The Orioles are looking for a third star to boost their offense and the 2024 All-Star is looking to bounce back from injury, setting the scene for a potential breakout season.
When the 2025 Orioles take the field six weeks from now in Toronto, it will represent the beginning of a new era for this Baltimore lineup. Anthony Santander, the man who occupied the three hole 255 times for the Os over the previous three years, will be in the other dugout. A team whose lineup has undergone the ultimate facelift under Mike Elias & Co. will once again be asked to reinvent itself.
While the front office brought in Tyler O’Neill to fill Santander’s ABs, projections suggest the Orioles will first look to replace his impact from within. After watching Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson take big leaps in their second full season with the Birds, that opportunity now falls to Jordan Westburg in 2025.
At least part of the Orioles’ offensive struggles down the stretch in 2024 can be tied to Westburg’s injury at the end of July. Westburg took a 95 mph fastball off his right hand July 31 and suffered a hand fracture that would keep him out of action until September 22.
Westburg’s exit from the lineup coincided with a significant downturn in the Orioles offensive production. Across June and July—with Westburg in the lineup and playing his best baseball—the Orioles were hitting .266, slugging .475 and scoring 5.1 runs/game. Once the former Mississippi State Bulldog landed on the injured list, the O’s offense entered a free fall that saw them hit .238, slug .395 and scoring only 4.4 runs/game.
While attributing the Orioles’ offensive woes solely to Westburg’s absence would be ignoring other issues, the 2024 All-Star offers a skillset that is not easily replaced. Henderson has ascended into his current status as one of the AL’s best hitters thanks to elite bat speed and exit velocity—tools that cover up for mediocre launch angles and propensity for strikeouts. Rutschman developed into one of the best catchers in baseball with the opposite skill set; with excellent plate discipline and the ability to square up the ball helping him overcome subpar exit velocity and bat speed.
Westburg combines Adley’s bat-to-ball skills with Gunnar’s ability to drive the ball with authority to achieve a profile not found anywhere else on the Orioles roster. Despite below average bat speed, Westburg finished second on the Orioles (behind Gunnar) and led the Orioles in barrels per plate appearance.
There’s a lot of swing and miss in Westburg’s game—only Colton Cowser whiffed more often in 2024. And unlike Rutschman and Henderson, Westburg refuses to collect walks, earning a free pass in less than 5% of his ABs. However, this aggressive approach fuels Westburg at the plate rather than holding him back. At the time of his injury, he was on pace to rack up 156 hits, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 37 2Bs and 82 runs—all with a .269 average and .815 OPS. Those numbers would’ve put him first on the O’s in 2Bs, second in hits, average and OPS, and third in runs, home runs and RBIs.
Westburg has always come about his success in a quiet, somewhat unexpected manner. As a prospect he consistently ranked behind Henderson and Jackson Holliday, and the presence of Coby Mayo, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby further down the rankings had this writer questioning if he’d be able to hold down a role in the Orioles infield. As a prospect, scouts labeled him as a power over average hitter with plus athleticism and defense.
Instead, as a major leaguer, he’s shown the ability to put up average and power numbers similar to new Red Sox infielder Alex Bregman while posting near elite sprint speed numbers and playing above average defense. In the same way that Bregman combined with stars like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez to bring multiple championships to Houston, Westburg is now tasked with filling that third star role in Baltimore.
There are still areas Westburg will look to improve as he tries to fill the role vacated by Santander. At times, Brandon Hyde has used Westburg as a leadoff man against lefties, but it’s not yet a role he’s well suited for. Last season, he hit .230 with a .744 OPS against lefties (compared to .275/.808 against right handers).
A big part of his struggles against southpaws come down to difficulties hitting breaking balls and an approach that rarely sees him go the other way. Last year, Westburg hit .176 on lefty sliders or curveballs with no extra base hits. Part of that can be attributed to Westburg hitting pitches to the opposite field only 21% of the time—by far the lowest number of any regular starter last year. Southpaws tend to try to throw their breaking balls on the outer third to right handers, forcing the right hander to try and drive the ball to the other field.
Westburg may benefit, though, from getting to hit higher in the lineup this year. In 2024, 82% of his ABs came from the five hole or lower, meaning he rarely got the type of protection that comes from hitting in front of a Gunnar Henderson or Anthony Santander. With Tony Taters in Toronto—and O’Neill potentially more of a platoon player—Westburg should get the opportunity to get more ABs in the top half of the lineup.
All the tools are there for Westburg, who turns 26 today, to take that big leap and give the Orioles the offensive edge this team needs to win another AL East pennant. Last year, Westburg made the All-Star team as an injury replacement. If he can take advantage of the big opportunity in front of him, look for him to push for a starting spot at the 2025 Midsummer Classic and propel the Orioles to their first playoff win in over a decade.