The results are in and jeffgoynevt is this season’s big winner
The 2024 Orioles season did not end the way any of us wanted. But six months ago we were younger and more optimistic. That’s when 289 of you participated in Camden Chat’s annual pre-season contest, 31 questions to predict outcomes about your favorite baseball team.
The final question of the contest was answered on October 2nd when the Orioles were swept out of the playoffs for the second straight year. Yes, one of the questions was “Will the Orioles win a postseason series?” Before the season began, 92.7% of you answered yes. Ah, those were the days. We were so young and innocent.
When the dust had settled, one person answered 21 questions correctly, the most of any of the 289 people who participated. Congratulations to jeffgoynevt! You won the pre-season contest! Two people tied for second with 20 correct, which was also very impressive. Well done Disco Stupid and Manonbike.
To see the full results of the contest, check out the results spreadsheet and see where you rank. My results weren’t so great. I got 13 correct, tied for 160th. I’m in good company though, as site runner and Orioles expert Mark Brown (listed on the results sheet as Eat More Esskay) also scored 13. And we wrote the thing!
Read on to read the full results of the contest. And thanks for playing! I’ll see you in the spring for the next version.
Which will be higher?
- Corbin Burnes bWAR or Joey Ortiz + DL Hall bWAR? Answer: Burnes – 3.4. Joey Ortiz kept it close for much of the season, but a late-season swoon by Ortiz and surge from Burnes put it out of reach. Ortiz finished the year at 2.6 while DL Hall was basically a nonentity with -0.1 in 43 IP. Wouldn’t it be cool if Burnes returned? I won’t hold my breath. (79.6% answered correctly)
- Games started in the outfield: Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser? Answer: Cowser – 133. After watching Cowser make a run toward Rookie of the Year, it’s wild that this was ever considered a viable question. But Cowser finished last year in the minors while Kjerstad was named to the playoff roster, so it felt worth asking. Kjerstad made 16 OF starts. (88.6% answered correctly)
- Saves by Craig Kimbrel or stolen bases by Jorge Mateo? Answer: Kimbrel – 23. This one had a sad ending for both players. Both players had a good first half. Kimbrel picked up 23 saves with a 2.80 ERA while Jorge Mateo stole 13 bases with an OPS+ of 93. Then Mateo suffered a season-ending injury and Kimbrel first lost his closer job and then his roster spot. (66.8% answered correctly)
- Adley Rutschman OPS*1000 or Orioles runs scored? Answer: Runs scored – 786. Another sad one. At the All-Star break, Rutschman had an OPS of .780 We all know what happened next. (59.2% answered correctly)
- Dean Kremer’s ERA+ or Jordan Westburg’s OPS+? Answer: Westburg – 129. Kremer had his moments this year but his ERA+ of 92 was no match for Westburg’s excellent season. (76.8% answered correctly)
- Orioles batters with 20+ HR or pitchers with ERA under 3.50 (min. 40 IP)? Answer: Pitchers (5) My money was on hitters for this one, but only three topped 20 this year. If Rutschman hadn’t fallen apart and Westburg hadn’t gotten hurt it could have been a tie. The five pitchers were: Zach Eflin, Corbin Burnes, Jacob Webb, Yennier Cano, and Keegan Akin. (24.9% answered correctly)
- Home runs hit by Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Santander? Answer: Santander (44). Both players tied with 28 homers in 2023 and both blew that number out of the water. But Gunnar’s 37 paled to the monster free-agent year from Santander. (16.3% answered correctly)
- Grayson Rodriguez strikeouts or games played by Ryan O’Hearn + Ramón Urías? Answer: O’Hearn + Urías (242). This one was not even close. Rodriguez struck out 130 in 116.2 innings. O’Hearn topped that on his own. (31.8% answered correctly)
- Tyler Wells or Cole Irvin GS? Answer: Irvin – 16. Well had just three starts before his season-ending Tommy John surgery. (30.1% answered correctly)
