The Nationals new first baseman brings a high floor, but can provide the power the Nats need
The acquisition of Nathaniel Lowe gives the Nationals a high end first baseman, something they haven’t had for years. Lowe has been an above average hitter every year he has been in the big leagues, giving the Nationals a high floor player. The only question is how high is Lowe’s ceiling. While he is not a Pete Alonso in terms of power, he brings a lot to the table.
In 2022, showed he could be one of the better hitters in baseball. He hit .302, with an .851 OPS, as well as a career high 27 home runs. However, he has been unable to replicate that in the two following seasons. Lowe has still been a quality hitter, but his power has not been the same since 2022. In 2023, he hit 17 home runs and in 2024 he hit 16.
Lowe is well aware of the need to hit for more power. In his news conference, he said he was looking to get back to his power production. Getting Lowe back to a 25 home run level would make him one of the better first baseman in all of baseball. While he has lost some power, Lowe has improved other aspects of his game since 2022.
In 2022, Lowe was a negative defender at first base, posting -10 outs above average. However, he has been a gold glove caliber defender since then. He won the award in 2023, and was a finalist in 2024. Lowe has the defensive ability to bail out some of the Nationals young infielders. Lowe has a lot of similarities to Christian Walker, a first baseman the Nationals coveted in free agency who ended up signing with the Astros.
He has also become a much more patient hitter the last couple years. After walking at an average 7.4% clip in 2022, he has been over 12% each of the last two seasons. This plate discipline is a reason why Lowe’s offensive floor is so high. However, this patience might be a reason why his power production has been down. It is notable that Lowe hit for more power when he was more aggressive at the plate. Lowe’s patience might have bordered on passivity. The Nationals could help him maintain that patience while making him more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone.
Even if Lowe is the player he has been the last couple seasons, that is a massive upgrade for the Nationals at first base. Since Josh Bell left, it has been a revolving door at first base. Dominic Smith, Joey Gallo, Joey Meneses, and Juan Yepez have tried and failed to hold down the cold corner long term. Lowe will be able to stabilize the position. He brings the defensive ability that Dominic Smith brought to the table, while possessing much more offensive upside.
Will Lowe be a nice piece, or will he be a needle mover? That remains an open question. Unless he gets back to hitting for the power he did in 2022, he will be more of a nice piece and stabilizing presence. If he can hit for more power, while maintaining most of his plate discipline and defensive ability, you have a borderline star on your hands. Getting Lowe for the price of Robert Garcia, an interesting but inconsistent reliever, is a great deal. Lowe brings a high floor, and a level of professionalism the Nats need, while having some untapped upside, even at 29 years old.
The Nationals still have a lot of work to do this offseason. Their hole in the bullpen is even larger after trading away one of their better relievers. Lowe also doesn’t bring the guaranteed power the Nationals need. With the DH spot open, look for the Nats to bring in another bat. However, Lowe will be a quality every day first baseman, something the Nationals have not had in a while.