The former undrafted free agent is trying to break through and become the Orioles’ next homegrown starter.
While the Mike Elias regime has excelled at drafting and developing major league hitters, its success rate on pitchers is less encouraging. Brandon Young, the latest homegrown starter added to the 40-man roster, will look to reverse that narrative in 2025.
The 6’6” Young originally signed with the Orioles as an undrafted free agent out of Louisiana Lafayette in 2020. After posting a 1.09 ERA and 37 Ks in 24.2 IP during his pandemic-shortened senior season, it’s likely Young would have been drafted if not for MLB shortening the 2020 draft to only five rounds.
Racking up strikeouts has become Young’s calling card throughout his first four seasons with the Orioles organization. During his first year of pro ball in 2021, he punched out 114 batters across 84.1 innings split between Delmarva and Aberdeen. Injuries prevented him from building on that successful debut season, as he spent more time on the IL in 2022 than on the mound, registering only 13.1 IP due to an elbow injury. Surgery on that elbow saw Young stay on the IL from April 2022 to July 2023.
After pitching only 40 innings in 2023 as he rehabbed his elbow, Young bounced back in a big way in 2024. His fastball, which sat at around 91 mph immediately post injury, was back in the 92-95 range we saw from Young in his debut season. The strikeouts returned in full force as well, as he K’d 132 hitters in 111 innings, including 96 Ks across 89 innings in Norfolk.
The scouts and Young seem split on what is his best secondary pitch. According to MLB.com’s prospect profile, his curveball is his best overall pitching, grading out as a 55 on the 80-20 scale. His curve is the only pitch MLB.com’s prospect rankings deem an above average offering, saying this about his entire repertoire:
“His fastball in 2024 sat around 92-93 mph, topping out at 96, an effective pitch with some armside run. His best secondary offering is his above-average mid-70s curve, thrown with high spin and good depth, and he also has a firmer, low-80s slider. He kills spin with his changeup, a fading offspeed offering that is a good option for left-handed hitters.”
In last season’s mid-year Top 45 prospects list, Fangraphs also graded his curveball at a 55, but put his changeup at the same level, giving the cambio a 55 grade compared to MLB.com’s 45 grade. Young seems to favor his changeup over his curve, with Fangraphs noting that “[although] his curveball has nearly elite spin… Young actually deploys his mid-80s changeup a little more frequently than Uncle Charlie.”
The consensus among scouts is that Young’s ceiling is as a back end of the rotation starter thanks to good command and a four-pitch mix that lacks a truly elite offering. In years past, Young is the type of starter who probably could earn 10-20 starts as the Orioles stress-tested their prospects looking for someone to break through.
Now, however, Young faces the uphill battle of climbing a depth chart that has as many as nine or ten starters in front of him. The assumption is that the rotation coming out of spring training will be Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Tomoyuki Sugano, Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Trevor Rogers will likely start the year at Norfolk, but any of them could be the next man up after each pitching in Baltimore last season. Albert Suárez will remain the swing starter/long reliever and the early buzz out of Sarasota is that Kyle Bradish plans to return sometime in 2025.
There are similarities between Young’s situation and that of former Orioles reliever Mike Baumann. Both were tall, effective minor league starters that showed high-strikeout upside but were not quite good enough to crack the major league rotation.
Young, however, may not have the same upside as a reliever that Baumann had. Baumann’s fastball flirted with triple digits as a prospect and his slider was better than any of Young’s secondary pitches. It’s not often that you see young pitchers throwing in the low to mid 90s make the transition to reliever. It won’t be easy in an Orioles pen where the average fastball velocity among O’s relievers will be 97-98mph.
At 26 years old, Young may face a make or break year in the Orioles organization. If he can leap ahead of the Povich/McDermott/Rogers pack with a dominant showing at Norfolk, there may be a future for him in Baltimore. Failing that, he may be an ideal trade candidate should the O’s feel the need to bring in outside reinforcements at other positions.