The boys at MLBPipeline (Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo, et al) have done a mid-season reshuffling of all 30 teams’ prospect lists, and the Nats system looks demonstrably different in the wake of the draft, trades, and over/under performance of some players.
This is a discussion of where the system stands as per one of the leading pundits in the game.
Below is the current top 30 (also online at this link, which is dynamic and shows the current status of the list at all times). I’ve added a new column that looks at the last few MLBpipeline top 30 releases, going back to the Mar 2024 initial list, to show the general range of where players have been the entire time as a comparison to where they are now.
| Rank Now | Ranks Earlier 2024 | Last Name | First Name | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-2 always | Crews | Dylan | OF (CF) |
| 2 | 3 | House | Brady | SS/3B |
| 3 | 10-13 range | Sykora | Travis | RHP (Starter) |
| 4 | 11-12 range | Susana | Jarlin | RHP (Starter) |
| 5 | not yet drafted | King | Seaver | SS |
| 6 | not yet acquired | Clemmey | Alex | LHP (Starter) |
| 7 | not yet drafted | Dickerson | Luke | SS/CF |
| 8 | 4-5 range | Cavalli | Cade | RHP (Starter) |
| 9 | 4-5 range | Morales | Yohandy | 3B |
| 10 | not yet drafted | Lomavita | Caleb | C |
| 11 | not yet acquired | Wallace | Cayden | 3B |
| 12 | 7-9 range | Lile | Daylen | OF (CF) |
| 13 | 8-10 range | Hassell III | Robert | OF (CF) |
| 14 | not yet drafted | Bazzell | Kevin | C/3B |
| 15 | 13-15 rage | Hurtado | Victor | OF |
| 16 | 20-24 range | Feliz | Angel | 3B/SS |
| 17 | 27-30 range | Lara | Andry | RHP (Starter) |
| 18 | 13-14 range | Bennett | Jake | LHP (Starter) |
| 19 | not yet acquired | Stuart | Tyler | RHP (Starter) |
| 20 | not yet acquired | Ramirez Jr. | Rafael | SS |
| 21 | 6-8 range | Green | Elijah | OF (CF) |
| 22 | 18-20 range | Brzykcy | Zach | RHP (Reliever) |
| 23 | 9-10 range | Vaquero | Cristian | OF (CF) |
| 24 | not yet drafted | Kent | Jackson | LHP (Starter) |
| 25 | 19-21 range | Made | Kevin | SS |
| 26 | 28-30 range | Grissom | Marquis | RHP (Reliever) |
| 27 | 15-16 range | Rutledge | Jackson | RHP (Starter) |
| 28 | 17-18 range | Pinckney | Andrew | OF (Corner) |
| 29 | 30+ range | Ribalta | Orlando | RHP (reliever) |
| 30 | 35+ range | Lord | Brad | RHP (Starter) |
| 30+ | 29-30 range | Cox | Brennar | OF (CF) |
| 30+ | 26-28 range | Cruz | Armando | SS |
| 30+ | 25-28 range | White | TJ | OF (Corner) |
| 30+ | 24-27 range | Saenz | Dustin | RHP (Starter) |
| 30+ | 22-25 range | Baker | Darren | 2B/OF |
| 30+ | 21-23 range | Henry | Cole | RHP (Starter) |
| 30+ | 23-26 range | De La Rosa | Jeremy | OF (Corner) |
Here’s some thoughts on the current top 30 on this list, how they’ve risen/fallen, plus all the names who have appeared in MLBPipeline’s top 30 lists this year who are now pushed out, and then at the bottom a list of all the graduations. All stats listed are as of my looking them up and writing them here on 8/14/24.
- With Wood’s graduation, Dylan Crews ascends to #1. He’s got an .814 OPS figure in AAA this year, which sounds good … but when you compare his 2024 to what his fellow top 5 college draftees are doing (Skenes; started ASG. Langford, destroyed minor league pitching and started the season in the majors) he almost seems like a disappointment right now. I think its slightly telling that the team has now called up four different hitters (Blankenhorn, Call, Tena, Chapparo) instead of Crews in the wake of trades and releases.
- House Remains #2. He finally got pushed to AAA, where he’s got a sub-300 OBP figure. But, it’s also telling to remember he’s 21. If he had gone to college, he’d have just been drafted a month ago and would be sitting in XST.
