There have been plenty of moves throughout the division this winter, but have things really changed all that much?
Things have been busy in the AL East this winter. And after a whirlwind few months, the offseason is finally winding to a close. An impactful move or two could still come, but most of the major deals are done. So it felt like the right time to step back and take stock of things. Have the dynamics of the division shifted in any meaningful way this offseason, and where do the Orioles fall in all of it?
Very quickly, let’s recap what the O’s have done so far.
The rotation has lost an ace in Corbin Burnes, but they have bulked up their depth. Tomoyuki Sogano and Charlie Morton are expected to provide solid contributions from the back of the staff, hopefully buying time for Kyle Bradish (Tommy John surgery) to get healthy.
In the bullpen, the Mountain is back. Félix Bautista may not be ready to close on Opening Day, but in general it should be a healthy season for one of the league’s top relievers. Joining him late in games is the recently-signed veteran Andrew Kittredge. Outgoing names include Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb.
There were fewer changes among the position players. Tyler O’Neill has come on board, replacing the departing Anthony Santander. In theory, the Orioles should not lose much production from that swap, especially if Heston Kjerstad can step up and finally find his big league footing. Gary Sánchez is the new backup catcher, stepping in for James McCann.
Overall, the Orioles feel about the same as they did at the end of 2024. The loss of Burnes could be huge. He is a bonafide ace that the team has not adequately replaced. But there are still several months until the trade deadline, and how Bradish heals up is a huge variable in that conversation. On offense, the team should be about the same, maybe even better if the younger players continue to develop.
The defending champs
If the O’s are going to take back the division, their stiffest competition would appear to be the defending American League champion New York Yankees.
The 2024 Yankees went 94-68 behind MVP winner Aaron Judge and human OBP machine Juan Soto. Of course, Soto has departed, but the prevailing thought is that the Yankees have gotten deeper with his departure.
Max Fried was signed to a big deal, making for a powerful trio (Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil) atop the New York rotation. To make room for Fried, Nestor Cortes was sent to Milwaukee, and it still seems possible that Marcus Stroman could be on the move as well.
Out in the bullpen, Devin Williams was brought on in that Cortes deal. He will be the team’s new closer, replacing Clay Holmes in the ninth inning. The duo of Williams and Luke Weaver has the potential to be the best in baseball.
Paul Goldschmidt was signed to replace another aging first baseman in Anthony Rizzo. First base was a problem for the Yankees in ‘24. This signing should at least solidify things there. Cody Bellinger is expected to be the everyday centerfielder, upgrading the defense at two positions with one move. Bellinger is a better glove than Judge in center, and Judge is better with the leather in right than Soto was.
This version of the Yankees feels like it can beat teams in more ways than the ‘24 version. The offense is deeper, albeit with a lower ceiling, and the defense appears less likely to implode. The pitching is probably better as well, but it was quite good last season and there always the possibility that Cole starts to regress as he ages.
The up-and-comers
It looks like the Red Sox are waking up from their three-year slumber. They were a competitive .500 team in 2024, and went into the offseason with a clear goal in mind: upgrade the pitching staff. They can certainly put a check next to that “to do” item, but their method for doing so was a risky one.
Garrett Crochet is the new crown jewel of their rotation. Acquired in a trade with the White Sox, the lefty was spectacular for half of the ‘24 season on a dreadful team. But his lack of track record is concerning. Last season was the first time he started as a professional, and it represented a huge jump in innings. The Red Sox are unlikely to lean on him for 200+ innings in 2025.
Walker Buehler is the other new name in the rotation. The 30-year-old knows how to win, but he has had injury concerns for two straight seasons. The veteran has all of the motivation to pitch up to his ability and use this one-year deal as a springboard towards the long-term contract he had once seemed destined for. But staying healthy is not usually in someone’s control.
The lineup will largely be the same as it was a season ago, minus O’Neill. That’s not a bad strategy in general. The Red Sox scored the ninth-most runs in baseball last year. You figure that with a better pitching staff they can improve their run differential and therefore their record. But a lot of that could depend on Jarren Duran repeating his tremendous season at the top of the order.
The bridesmaids
The Blue Jays really want someone to take their money. Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Roki Sasaki all turned them down after lengthy pursuits in the last year or so. Finally, Santander took them up on an offer just a few days ago. While we love Tony Taters around here, he is not quite at the Ohtani level, and it must feel like a cruel joke to Jays fans that he is the player they ended up with after all of these rumors.
Outside of Santander, Toronto focused on fortifying their bullpen. That group was an issue for them in ‘24, so it’s a logical choice. Jeff Hoffman, a player that failed physicals with both the Braves and Orioles this winter, is expected to close games for them. If he’s healthy, that should be great for them. If he’s not, well, it would feel fitting for the fortunes of this franchise recently.
Andrés Gimenez is their new second baseman, coming over from Cleveland in a trade. He is a brilliant defender, but can’t do much at the plate. That should be helpful for a pitching staff that has a ton of familiar names that struggled a season ago.
Overall, this feels like a team that is hoping to get fortunate outcomes early in the season to encourage the front office to buy at the deadline in hopes of a playoff push. More realistically, this feels like a squad that could flameout by June and be one of the league’s biggest sellers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette could both be on the move, which would likely lead to a total rebuild north of the border.
The Rays being the Rays
Tampa is in for a weird season. Their stadium was destroyed by hurricanes in the offseason, and they are unlikely to play games there anytime soon. Instead, they will use the Yankees spring training facility as their home field.
As for the roster, it looks a lot like it did in 2024. The only major league contract that the Rays have handed out this winter is to catcher Danny Jansen. He’s a fine player, but certainly not a game-changer.
For the Rays to have a better season in 2025, they will need to be healthier and a little lucky. Shane McClanahan missed all of ‘24 with Tommy John surgery. He is a Cy Young candidate when healthy. Brandon Lowe missed a good chuck of time last year as well. His power potential is crucial to their offense putting up a fight.
The only other avenue for success here is for the Rays to do Rays things. That is, win games with an anonymous roster and give the big-spending clubs a fit every time they play. Make no mistake, that option is always available for the Rays.
So, what happens?
The Blue Jays and Rays do feel like a notch (or three) below the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles. It’s baseball. Anything can happen. But on paper, that is how things feel.
Within that upper trio, the Yankees have been the most aggressive. They have made big changes to their lineup, rotation, and bullpen. The Orioles and Red Sox cannot make that same claim. Given that the Yankees are the defending champs anyway, they have to have the inside track.
But it is not as simply as saying that Boston and Baltimore are fighting for second place. Both of them have the upside to win the division, and it feels like they both have solid enough floors to not fall out of contention entirely.
So, what changed this offseason? Honestly, not too much. The good teams stayed good, and the also-rans didn’t do enough to catch up. At least, not yet.