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Fangraphs Nats Top 31 prospect list

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Cole Henry unleasing another pitch, hoping he doesn’t incur another arm injury. Photo via mlb.com

We’ll take a quick break from CWS to talk about prospect rankings.

So, believe it or not, the final major pundit in the prospect ranking space has finally dropped its “preseason ranking” list for the Nats. Kiley McDaniel and Fangraphs released their pre-season Nats top 31 list last week (its 31 instead of a more normal number because they drive the notable prospects by their internal “Future Value” rating, and the Nats happened to have exactly 31 guys meet the threshold; other teams had many more or far fewer).

McDaniel’s list is … well, its different. I’d say that more than half his rankings are what i’d describe as wild deviations from the rest of the industry. Lets get into it. Here’s his full list:

Fangraphs Rank Last Name First Name Position Yr
1 Wood James OF (Corner) 2021 2nd
2 House Brady SS/3B 2021 1st
3 Cavalli Cade RHP (Starter) 2020 1st
4 Vaquero Cristian OF (CF) 2022 IFA
5 Henry Cole RHP (Starter) 2020 2nd
6 Millas Drew C 2019 7th
7 Hassell III Robert OF (CF) 2020 1st
8 Susana Jarlin RHP (Starter) 2022 IFA
9 Baker Darren 2B 2021 10th
10 Lile Daylen OF (CF) 2021 2nd
11 Green Elijah OF (CF) 2022 1st
12 Rutledge Jackson RHP (Starter) 2019 1st
13 Bennett Jake LHP (Starter) 2022 2nd
14 Irvin Jake RHP (Starter) 2018 4th
15 Cruz Armando SS 2021 IFA
16 Acevedo Andy OF 2023 IFA
17 Pineda Israel C 2016 IFA
18 Shuman Seth RHP (Starter) 2019 6th
19 Ward Thad RHP (Starter) 2018 5th
20 Brzykcy Zach RHP (Reliever) 2020 NDFA
21 Alu Jake 3B 2019 24th
22 Lipscomb Trey 3B 2022 3rd
23 White T.J. OF (Corner) 2021 5th
24 Saenz Dustin LHP (Starter) 2021 4th
25 Willingham Amos RHP (reliever) ?
26 Parker Mitchell LHP (Starter) 2020 5th
27 Cate Tim LHP (Starter) 2018 2nd
28 Ferrer Jose LHP (Reliever) 2017 IFA
29 De La Rosa Jeremy OF (Corner) 2018 IFA
30 Ramirez Aldo RHP (Starter) 2018 IFA
31 Cox Brenner OF (CF) 2022 4th

So, commentary from the top:

  • The top of his list is ok: Wood, House, Cavalli, even given Cavalli’s TJ.
  • Vaquero at #4: we havn’t seen a rating this high for Vaquero since before the Soto trade pumped up the system with actual, real prospects and not bonus-dollar-amount prospects. This is just ridiculously speculative.
  • Cole Henry at #5 really puts a ton of stock into him recovering fully from TOS, which (ahem Stephen Strasburg) is just not a guarantee. Early reports on Henry are good, but so far in his collegiate and pro career he’s presenting as incredibly delicate.
  • Here’s where it starts getting weird: Drew frigging Millas is at #6, AHEAD of Robert Hassell. You know where MLBpipeline had Millas? 30th. Baseball America? 25th. Prospects1500? 38th. Keith Law? Not even mentioned in his top 30. I mean, i get that he’s done well so far this year, but this was supposed to be a pre-season list, and the dude hit .211 in AA last year. Furthermore, he’s projecting as a backup catcher at the MLB level! I don’t get it.
  • Darren Baker getting some deserved love, up at #9 when many shops don’t even rank him.
  • Daylen Lile at #10. He hit .219 in rookie ball two years ago then missed all of 2022 with TJ, but he’s #10 in the system ahead of a guy in Elijah Green that some pundits have at #2.
  • Green at #11. Crazy low, as was Hassell.
  • No love for Jake Bennett, dropping him out of top 10 to #13. I’m thinking his 2023 performance so far will correct that going forward.
  • Andy Acevedo, the next in a long line of Nats prospects ranked highly b/c they got a lot of money in the IFA signing window despite nobody knowing a thing about them. Tell me; why is a 16yr old prospect in the DSL more highly ranked, ever, than a college guy whos in AAA? I honestly wonder why anyone who’s never even made it to a domestic league is ranked, ever.
  • Seth Shuman gets some love at #18, though i’m not sure why. He had lesser numbers than a guy like Parker at the same level, and is out for the entirety of 2023, but he’s ranked higher.
  • TJ White dumped to #23 when most shops have him at #10. Did we not count 2022 for White?
  • Dustin Saenz ranked at #24 when nobody else is ranking him at all. Interesting, especially since he’s lighting it up right now (finally) and may get promoted soon.
  • A first time for Amos Willingham to get ranked anywhere; this 17th rounder from 2019 has started 2023 on a roll, being basically unhittable in AA and earning a promotion to AAA.
  • Tim Cate hanging on at #27, an odd choice given the other rankings here.
  • Lastly, Jeremy De La Rosa, a stalwart in the top 10, comes in at #29. It seems to be because fangraphs has given the guy like a 20 hit tool.

Notable Omissions:

  • Andry Lara: outside the top 31, Generally in the 12-15 range on other lists. I mean, I get it; the guy hasn’t performed in either low-A or high-A. He’s also 20; if he was from the US he’d be a sophomore pitching in a regional right now, not in high-A.
  • Roismir Quintana: outside their top 31, usually in the 15-18 range. He was on the FCL all star team last year, but apparently has been squeezed out of the low-A OF and is playing 1B this year. A 6’1″ 1B only bat better hit the tar out of the ball, and he hasn’t.
  • Matt Cronin: Outside top 31 on fangraphs, usually at least mentioned in the low 20s elsewhere. I guess lefty relievers don’t get a ton of prospect love.
  • Jared McKenzie: Not a huge omission, just noting that others have him in their mid 20s.
  • Gerardo Carrillo; how far this guy has fallen, from AA starter prospect to a full season injury early in 2023. Not sure what it was, but it smells like TJ.

So, at long last, that’s the end of the Nats prospect rankings for the season. Here’s a link to each list: