Being used like a Swiss Army knife when he was built to be a scalpel
Not until the first week of February did Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo find his replacement for lefty Robert Garcia in the bullpen. He signed Colin Poche to a minor league contract.
In his five years with the Tampa Bay Rays, he was a reliable left-hander in the Rays bullpen, but was a casualty to their depth. The Rays made him available to Rizzo and the Nationals this past offseason.
So far, in his seven appearances this season, Poche looks nothing like the guy in Tampa Bay. Poche is leading Major League Baseball with a 32.1% BB rate while boasting a 16.61 ERA. Alarmingly bad, Making people ask the question… What happened?
First, let’s check the stats. The best website for such a thing, Baseball Savant, can help us dissect this struggling lefty a little bit deeper. Despite his ridiculous ERA, Poche’s Expected Batting Average (.192) and Expected Slugging Percentage (.325) show that he is not mainly getting thrashed because of pure contact.
What is hurting him is the deadly combination of walks and loud contact. His BB% has tripled from his career average and his barrel % has jumped to 15.4%. The highest of his career.
What makes things more interesting is that his HardHit% (46.2%) and Launch Angle Sweet Spot% (46.2%) are both career highs as well. This means when hitters aren’t barreling up the ball, they are still squaring it up at a dangerous rate.
While the numbers are ugly the underlying data shows that there is still a capable pitcher. The biggest problem with Colin Poche is his usage. During his time with Tampa Bay, Poche was a part of a tightly managed bullpen. He was deployed to mostly left-handed hitters in high-leverage spots that play to his strengths.
Now, with Washington, he is only one of two lefties. When he was on the Rays, he was a part of a group of four. The Nationals don’t have the luxury of shielding him, and that overexposure is beginning to show.
This logic makes sense to me when you think about Robert Garcia, who is thriving in Texas with a shiny 2.80 ERA. Garcia never quite reached that level during his time in Washington, and part of that reason could be his role.
For much of his stint with the Nationals, he was the only lefty in the bullpen, which forced him into tougher matchups, often against right-handers. It wasn’t until Jose A. Ferrer joined the bullpen that Garcia started to see more favorable, lefty-on-lefty opportunities. The Kind of matchups he is now consistently getting with the Rangers.
Sometimes, it’s not about the stuff you have. It is about the spot that you’re put in. It is going to be the main reason in my head why Poche is struggling. But that doesn’t explain the high BB%.
Rocking a 32.1 BB%, after having a career low (8.5%) and leading the league is not great thing to wear. Poche not being able to find the strike zone doesn’t come from bad matchups. He is either dealing with issues mentally or with his mechanics on top of being place in unfavorable situations. Let’s hope that Poche can find a way to get out of this career low slump.