12/1/21 is the non-tender deadline for this year. It also happens to be “National MLB lockout day” as the existing CBA expires between the owners and players … but for the purposes of this post, we’ll assume that some normal baseball transactions will occur. and because of this uncertainty, the two sides agreed to move up the non-tender deadline a couple of days so as to at least not leave a bunch of edge-of-the-roster guys hanging for months.
(Like a lot of our posts, they’re recurring features. Here’s links to prior years: 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011. I’m not sure why i didn’t do it last year, or in 2016, but we’re back).
As of 11/19/21, when the Nats protected Donovan Casey and Evan Lee ahead of the rule-5 draft, the 40-man roster sat at 39 players. The team’s off-season moves included a waiver claim (Francisco Perez), a re-signing (Alcides Escobar), the returning of three players to the active roster off the 60-day DL (Strasburg, Harris, JRoss), and the two Rule-5 protections.
This doesn’t leave much room for a number of FA moves we think the team needs to make this off-season. Luckily, we have a slew of guys who are “Non-Tender candidates.” We also have a slew of guys who are out of options, or who are on the edges of the roster right now who could make way if/when we need space to sign guys. For today though we’re talking about the non-tender candidates. “Non-tender” candidates are arbitration-eligible players who need to be “tendered” a contract offer by 11/30/21, which is thus a promise to enter into arbitration at a later date to negotiate a 2022 salary.
We have at least 6 and likely 10 arbitration candidates on the roster (more on this later), many of them coming off off really poor seasons. For the arbitration salary estimates we’ll use a combination of the predicted Arb salaries from MLBtraderumors.com, the projected salaries from Cots/Fangraphs, and my own opinion. Lets run through all 10 players and give some opinions on tendering.
- Juan Soto. Arb2, projected salary $16-$17M. He made $8.5M this year, finished 2nd in MVP voting, and is already being linked in the sport to a potential $500M contract. Tender Decision: Obviously he will be tendered.
- Josh Bell Arb3, projected salary $10-$11M. He made $6.35M this year. He’s given the Nats everything they could have hoped for after trading for him and hoping for a bounce-back from his awful 2020. Tender Decision: an obvious tender.
- Victor Robles: Arb1, projected salary $1.5-$1.75M. Yes, he ended the year in AAA. He’s still considered a valuable piece and there’s no way they cut him loose at this point to save $1.5M. Goes into 2022 though behind Lane Thomas on the depth chart and might be competing with Stevenson for the 4th OF job (which has cascading considerations .. see below for more). Tender Decision: tender him.
Ok, so that’s the end of the tender locks. The rest of these guys each have a mostly legitimate reason not to tender. We’ll go one by one by rough projection of 2022 salary and make some guesses.
- Joe Ross; Arb3: $2.5-$3M projected. He made $1.5M this year. He sat out 2020, pitched in the rotation for most of 2021 to a 98 ERA+ … then tore his UCL in Mid August. Awesome. So we have a 5th starter who has already had Tommy John surgery sitting on a known second UCL tear, but which apparently doesn’t require surgery. Tender Decision: Do you tender the guy a contract? I wouldn’t: i’d non-tender him and immediately offer him a non-40 man minor/major split deal with an opt-out/call up guarantee for when he projects to be healthy. And if i’m Ross i’d take it, because nobody else would offer him anything different.
- Erick Fedde, Arb1: $1.9-$2M. Fedde has now pitched in 75 games across 5 seasons for this team. They tried him as a reliever in 2019 and he was awful (more walks than Ks). They’ve used him as a starter and his career starting ERA is 5.32. I think he’s 7th or 8th on our starter depth chart right now, and that’s before looking at AAA and seeing the guys who are there who i’d rather see on the mound. He has no options and has not proven he’s worth carrying even if he doesn’t make the rotation in 2022. Tender Decision: Non-tender him
- Wander Suero: Arb 1, projected $900k-$1M salary. Suero basically doubled his ERA and FIP in 2021 versus 2020, tough to do. He went from being a serviceable middle reliever to a guy getting demoted to AAA. It was a weird season; he had three very consistent performances in the three years prior. Was he hurt? Was it something mechanical? Either way, his track record buys him a roster spot for 2022, especially since he’ll be relatively cheap. Tender Decision: tender a contract and hope for a return to previous levels of performance.
Then, the Nats have four players who all are right around the typical Super-2 cutoff date. All four of these players have 2 years and between 125 – 135 days of service. If the Super-2 cutoff comes in at 2years 136 days … all four of these guys will remain under team control and get paid the MLB min. For the purposes of this discussion though, lets assume they all get super-2 status. Post publishing update: just i posted this, MLB announced the Super2 cutoff at the very low 2years, 116 days (the 2nd lowest cutoff in the last decade), so all four players below are eligible.
- Austin Voth: Arb1. Proj Salary: $1M. Unlike his fellow 5th starter competitor for the past few years, Voth was actually put into the bullpen this season … and he wasn’t good. 5.34 ERA, 4.90 FIP, 1.48 whip. Way too many walks, way too many homers. He’s got just as poor a career stat line as Fedde, but it likely doesn’t cost half as much to retain him since the league thinks he’s a reliever now++. But, it isn’t so much about the salary as it is the roster space at this point. Voth has no options remaining either, and has not made enough of a case to guarantee a bullpen spot in 2022. Tender Decision: non-tender him.
- Andrew Stevenson: Arb1, projected salary $900k. His 2020 glittering stat line is gone; he slashed .229/.294/.339 in 109 part time games this year. He’s now 5th on the OF depth chart and has no options. It seems like his time as a major leaguer might be done. Tender Decision: non-tender.
- Ryne Harper, Arb1. Projected salary: $800K. After awful stats in 2020 post acquisition (we got him from Minnesota for Hunter McMahon in a rare prospect-for-prospect trade), he did pitch reasonably well in 2021. His peripherals were not great, but he kept guys off base and was good. He also has options remaining, meaning he can run between AAA and the majors all they want. I see no reason to cut him loose, especially given his low projected salary, Tender Decision: tender him.
- Tanner Rainey Arb1. Projected salary: $800K. What in the heck happened to Rainey in 2021? How do you go from a 170 ERA+ season to a 55 ERA+ season? Something seems amiss. Unfortunately, he’s out of options, meaning he’s got next year’s spring training to figure it out or get DFA’d. He’s got too good of a track record and too big of an arm not to gamble on especially since his projected salary is peanuts. Tender Decision: tender him.
My conclusion: Non-tender Ross, Fedde, Voth, and Stevenson, clearing up 4 roster spots. Offer all four minor/major combo deals to try to resurrect their careers. I doubt any would take it save Ross.
Sources used:
- Cots Nats page: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/
- Cots Nats 2022 salary page: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Au_xTIni1eJbDGzravS1482wBbzN9DBQaOY1wwo2Mr0/edit#gid=1520401900
- Roster Resource nats page: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/nationals
- Nats Big Board; https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/186nm-v5F-zTCoR2Be7TFYM3e2cZ-gYi2WVqJLEkHdmc/
- Baseball-Reference.com of course.