Félix Bautista working to 100% by Opening Day, Bradish “on track”

The return of the two players from Tommy John surgery will be important for the 2025 season.

The Mountain is officially back on the mound for the Orioles. Félix Bautista, who is nearing the end of his rehab progression from his late 2023 Tommy John surgery, threw a bullpen session at camp on Friday, throwing to Adley Rutschman as he got his work in.

Bautista told reporters on Friday morning before his throwing session that he is currently throwing around 85% strength and that he expects to be up to 100% by Opening Day. That tracks with the relative optimism that GM Mike Elias expressed in his session with media on Thursday, in which Elias said there’s a “very good chance” of Bautista being on the Opening Day roster.

The Mountain’s bullpen session in action:

For me, it’s encouraging enough that Bautista is able to get in his pitches in the early days of camp. That has to be tempered with the knowledge that Elias said Bautista won’t appear in actual organized Grapefruit League games until late in the schedule. But as far as his chances of appearing on the Opening Day roster, it’s better that he’s at least doing bullpen sessions now than if we were hearing about caution by the Orioles keeping him from even throwing.

The choices that the Orioles made with offseason moves did not suggest much in the way of concern about Bautista being ready to go from the start of the season. Any spring setback for him is not something for which the team would have an immediate answer. It’s good that the initial news is positive. We can hope it remains that way.

Friday also brought a small update from manager Brandon Hyde about another of the Orioles players who is on his way back from Tommy John: Kyle Bradish. Hyde told reporters that Bradish is “right on track” after his mid-June 2024 surgery. That is a phrase that can probably mean what you want it to mean. Hyde said of Bradish that he is “looking forward to seeing how he progresses through the summer” and he hopes Bradish will be back in the second half of the season.

There is not much else to do about Bradish except wait and hope there’s not any bad news as he goes through the rehab markers for months 8-12 out from the elbow ligament surgery. Unlike Bautista, whose surgery was many months earlier, there’s not going to be anything substantial happening with Bradish during this spring training.

If we hear directly of a setback over the next few months, that won’t be great. If the calendar turns to July and we haven’t heard of any plans for when Bradish will go out on a rehab assignment, that is going to be a bit of a damper on any hopes that he might pitch for the team this season. It is more common now for TJ rehabs to stretch out more towards the 18 month range, rather than it being as easy as one year after the surgery date, they’re out on a minor league rehab to get back into game shape.

Bradish being on a rehab assignment in July might influence the Orioles eventual trade deadline thinking. Getting him back in August probably allows them to feel less urgent in considering whether they need an external addition to the starting rotation. Should Bradish instead be looking at September or maybe not pitching at all in 2025, Elias would have to pursue a more aggressive path to improve at that point.