Law just released his top 20 for the Nats system.
Keith Law has always been somewhat of a contrarian in these prospect rankings, and for good reason. His methodology for each year basically throws out last year’s results and starts over, which allows him to break free of a “prospect-retention” paradigm that plagues some ranking shops. This logic eliminates players like Elijah Green, who has performed so terribly in low-A but who was so highly regarded (and highly paid) as an upper-1st rounder in 2022. It also basically eliminates high-bonus IFA guys who have scuffled in the low minors (a methodology I agree with as well). As a result, Law often ends up with some names ranked in places that we havn’t seen before, which we’ll cover below.
Law also proven himself, especially this year, as a talent evaluator who isn’t afraid to dream on newly drafted players, especially college players, and may have some of them over-drafted.
Law’s stuff is behind a paywall, so y ou miss out on his per-player evaluations (which are insightful), but here’s his top 20:
| Rank | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | King | Seaver | SS |
| 3 | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 5 | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 6 | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 7 | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 8 | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 9 | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 10 | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 11 | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 12 | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 13 | Wallace | Cayden | 3B |
| 14 | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 15 | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 16 | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 17 | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 18 | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 19 | Diaz | Randal | SS/3B |
| 20 | Cranz | Robert | RHP (Reliever) |
As is tradition, lets run through this list top to bottom.
- It goes without saying that so far, Law is tops on Seaver King, having him at #2 in the system. We knew this was coming b/c when Law released his top 100 for the entirety of the Minors two weeks ago, King was listed ahead of Sykora. Law projects him as a SS in the majors, with great speed, sneaky power, but his hit tool is the best. Can’t wait to see him in Wilmington this year.
- The rest of the top 5 is as expected, in about the expected order. He’s worried about Sykora’s mechanics (but, to be fair, Law is worried about a lot of pitcher’s mechanics), worried about House’s lack of BB rate in AAA, and worried about Susana’s inability to get LHB out.
- Quick deeper dive into Susana, because I think some of this stuff is fascinating. Here’s his fangraphs page. For the entirety of 2024, he had a BABIP of .372. .372!! That’s ridiculous, and is why his ERA was in the 4s but his FIP was in the 2s. You don’t often see a full 2-point delta between pitchers’ ERA and FIP. Here’s his MILB stats page with 2024 splits. Law pointed out that LHB had a .407 OBP against him last year; he had a 1.98 WHIP against lefties versus a 0.97 whip against righties. He attributes this to his 3/4 slot and lack of command. It sounds to me like he needs to develop a change-up that can keep lefties off-balance. The thing is, these are fringe issues with a guy who also hits 100, holds upper 90s deep into games, and doesn’t have a ton of effort in his delivery. I cannot wait to see what he does when he hits AA.
- Coming in at #6: Bazzell. Phew, by far the high man on this guy. Most other shops have him in the 14-15 range. I sense his ranking is assuming that Bazzell hits like he did in college AND plays Catcher; if he’s playing 3B he’s not quite as high of a prospect. With both Bazzell and Lomavita drafted in the same draft, one has to think one is going to Low-A and the other to High-A. I find it kind of interesting that Law has Bazzell so much higher than Lomavita, who was drafted ahead/paid out more in the same draft. Honestly, this is too high for Bazzell.
- He has Dickerson inside the top 10, entirely on tools. I also think this is too high, especially for a cold-weather prep kid who hasn’t yet taken a pro at bat. Like with IFAs, I like to see at least some production in the FCL before saying someone is a top 10 prospect.
- Some love for Tyler Stuart, one of a handful of AAA starters we were just talking about as generally being underrated by prospect watchers (along with Lord and Alvarez). Remember: Baseball America had Stuard #25.
- Morales at #12. Law had Morales ranked #6 this time last year, and in his writeup he freely admits that a) Morales had a hand injury all year and b) he “seemed” ok once he returned in August. So, like all the other shops that have dropped him … i’m just kind of at a loss. I have him #6 on my list, right now, and I don’t plan on dropping him.
- He has Lile down at #14. And, it’s almost like he was reading the comments i’ve been making about him. Here’s a direct quote from Law about Lile: “Lile might be a tweener, lacking the power for an outfield corner and with just a fringe-average defense in center, leaving him in Fourth Outfielder Town, which is only two stops away from DFAville.” EXACTLY what i’ve been saying for a while now in the comments. Honestly, if Lile blows up and starts hitting .330 this year, we should just trade him. There’s more and better outfielders already in the majors, and more and better CF prospects in the minors behind him.
