Jace Laviolette entered the season as a favorite to go number one in the draft, but his slow start has been concerning
Texas A&M outfielder Jace Laviolette entered the season with a big chance of going number one overall to the Washington Nationals. He was number 2 on MLB Pipeline’s rankings and number 1 on Baseball America. However, a slow start to his draft season has given scouts some cause for concern.
The biggest flaw in Jace Laviolette’s game has always been the hit tool. MLB Pipeline gave it a below average 45 grade heading into the season. However, he did so many other things at a high level. He has truly elite power and is a good athlete for his hulking 6’6 230 pound frame. The hope with Laviolette is that he can become a 40 home run bat who walked a lot to make up for his strikeout concerns.
Instead of improving, it seems like the outfielder has regressed in his junior year. So far, he is hitting just .243 with a near 30% strikeout rate. Keep in mind that this is against weaker non conference opposition, not the high end SEC pitching he will face later in the season. There are also reports that Laviolette is looking less athletic than he has in prior years.
For me, the risk is too high for the Nats to take Laviolette at number 1. As we have seen with Elijah Green, hit tool concerns can derail even the best athletes. While Laviolette has a better hit tool than Green, having produced against SEC pitching, it is still a question mark.
There are guys with safer projections in this draft, who also have plenty of upside. Guys like Jamie Arnold and Aiva Arquette are dominating the competition this season. While Laviolette has time to turn it around, he is not answering any of the questions he had to answer. In fact, there are even more questions now than there were heading into the season.
This is not to disparage the player. He will still be a top 10, likely top 5 pick, but there is too much risk for number 1. There are actually a lot of similarities to James Wood in his game. Laviolette is a big guy with power and patience, but also surprising athleticism. However, the Nationals can’t afford to draft a bust at this spot. Laviolette might have the highest ceiling in the draft, but the floor is very low.
The race for the number one pick will be followed very closely here at Federal Baseball. As we get closer to the draft, we will also look at second and third round targets. With a massive bonus pool, the Nationals will have a chance to play the board and draft a franchise changing collection of players.
Last year was a test run for the new draft room led by Brad Ciolek and Danny Haas. However, this is the year where they can truly put their imprint on the organization. This is going to be one of the most important drafts in Nationals history. Hopefully this is the last time they pick in the top 5 for a long time. With that in mind, they need to nail the number one pick, and Jace Laviolette has too many questions for me.