The second-year hurler took some steps forward in 2024, but he suffered through two IL stints, and was unable to get healthy in time for the playoffs.
Grayson Rodriguez entered 2024 with big expectations. The former top prospect was coming off of an encouraging rookie season in which he struggled out of the gate but turned into one of the league’s top pitchers down the stretch. The Orioles must have hoped that he would use that experience as a springboard into stardom in his sophomore campaign. But due to both injuries and some uneven play, that didn’t quite happen.
Before we dig into the details, let’s be clear. Rodriguez had a rather good 2024 campaign. He improved his full-season numbers in ERA (4.35 in ‘23, 3.86 in ‘24), FIP (3.93 to 3.66), K/9 (9.52 to 10.03), and BB/9 (3.10 to 2.78) among other categories. For much of the season, he was leading the league in pitcher wins as well. These are all very good things!
Much of the disappointment comes in when you look at innings thrown. He went from 122 major league innings in 2023 (plus 41.1 in Triple-A) to just 116.2 total innings in 2024. That was the result of two IL stints, both related to his right shoulder. The first came in late April when he missed three weeks with “right shoulder inflammation.” His season was cut short altogether in early August with “right lat/teres discomfort.” He attempted to get back in time for the playoffs, but it just didn’t happen. In the words of Brandon Hyde, the O’s “just ran out of time.”
This is something of a trend for Rodriguez at this point. He missed nearly three months in 2022 with a similar injury. At the time, his first promotion to the big leagues felt imminent, and it may have helped that Orioles team make a playoff push. Instead, he didn’t make it to Baltimore at all until the following year. The common trope that “the best ability is availability” can apply here. As talented as Rodriguez is, he needs to be healthy to contribute, particularly late in the season.
OK, now that the injury discussion is out of the way, let’s get back to the play on the field.
As mentioned earlier, Rodriguez did well in 2024. He was above league average in xERA (3.78), xBA (.236), and walk rate (7.3%). He was well above league average in terms of whiff rate (30%), strikeout rate (26.5%) and chase rate (30.6%).
Those numbers all came as a result of Rodriguez being his normal, nasty self. His 119 Stuff+ was ninth in all of MLB among pitchers that threw at least 100 innings, sandwiched between Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow. His 107 Pitching+ was tied for fifth in all of MLB. In short, Rodriguez puts some serious funk on his pitches, and it’s not just for show. He dices up hitters with it.
Interestingly, Rodriguez lost 1.3 mph on his four-seamer between 2023 and 2024. But the pitch itself got better. All of the opponent hitting numbers against his four-seam decreased while the strikeout rate on it remained essentially unchanged. That’s significant since nearly half of his pitches are the four-seamer. Ultimately, it still graded out as a below-average pitch (-1 run value) in terms of outcomes, but there is reason to believe it can get even better. His actually batting numbers against were all worse than his expected numbers. Some positive regression on the four-seam could get Rodriguez to another level.
In the breaking ball department, Rodriguez made some alterations. In 2023, he threw what Statcast described as a sweeper. In 2024, he threw a traditional slider. The two pitches are related, but the characteristics do look different and the results were drastic as well. Last year’s sweeper was great (+8 run value). This year’s slider struggled (-2 run value, .563 slugging percentage). It sounds like these are probably the same pitches in Rodriguez’s mind, with tweaked grips and arm angles, and it’s something he was fiddling with in the spring. This is yet another area where continued work could see Rodriguez unlock/rediscover something crucial.
However, the crowning jewel for Rodriguez was once again his stupendous changeup. That thing is a weapon. Rodriguez had 140 Stuff+ on his changeup alone, the absolute best of any changeup in baseball that belongs to a pitcher with over 100 innings thrown. Opponents hit only .161 and slugged .306 against the change in 2024. It’s no wonder that as the season went on, Rodriguez leaned on the pitch more. By the end of July, it was his second-most used pitch behind the four-seam, a deadly combination.
The evidence is pretty clear that Rodriguez remains an exceptional talent. Even while losing a tick on the fastball, it still has top-level velocity. The slider (or whatever you want to call it) has the markings of a good offering and room to improve. And don’t even get started on his changeup. Simply put, it is one of the best pitches in the sport. This guy knows how to throw a ball!
The big issue is staying on the field. The Orioles ran thin on starting pitching in 2024, and that could continue to be a problem in 2025 if Burnes signs elsewhere and while both Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells recover from elbow surgery. We will see what Mike Elias does in terms of acquisitions, but regardless there will be a ton of responsibility on Rodriguez’s (somewhat tender) shoulders. They need to be able to count on him.
The expectation is for Rodriguez to have a normal offseason. When the Orioles announced in late September that they were shutting the young righty down, Hyde said “We just felt like for his health, for his future, it’s the right thing to do…We’re going to get him ready for 2025.”
That was unfortunate for 2024 (although pitching was not the problem in the Wild Card round), but it is probably smart for 2025 and beyond.
As the roster stands, it would seem that either Rodriguez or Zach Eflin would be in line to start Opening Day for the Orioles. Maybe Elias will add a bigger name, or even re-sign Burnes, to usurp either of those two. But it is certain that Rodriguez will need to play a big role for the Orioles in 2025, and how he performs will impact the entire team’s ceiling.
Previous 2024 player reviews: Keegan Akin, Cionel Pérez, Cole Irvin, Ryan O’Hearn, Craig Kimbrel, Cade Povich, midseason position player acquisitions, Jackson Holliday, injured starting pitchers, James McCann, midseason pitching acquisitions, Jorge Mateo, Yennier Cano, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Jacob Webb
Tomorrow: Ramón Urías