- He’s just slightly lower on Lara than most others. Unlike Susana above, his BABIP upon reaching AA was really low, which blows up his FIP as compared to his actual ERA. His per-pitch scouting report basically shows him with slider as his #1 pitch, and the other three being 40s or 45s. That’s not good. I’ll be curious to see how this plays out, but Law is predicting him to be a 2-pitch middle reliever despite being so young and projecting to the AAA rotation.
- Hassell at #16. I think Its time for me to just admit that Hassell may not be the top-end prospect I have hoped for. Law prints a shocking stat: “He didn’t have a single extra-base hit off a lefty in 76 PA last year, and had just three (all doubles) off them in 2023, for a .218 slugging percentage off southpaws over two years.” That is patently amazing. Here’s his 2024 splits. Indeed: 61 ABs versus LHPs last year and zero XBH for a slash line of .213/.319/.213. Here’s something else interesting: he was legitimately good leading off (.285/.363/.381) but patently awful when batting lower in the order. Is that someone who’s literally pouting b/c he’s not leading off? So strange. Nonetheless, its hard to ignore this, and a full season in AAA with lefty specialists may do even more to expose him.
- Made at #17: i just don’t get it. I have him in the mid-30s and even that’s a stretch. But Law seems to admit the same, saying, “This is almost a placeholder — he has enough of a base of other skills to be a utility infielder, as long as he starts to hit the ball harder. If he doesn’t do that, he’s not a prospect.” At this point, i’m leaning towards the latter, having him buried in the mid 30s. Honestly, if you had to rank SS in our system right now, you’d go MLB starter: Abrams, MLB backups: Nunez/Rosario. AAA depth: Lipscomb, Made, then you have mid-minors prospects with promise like Cruz, King, and Diaz, Ramirez (who should be your AA, High-A, and Low-A starters in 2025), then you’ve got prep/DSL prospects with promise like Dickerson and Feliz. So, not a lot of pure prospect depth in the system of for-real guys who project to stick at SS … but if Made is hitting .220 in AA and you have 1st rounder Seaver King waiting in the wings producing in High-A … what are you gonna do? Made may only be 22 but he’s certainly at a cross-roads where he has to prove he’s not the next coming of Nasim Nunez.
Ok, so here’s where I have to eat some crow, having blasted BA’s list. Because the last two guys on Law’s list are surprises for sure.
- #19: 2024 5th rounder Randal Diaz. This is a first time ranking anywhere for Diaz, and coming out of the 2024 draft he was not one of the handful of guys I even was projecting into the top 50. It’s one thing to rank our top bonus guys in our top 20 automatically (King, Lomavita, Dickerson, and Bazzell). It is another to do down-ballot prospect ranking, especially for under-slot 2nd day guys like Diaz and Cranz. I guess Diaz has gotten some attention lately thanks to his making the Puerto Rican national team; if he’s a sneaky good 2nd day draft pick for us, all the better. He’ll presumably get the Low-A starting SS job and we’ll see how it goes.
- #20 2024 7th rounder Robert Cranz. BA also rated Cranz relatively highly, having him come in at #24. Law thinks Cranz is a 4-pitch guy who may start. But, again, as i said in the BA review … if he is a 4-pitch starter quality guy, why didn’t he frigging start in college?? I took a quick glance at OK State’s baseball stats for 2024: they had two guys who were full time Fri/Sat starters, then gave Sunday and midweek starts to a slew of guys while keeping Cranz basically as a stopper, not even the closer (just 2 saves). I mean, yes there’s value to a guy like that, but there’s more value to having a guy who can go 6ip with 1r. So I repeat the same thing I asked in the last post; if Cranz was this good, why the F wasn’t he starting in college? Are Oklahoma State’s baseball staff so stupid as to think that a middle reliever provides more value than a starter? Because more and more, that’s what its looking like; a patent failure in talent evaluation at that program.
Honorable mentions: these clearly aren’t the guys ranked 21-25, but he calls out a few notables. Sam Peterson, Angel Feliz (who i’ve mentioned already and who is in my top 20), Ramirez, Vaquero, and Sir Jamison Jones.
players not on his top 20 of note:
- Feliz: who did produce as a big $ IFA and who is at the back-end of my top 20.
- Lord, mentioned before as not really being a flashy guy but who produced like crazy in 2024.
- No love for Pinckney, even if the Nats have given him a NRI invite two years in a row.
- No mention of our 2025 IFA signings, which is common with law; he’s like me and wants to see some production and not just ranking of the signing bonus.
- Green, as discussed ad nauseum.