- Sykora and Susana now 3/4 in the system. And as they should be, based on their complete dominance this season. Sykora should have been promoted already with the numbers and accolades he’s got in the last month. Sykora even made his way onto the MLBpipeline top 100 for all the minors. Meanwhile, Susana is now #61 on ESPN/Kiley McDaniels top 100 for the entire minors. That’s pretty impressive.
- Our big-3 round 2024 draftees (King, Dickerson, Lomavita) come in at #5, #7, and #10. Only a handful of our 2024 draftees have even made it out of XST (the above three plus Bazzell), and only King & Lomavita have been assigned to a real team for their pro debuts as of this writing.
- Clemmey comes in at #6. Is this a little high? Perhaps. But it is telling that in his first pro season he went straight into the low-A rotation and has been there the entire time, with massive K/9 numbers and decent BAA, even if his ERA and WHIP show a lot of room for improvement.
- Cavalli has slipped, from a consensus top 3 to now #8 on this list. I don’t blame them; A 12-month recovery has now been delayed by “dead arm” and “the flu” and perhaps next week we’ll hear that he has the bubonic plague and then maybe after that a mysterious soft tissue injury.
- Morales is also slipping, though he was injured for a big chunk of this season. He’ll need another year at AA just to get his value back. Meanwhile, he’s being passed on the pecking order for 1B/DH types (since he’ll be completely blocked by House at 3B), and will need to bash his way up over the likes of Yepez, Chapparo, Meneses, Blankenhorn, and whichever veteran FA/Joey Gallo v2.0 we sign this off-season
- Cayden Wallace at #11 just got dumped to the 60-day DL; per some googling, he has an Oblique Strain and has been out since first week of May. Does that sound like a long time for that injury? We’re at 3 months.
- Lile, Hassell, and Hurtado are all treading water, being lower on the list than they were earlier but all due to initial placements above them pushing them down. Nothing to report here for now. These guys aren’t impressing or overly disappointing for now.
- Angel Feliz has gotten bumped up decently, from the 20-24 range to #16 here. The 17yr old SS made the DSL all-star team and is slashing .308/.385/.449 this year. Wow, when was the last time we had a solid hitter matriculate out of the DSL? Luis Garcia? Juan Soto? It’s early, but after the sh*t show that was the 2023 IFA class, its refreshing to at least have a couple guys who look like they’ll move on. By the way, as far as I can tell the best hitter out of the 23IFA class right now is looking like Carlos Tavarez, a 1B/OF who had a .869 OPS figure in the FCL this year. Not one other 23IFA who even made it to the mainland had an OPS figure much above .600 (Marcano, Soto, Acevedo, Batista, Maricuto, and Arias).
- Andry Lara now sits in the #17 spot, having moved up from the 27-30 range. Um; ok. He’s 21 and in AA, where he’s been for most of the year after dominating the first month of High-A. If he was playing by American rules he’d be sitting in XST right now. For me he’s a lot better prospect than #17. I think this is a top 10 prospect.
- Green: significantly dropped to #21 from the 6-8 range, and before that even higher. We’ve debated Green for a while in this space. His stat line is comical this year: .198 BA and a ridiculous 171 Ks in 88 games. He’s repeating low-A. I agree with Keith Law’s take on Green, where he called out Green by name as a golden example of a player who NEEDED the former Short-A league that’s now gone. Instead he’s jumped straight to low-A and has had to stick there. I hope he can rebound, I really do, but his prospect rank is where it deserves to be for now.
- Brzycky, Grissom, Ribalta: I just don’t see why RHP relievers are ranked as prospects. They come in at 22, 26, 30 on these rankings. They’re fungible, replaceable assets who generally are good one year (Rainey in 2020 and 2022, Weems in 2023) then awful the next (Rainey in 2021 and 2024, Weems in 2022 and then again in 2024). Ribalta just got called up; i wouldn’t be surprised if he had a 2.00 ERA this year and a 6.00 era next or vice versa. It’s like ranking backup middle infielders or 4th outfielders.
