On whether his early-season struggles are age-, health-, or something-else-related.
It’s the rotation that time forgot. The Orioles’ starting pitching collective is the second-oldest in the league, and few are excited about it. Especially as the unit has an AL-worst 5.29 ERA in 17 games. (Only the Rockies are worse.) (The Rockies!)
Is it too soon to start panicking? The biggest problem, so far, is injuries. The second biggest problem is Charlie Morton.
Back in January, the Orioles announced they were signing the 41-year-old to a one-year, $15-million deal. It definitely didn’t do anything to make people rethink the view that the Orioles were having a “tepid offseason,” not with ’24 ace Corbin Burnes packing up his stuff and heading to Arizona, or the Yankees making a splashy signing for lefty Max Fried, or the Red Sox adding the valuable Garrett Crochet.
To be fair, there were reasons that Morton seemed worth taking a flyer on. Despite his age, over his last two seasons, he’d made 30-plus starts, putting up a 3.92 ERA and a .248 batting average against. Since 2017, he ranks fourth in MLB in strikeouts (1,417), eighth in innings (1,232.2), and 21st in ERA (3.64). All this approximately twelve years removed from Tommy John and eight years removed from hamstring surgery.
But perhaps Father Time has caught up to Morton at last. In four starts as an Oriole he’s been dreadful, 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA. He’s allowing a 1.909 WHIP, 11.8 WHIP, and a career-high 5.4 walks per game. So far, statistically, this is one of the worst seasons of his 18-year career.
There are a few theories as to what’s going on. Morton himself has said his command’s been off. MASN’s Brendan Mortensen homed in on Morton’s curveball, normally a plus pitch, and a groundball rate that is not what he wants it to be.
The groundball rates are surprising. Morton has always been a groundball pitcher, with a career rate of 50 percent. This season, that got all the way down to 24 percent at one point, bumping up Morton’s fly ball percentage and line drive percentage to some of the highest of his career. Over his last two starts, however, his groundball rate is improving, bringing it up to 32.2 percent now. It’s not what he wants, yet, but it’s an improvement.
As for Morton’s curveball, perhaps his primary weapon, from 2021 to 2024, the pitch had a run value in the top 15 in the game, twice being the very best in the game, according to Statcast. But in 2025, batters are demolishing the pitch, with a .455 batting average and .818 slugging percentage, and a 75% barrel rate. In run value, the curveball was a +21 as recently as 2023; this year it’s down to -6.
In fairness, the culprit doesn’t seem to be shape or stuff. The spin rate, vertical break and horizontal break on the Morton hook are consistent with years past. MASN’s conclusion:
When these sorts of metrics are consistent with past years but the results are drastically different, we’re left with an easier takeaway to swallow: perhaps there’s nothing wrong with the pitch itself, and Morton has just run into some bad luck on the offering in a small sample size.
This could be true, particularly as his fastball has its best run value since 2021 and his changeup is a positive offering, too. Neither of those pitches has seen a decrease in spin or velocity. Luck seems able to explain a Morton’ xERA and xFIP of 5.33 and 4.93 respectively, each over three runs less than his ERA.
My guess is that command is the driver, as Morton said. His strike percentage is down across all pitches, but especially the curveball. For instance, he threw it for 43% strikes in 2022 but that total is 25% right now. He’s getting hammered up in the zone, particularly against right-handed hitters, who are slugging a ridiculous 1.000 against the pitch.
It was telling when, on Tuesday, GM Mike Elias made an appearance before the media. Elias insisted that he “still see(s) a playoff team” when looking at this bunch, and told fans he is actively working the phones to make trades. It was a scheduled appearance, I assume, but given the timing, in light of the Orioles’ sorry play, and especially sorry pitching, it still felt like damage control, especially regarding a rotation he could and probably should have done more to be build.
As for Morton, the signing was not the big swing the Orioles wanted, but he could still turn out to be a valuable member of the rotation. The good news is, there is nothing in the pitch data to suggest he has topped out at this ceiling and succumbed to Father Time. That, a return to form for Dean Kremer, and a return from injury for Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells could indicate a return to decent pitching for the Orioles later this season.