Justin Armbruester failed to impress in a full season at Triple-A

Once thought of as a potential contributor at the MLB level, the 25-year-old former 12th round pick struggled for consistency in 26 starts with the Tides.

Developing pitching prospects hasn’t been a strong suit of the Mike Elias-led organization, so it’s doubly disappointing when a once-promising prospect seems to hit a wall in the minors. However, that’s seemingly what happened with Justin Armbruester in 2024, as the right-hander struggled to adjust in his first full season in Triple-A.

Armbruester came into the Orioles organization with little fanfare. A 12th-round pick out of New Mexico in 2021, the big right-hander seemed like an Elias special—a pitching prospect who may not seem to have the highest upside but had the attributes to potentially out-perform his initial expectations.

In his first full season of professional baseball, Armbruester made it to Double-A Bowie, posting a 3.69 ERA in 63.1 innings with the Baysox. His start to the 2023 season was even more encouraging, as he posted a 2.47 ERA in 12 more starts at Double-A. That stretch earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where Armbruester made 13 more starts to close out 2023.

Despite not putting up the most promising results in his first stretch in Triple-A, Armbruester started 2024 back with the Tides and in rotation with other top pitching prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott. While it was an outside chance, most thought it possible that Armbruester could pitch well enough in 2024 to earn his major league debut.

However, the 25-year-old’s season got off to a rocky start from his very first outing. In his 2024 debut, the Charlotte Knights lit him up for seven runs on seven hits as Armbruester only lasted 2.2 innings. That set the tone for an otherwise uninspiring first month of the season, as the Orioles prospect struggled to an 8.38 ERA over 19.1 innings while punching out 25. He would end April on a high note, tossing four shutout innings with six Ks against the Stripers.

Armbruester failed to carry that momentum into May, as he gave up six runs while only getting one out to kick off the second month of the season. That poor start to May once again set him up for a bad month, as he’d go on to post a 10.31 ERA over 18.1 innings, though he picked up 21 Ks and had three starts with at least as many strikeouts as IP.

While June was not necessarily a good month for Armbruester, it represented an improvement on his rough start to the season. He lowered his ERA to 7.07 for the month and ended it with his best start to date, tossing six shutout innings against Charlotte while only allowing four hits and punching out five.

That strong end to June propelled Armbruester to his best month of the season in July. In four starts sandwiched around the All-Star break, the big righty posted a 2.08 ERA over 17.1 innings while striking out 20 and holding opponents to a .206 average. July also saw Armbruester toss his best start of the season, shutting out the Memphis Redbirds over six innings while limiting them to three hits and punching out 10.

Such was the frustrating case of Armbruester in 2024, though. He’d have performances where he looked like a future major league starter, such as the excellent outing vs. Memphis and another quality start against Durham where he limited the Bulls to three runs while racking up seven Ks. He’d set a season high for strikeouts to end August, punching out 12 Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in his fourth quality start of the year.

However, mixed in with those excellent starts were too many objectively terrible outings. Armbruester had six starts in 2024 where he pitched less than three innings while allowing more than six runs. Three of those outings came in August, including Armbruester’s worst start of the year when he allowed nine runs in only 2.1 innings in a lopsided loss to Gwinnett. Despite throwing two quality starts in August, the right-hander still finished with a 12.46 ERA during the month while allowing a .320 average.

The Seatte-area native put up his second-best month of the season in September, lowering his ERA to 5.21 and his average against to .233. He also put up his worst strikeout numbers of the year in the final month, racking up on 16 Ks in 19 innings.

Much of Armbruester’s struggles through the year came down to a lack of control. Through his first two full seasons in the minors, the right-hander averaged 3.2 BB/9. That walk rate went through the roof this past season with Norfolk, jumping all the way up to 5.2 BB/9.

In Fangraphs’ midseason write up on Armbruester, “strike-throwing issues” and “struggling to locate” underline a control issue that defined not only his struggles this past season but his limits as a prospect. With a fastball that sits in the lower 90s but can touch 96, and two solid offerings with his cutter and slider, Armbruester has the arsenal to make it as a start in the big leagues. However, with his concerning lack of control, his best role in the majors could be a Mike Baumann-type reliever.

With Povich and McDermott squarely ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, Armbruester seems destined to start 2025 the same way he started 2024. He’ll get a spring training invite and short of dazzling in Sarasota, he’ll head back to Norfolk to begin next season. As someone who currently finds himself outside the Orioles’ Top 30 prospects, Armbruester may be on track to be a career Triple-A arm who never carves out a role in Baltimore.

Previous 2024 prospect reviews: Heston Kjerstad, Frederick Bencosme

Tomorrow: Leandro Arias