fell off a cliff. His OPS dropped nearly 100 points, from .717 to .619. Ruiz, who has long been touted as an excellent contact hitter posted a paltry .229 batting average. Some of this can be explained away by an April illness that he returned too quickly from.
However, even in the second half, months removed from his illness, Ruiz still struggled at the plate. While his OPS jumped from .584 in the first half to .662 post-All Star break, neither mark is good enough. Ruiz was overly aggressive, and chased too many pitches. His 38.2 chase% ranks in the 4th percentile.
Expanding the zone meant more weak contact for Ruiz, who made a habit of popping pitches up and rolling over ground balls. His average exit velocity also dropped two MPH from 2023 to 2024. Some of that can be attributed to the illness, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Ruiz also never gets walked. He walked only 3.3% of the time, ranking in the second percentile. This puts a lot of pressure on him to post high batting averages and tap into his power in order to be a productive hitter. He has a much smaller margin of error, because he never gets free bases.
Since signing the extension, Ruiz has posted negative fWAR in back to back seasons. With the Nats taking college catchers with two of their first four picks in the 2024 draft, it is clear that the organization is starting to have some questions about Ruiz’s longterm future. He has not shown enough yet to be counted on as the guy.
Due to his contract and prospect pedigree, the Nationals will give Ruiz another shot in 2025. Unless Keibert can make a leap this season, the catching position feels like a weakness on the Nationals roster. It is getting harder to see the vision with Ruiz as we get deeper into his MLB career. His standout skill is not striking out, but it comes at the expense of his approach. Hopefully Ruiz can prove me wrong, but his star has certainly dimmed over the past couple years.