Mackenzie Gore has shown a ton of flashes, but he needs to put it together for a full season
Like a lot of the Nationals team, Mackenzie Gore has shown flashes, but hasn’t put it all together yet. However, he is further along in his maturation process than a lot of the teams youngsters. In 2024, Gore posted a 3.90 ERA and 3.53 FIP in 166.1 innings. This makes him a productive MLB pitcher, but there is still so much more in the tank for the 25 year old.
Gore’s 3.53 FIP, which was top 20 among qualified pitchers shows that he can take a step even if he doesn’t make any improvements. However, I believe Gore can take a leap as a pitcher. There was a great video by pitching analyst Lance Brozdowski that highlights some potential changes Gore could make to his pitch mix (link here). He also compared Gore to Yusei Kikuchi, who made tweaks to his arsenal that saw his production explode, and theorized about Gore making similar changes.
These changes could take Gore from a solid, above average big league starter and turn him into the ace the Nationals want him to be. He has so much upside, and is still very young for a starting pitcher. A lot of the games best starters do not take that massive leap into being an ace until later in their 20’s. Max Scherzer is a great example of this. He did not make his first all-star game until he was 28 years old, but it was always clear he had great stuff.
Gore has a habit of having a summer swoon. He always starts the season very well, until he tails off around June. At the end of May this year, Gore had an ERA of 2.91. However, by August 6th, that ERA had ballooned to 4.66. A strong finish saved Gore’s season and significantly brightened his 2025 outlook. However, if he can avoid such a steep drop-off in the middle of the season, we could be looking at something special.
One thing to watch for is what Gore’s fastball velocity will look like. His fastball went from 95 MPH in 2023 to 96 MPH in 2024. In the first couple months, he was sitting around 97 MPH before seeing his velo drop a little as the season went on. If he can sustain that velocity, or even get back to early 2024 levels, it would help his whole arsenal.
Gore has the highest ceiling of any Nats pitcher on the roster. His fastball is fantastic, even if it was slightly overused in 2024. He also has a plethora of quality secondary pitches, as well as pretty good command when he is at his best. Gore has the ability to be a monster, and the Nationals need him to come through. He is the only pitcher on the roster with any capability of being a true ace.
There are other solid pitchers on the team, the rotation does not work as designed if Gore does not take the next step. You cannot have a rotation full of number 4 starters, and if the pitchers on the Nats roster stagnate, there are a bunch of 4 and 5 starters. For the Nationals rotation to avoid mediocrity, Mackenzie Gore needs to take a leap.