The Nationals have a hole to fill in the backend of the bullpen after non-tendering Kyle Finnegan
After non-tendering Kyle Finnegan, the Nationals will head into 2025 with a new closer. The question is who will it be. With the reliever market yet to develop, there are plenty of external options available. However, there are a couple intriguing candidates already on the roster that will be explored.
Free agency options
With most of the best free agent closers still on the market, the Nationals have a chance to pounce if they want to bring in a veteran with closing experience. Tanner Scott is the top reliever on the market, but it is difficult to imagine the Nationals spending top of the market money to a closer given their other more pressing needs. However, there are also a number of quality high leverage arms that will not break the bank.
My favorite reliever on the market is Jose Leclerc formerly of the Texas Rangers. Leclerc is particularly interesting due to his relative youth, closing experience, and bounce back potential. At 31 years old, Leclerc is on the younger side for a free agent reliever. This makes him a multi-year solution rather than a one year stop gap. Although he has not been a primary closer in the regular season for a number of years, he was the closer during the Rangers world series run, delivering big outs when his team needed him most.
He also has strikeout stuff, fanning 31.2% of batters in his career and 30.9% last season. While he walked over 11% of batters last season, his questionable control has not prevented him from being an effective reliever. After posting a 4.32 ERA last season, he could be had at a discounted price. Leclerc’s advanced numbers suggest a bounce back, with the right hander posting a 3.48 FIP and 3.57 xERA. This should be an opportunity that Mike Rizzo should be all over.
Internal solutions
If the Nationals decide not to bring in a closer, they have a couple intriguing options inside the organization. The two most interesting options to me are a pair of southpaws, Jose Ferrer and Robert Garcia.
Garcia was an analytical darling last season, with all the advanced numbers pointing to him as an elite reliever. He posted a 2.38 FIP, a 2.52 xERA, and a 2.77 xFIP. Garcia also struck out an elite 11.31 batters per nine innings, while walking only 2.41 per nine. That looks like a future closer, but his actual run prevention did not match these advanced metrics. He posted a 4.22 ERA, and was highly inconsistent. The thing that scares me most about Garcia is his struggles in high leverage situations. Garcia dominated in low leverage situations, while he crumbled in the high leverage spots. While those stats can be volatile, Garcia looked noticeably worse whenever manager Davey Martinez threw him in a big spot last year.
My favorite internal option is the 24 year old Jose Ferrer. He has big velocity, and looked dominant at times in the second half, after missing the first half with injury. Despite averaging 98 MPH on his fastball, Ferrer is not a strikeout guy, fanning 19.4% of hitters. However, he is elite at generating groundballs. His 57.3 GB% is an among the best in baseball, ranking 27th out of 517 pitchers with at least 100 batters faced. This limits the amount of damage a hitter can do, and prevents extra base hits. At his best, Ferrer can look like Zack Britton, the former Orioles closer, who also relied on a power sinker. With his control taking a major leap, only walking 4.7% of hitters, Ferrer looks like a serious high leverage arm.
While non-tendering a fan favorite like Finnegan was not a popular move, it gives the Nationals flexibility and the chance to chase higher upside arms. Finnegan was a steady presence in the backend of the bullpen, but he is someone you can upgrade. The Nationals can do just that this offseason.