- Pinckney has taken a fall in the rankings; his swing looked long and slow in spring training and it hasn’t really improved. 119 Ks in 108 games for just 6 homers isn’t going to cut it. I know a lot of readers here were super high on him coming out of Alabama, but he may have plateaued already. He may get pushed up to AAA at some point, but where does he fit in?
- Lord coming in at #30. Not sure what else you want the guy to do; he’s the same draft as Tyler Stuart who is ranked 10 spots higher but is a level below him. If Lord was a 2nd rounder he’d be in the top 100 right now. He’s now been in the AAA rotation for nearly 2 months (8 starts) and he’s still holding a 3.27 ERA there.
Guys who were in the top 30 but who are now pushed out:
- Brenner Cox: He’s getting a long run as a starter in low-A w/o the batting average to sustain it.
- Armando Cruz: ranked solely b/c of his signing bonus for a while, he just got an undeserved promotion to High-A so that Seaver King could start in Fredericksburg.
- TJ White remains in the 19-20 range for other pundits but is now outside top 30 for MLBpipeline. Not sure why some pundits still rate him; he’s hitting .202 as he repeats high-A.
- Dustin Saenz: Seemed like a possible sneaky starter prospect like a Parker or Lord, but got hurt and has struggled in his return from the DL in AA.
- Darren Baker: has played a solid season in AAA but has not gotten an opportunity since neither Vargas or Nunez has gotten hurt. Has been playing a ton of LF to give him some positional flexibility, but he remains a power-less slap hitter at a time when you need to have some power no matter where you play.
- Cole Henry: what are we going to do with this guy? He was our #3 prospect for a while post draft, but just can’t seem to stay healthy.
- Jeremy De La Rosa: was hopefully the last example of a ridiculous 40-man addition that this team will make, putting a guy on the roster who was in low-A and had zero chance of getting picked. He was dfa’d out outrighted in November 2023, which means we can’t ever outright him again. He played well to start the season in low-A, earned a promotion but hasn’t hit since. He got promoted to AA in July to fill the gaps left when Crews got bumped up and Hassell got hurt, but he didn’t deserve it. He’s continued to hit sub .200 since and probably should be back in A-Ball.
Anyone else worth mentioning?
- Andrew Alvarez: i’m not sure they’ve ever ranked him, but he’s in the AAA rotation and faces an interesting Rule-5 dilemma this off-season.
- Acevedo and Solano, our two $1.3M 2023IFA signings: nowhere to be seen.
- Rodney Theophile and Michael Cuevas: youngsters in the AA rotation mix; I wonder if they can get some prospect love soon.
- How about Jose Atencio, 22yr old doing well in High-A rotation?
Graduations from Mar 2024:
- Trey Lipscomb: 29-32 range; has struggled in the majors, which fits given his prospect status. An infielder in the 20s would have a ceiling as a backup, and that seems to be where he is right now.
- Jacob Young: 17-18 range: As is often discussed, he’s drastically outperforming his prospect ranking, and sits 2nd on the 2024 team in bWAR behind Abrams. It’s almost entirely on the strength of his defense though since he has an 85 OPS+ figure.
- James Wood: 1-2 range: has not disappointed in his MLB debut; 134 OPS+ as of this writing.
- Mitchell Parker: 20-22 range: has drastically outperformed his prospect status since arriving in the majors, which is being attributed to the Nats pitching staff. But he’s been out-performing his reputation his entire pro career.
- DJ Herz: 12-14 range: He’s performing as I would have expected Parker to do, based on prospect reputation … 4.41 ERA, 91 ERA+. He probably needs more AAA time.
- Note: I agree with those shops that stick by 50ip/150ABs versus service time for Rookie status, but the following three guys are “graduated” per service time.
- Drew Millas: 18-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs): hitting well enough in AAA but didn’t hit at all when he spelled Riley Adams on the MLB roster. He’ll be #3 on our 3-catcher depth chart for the forseeable future.
- Nasim Nunez: 19-20 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). I’m amazed he’s lasted this long based on his utter lack of any performance, and he’s done little to make me think he’s really even a prospect honestly. He’ll go to AAA and sit there for 3 years as a spare-part infielder.
- Israel Pineda: 26-28 range (graduated by service time not by ABs). He’s much younger than Millas, but where has his bat gone? He hit .280 in 2022 in a AA call-up, but is now hitting .157 there two years on.