- Corbin Burnes K% or Adley Rutschman CS%? Answer: Burnes 23.1%. It was a close one! Rutschman’s 22% CS rate was identical to 2023 while Burnes dropped from 25.5%. (74.7% answered correctly)
Over/Under
- Orioles wins: 92.5. Answer: Under. This one hurts. 91 wins is very respectable! It just looked for a while like it would be a lot more. (11.8% answered correctly)
- Orioles All-Stars: 2.5. Answer: Over. They doubled! Corbin Burnes, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and and Jordan Westburg were all named to the team. (84.4% answered correctly)
- Longest win streak: 6.5. Answer: Under. When the Orioles won six in a row in early June, seven seemed inevitable at some point in the season. It was not. (10.7% answered correctly)
- Camden Yards season attendance: 2.2 million. Answer: Over. It took them to the last homestand of the season, but they did it. It was a nice bump over the previous year, even if some members of the press acted like it wasn’t. (86.5% answered correctly)
- John Means IP: 99.5. Answer: Way under. I don’t want to talk about it. (48.4% answered correctly)
Who will be the first…
- Oriole to hit a home run? Anthony Santander. Because of course it was. (15.9% answered correctly)
- Oriole to steal a base? Jorge Mateo. Because of course it was. (24.6% answered correctly)
- Team to sweep the Orioles? St. Louis Cardinals. It was bound to happen. Cardinals was a weird way to break the streak, though. (0.7% answered correctly)
- Team the Orioles sweep? Boston Red Sox. (25.6% answered correctly)
- Orioles starter to get a win? Corbin Burnes. (91.3% answered correctly)
Yes/No
- Will Kyle Bradish start an MLB game before Memorial Day? Yes. This was good news when it happened. The good feelings didn’t last long. (45% answered correctly)
- Will Jackson Holliday make the Opening Day roster? No. This felt like a mistake when it happened. Turns out it wasn’t. (39.4% answered correctly)
- Will the Orioles sign a player to a contract extension before the end of the season? No. Boooooo (43.3% answered correctly)
- Will an Oriole have a 20/20 season (HR & stolen bases)? Yes. Gunnar Henderson stole 21 and hit 37. (77.2% answered correctly)
- Will the Orioles trade for a starting pitcher before the trade deadline? Yes. They traded for a couple. One turned out well. (52.2% answered correctly)
- Will the Orioles win a postseason series? No. That’s all I’m gonna say about that. (7.3% answered correctly)
Multiple Choice
- Which of these pitchers will have the most innings pitched with the Orioles? Seth Johnson, Chayce McDermott, Cade Povich. Answer: Povich. McDermott and Povich both made their major league debuts this year, but McDermott made just one start. Povich pitched 79.2 innings in 16 starts. Seth Johnson was traded to the Phillies where he also made his ML debut. (30.8% answered correctly)
- Which of these players will hit the most home runs at Camden Yards? Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle. Answer: Mullins. Mullins smacked 12 homers at Camden, much more than Hays (0) or Mountcastle (8). (31.8% answered correctly)
- Which of these players will have the second-most saves for the Orioles? Yennier Cano, Danny Coulombe, Cionel Pérez, Dillon Tate, Someone else. Answer: Seranthony Domínguez. THAT was unexpected. (13.1% correctly answered Someone else)
- Which of these players will have the highest minor league OPS? (minimum 200 PA). Samuel Basallo, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo. Answer: Kjerstad. Kjerstad (.986) edged out Mayo (.964). Basallo was a distant third and Cowser didn’t log a single minor-league AB. (6.2% answered correctly)
- Which of the following pitchers will have the most wins? Bradish, Irvin, Kremer, Means, Rodriguez, Wells. Answer: Grayson Rodriguez. Grayson was the obvious pick and he didn’t let us down in that department. (79.9% answered correctly)
That’s it! Thanks to everyone who played or followed along through the year. Writing this contest is one of my favorite parts of the season every year. Hope you enjoyed it too.