The young left hander has strikeout stuff and a high ceiling, but questions remain
Everything about DJ Herz game is a little bit unorthodox. From his funky mechanics to his unique arsenal, the 23 year old left hander is a tough nut to crack. There are some parts of his game that point to ace potential, but there are also some major flaws he has to iron out.
Herz came to DC in a trade that sent Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs. Throughout his minor league career, Herz wracked up the strikeouts and limited hits, but struggled throwing strikes. He walked 5.9 batters per nine innings over 321 minor league innings. However, his 12.8 strikeouts per nine and 5.6 hits per nine was enough to move him up the minor league latter.
After a few effectively wild starts in triple-A, Herz was called up to the big leagues in the beginning of June. In his 19 MLB starts, Herz had some dominant starts, including his 13 strikeout, no walk gem against the Marlins. However, there were also too many outings where Herz didn’t give the Nationals the depth they needed, failing to complete five innings eight times in 19 starts.
Outside of Mackenzie Gore, Herz has the best stuff of any of the Nationals young MLB starters. His fastball is a particularly prolific pitch. The heater generated whiffs at a 30.5% clip, the 10th best in baseball among pitchers who faced at least 100 batters. This is despite possessing below average velocity. The deception of his delivery, combined with movement made his fastball a weapon. Having an elite fastball to fall back on is incredibly valuable, and something most frontline starters possess. Herz also has a plus changeup, which was widely considered his best pitch while he was in the minors.
For Herz to take the next step, he will have to become more efficient. Given his command issues, he is never going to be a guy who is consistently giving six to seven innings per start. However, he has the potential to throw five or six innings on a consistent basis. In the modern era, you can be a very good starting pitcher doing that.
Heading into 2025, there are still a wide range of outcomes for Herz’s future. He will start the season in the Nationals rotation, and should get plenty of chances to stick as a starter. If everything clicks, he has the potential to be a number two starter. However, if the command and efficiency stall out, he might remain a frustrating “five and dive” starting pitcher or a reliever. Mike Rizzo has already won the Candelario trade by getting such a high potential arm. However, if Herz can develop, this could be a franchise altering fleecing.