With the final two qualifying-offer attached FAs signing yesterday (Bregman and Pivetta), we’re doing a double duty post today; recapping the Qualifying Offer (QO hereafter) crop for this offseason, then publishing the now-finalized draft order for 2025.
First; QOs. We’ve come a long way since the first QO season, and we’ve come a long ways since the awful 2015 season when so many veteran FAs (our own Ian Desmond headlining) got royally screwed by the QO. So, how did the crop fare this year?
Here’s a link to my full QO worksheet with a lot more detail than the below table. It is in chronological order, so scroll to the bottom. But, here’s a summary table:
| Year | Player | Old Team | New Team | Draft Pick Forfeited | Signing Date | New Contract | AAV change | Q.O. Screw the player? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Juan Soto | New York Yankees | New York Mets | 2-70,4S-143 | 12/9/2024 | 15yr/765M | 29.95 | No |
| 2024 | Corbin Burnes | Baltimore | Arizona | 2-59 | 12/30/2024 | 6yr/$210M | 13.95 | No |
| 2024 | Alex Bregman | Houston | Boston | 2-53 | 2/12/2025 | 3yr/$120M | 18.95 | Not really |
| 2024 | Max Fried | Atlanta | New York Yankees | 2-71, 4S-144 | 12/10/2024 | 8yr/$218M | 6.2 | No |
| 2024 | Willy Adames | Milwaukee | San Francisco | 2-54,5-155 | 12/9/2024 | 7yr/$182M | 4.95 | No |
| 2024 | Pete Alonso | New York Mets | New York Mets | none | 2/5/2025 | 2yr/$54M | 5.95 | Sort of |
| 2024 | Anthony Santander | Baltimore | Toronto | 2-49 | 1/20/2025 | 5yr/$92.5M | -2.55 | Not really |
| 2024 | Teoscar Hernandez | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | none | 12/30/2024 | 3yr/$66M | 0.95 | No |
| 2024 | Sean Manaea | New York Mets | New York Mets | none | 12/23/2024 | 3yr/$75M | 3.95 | No |
| 2024 | Christian Walker | Arizona | Houston | 2-63, 4S-142 | 12/20/2024 | 3yr/$60M | -1.05 | Not really |
| 2024 | Nick Martinez | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | none | 11/17/2024 | 1yr/21.05M | 7.05 | No |
| 2024 | Nick Pivetta | Boston | San Diego | 2-63 | 2/12/2025 | 4yr/$55M | -7.3 | Yes |
| 2024 | Luis Severino | New York Mets | Oakland | 2-48 | 12/6/2024 | 3yr/$67M | 1.25 | No |
So, what’s the breakdown of the 13 QO-attached Free Agents this year?
- 4 Resigned with their old team, negating the QO and draft pick loss
- 9 signed with new teams, thus triggering draft pick compensation and IFA money loss
- 5 of the 13 in my opinion had some level of “impact” to their Free Agency by virtue of the QO attachment, even if its arguable:
- Nick Pivetta was probably the most impacted; he took $7.3M less in AAV than if he’d just signed the one year deal.
- One QO attached signing was ludicrous: Oakland/Sacramento signed a reliever Luis Severino to a 3yr/$67M basically to get the union off their backs for hoarding money. Honestly; someone needs to divest this team from its ownership.
- The Rich get richer: four of the signing teams were so far over payroll that they gave up two draft picks (Mets, Yankees, SF, Houston)
- 13 total draft picks were surrendered, which we’ll talk about in a bit in how it impacts a team like the Nationals.
- Boras represented 6 of the 13 players: 2 of the re-signed, 2 got the expected massive deals (Soto and Burns), but if i’m his remaining two clients (Alonso and Bregman) I’d be pretty underwhelmed by what happened this off-season. Alonso got just a 2year deal, Bregman a 3-year deal (albeit with opt outs each year). At least both can go back to FA soon w/ zero attachment.
- CAA Sports represented 4 of the 13: Fried and Adams did well, Walker got less in AAV than the QO but signed early so you can’t say the market played him. But they also represent Pivetta, who signed a deal worth $13.75/year AAV when he could have gotten a $21M QO for 2025. A mis-read by the player and the agent.
I continue to not be a fan of the QO system. I believe it artificially suppresses salaries for veteran FAs. I also believe FAs generally speaking are morons and continually misread their markets. Year after year we see players get screwed by this system.
So, now that all the QO assigned players are signed, there’s no more draft pick gains and losses, and we now have a basically finalized 2025 draft order. I believe I have this correct and updated for all the moves, but here’s my working XLS of all the drops and adds for the first five rounds due to draft pick comp, comp picks, etc.
As it stands now, here’s how the Nats will be picking:
- 1st round: #1 overall
- 2nd round: #49 overall
- 3rd round: #80 overall: this moved up 9 spots thanks to lost picks
- 4th round: #111 overall:
- 5th round: #142 overall
- 6th round: #171 overall
- +30 every round subsequent
So, we’ll get three picks in the top 80 in 2025, which should add nicely to our existing slate of prospects.