With young prospects graduating into bonafide major league stars, the Baltimore Orioles are serious contenders not only for the division but to win the World Series. Fortunately for them, the team is perhaps in its best position to make serious trade deadline upgrades in the Mike Elias era. After two straight deadlines of not going all-in, it seems Elias and the Orioles front office are preparing to make significant additions to center field.
The #Orioles are “on the lookout for a center fielder,” per @BNightengale
Cedric Mullins has struggled mightily this season and Baltimore has the ammo to make an impact addition. pic.twitter.com/dDvv7bxVto
— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) June 16, 2024
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported over the weekend that Baltimore is “on the lookout for a center fielder” due to Cedric Mullins‘s struggles. Plus, the backup option, Colton Cowser, has largely been inconsistent with the bat and might profile better in one of the corner spots.
Baltimore Orioles Looking for Center Field Upgrades
Despite his struggles with the bat (.189/.240/.323), Mullins provides value with his fielding and speed. In 500 1/3 innings in center this season, Mullins has one Defensive Run Saved and three Outs Above Average.
However, his 0.0 fWAR indicates that his good fielding and base running are completely outweighed by his poor offense this season. The Orioles don’t have to completely give up on a relatively inexpensive player controlled through 2025, especially one who tallied 30 homers and steals a couple of seasons ago.
Since his walk-off homer against Minnesota on April 17, Cedric Mullins has gone 15-for-108 (.139).
“I try to let my defense kind of let me get my momentum going into my at-bats. It’s really been a struggle. I’m frustrated, but I’m working every day to get out of it.” #Orioles
— Luke Jones (@BaltimoreLuke) June 2, 2024
At the very least, Mullins can still provide value as a defensive replacement or pinch-runner late in games. But if the Orioles are aiming to push hard for a championship this season, improving the offensive output from center field. would be wise
Per Nightengale, Baltimore appears to be heading in this direction, and the timing seems right. The trade market is often littered with solid outfield bats. Baltimore’s farm system has many high-quality prospects that can bring back a legitimate upgrade. Nightingale didn’t provide names that the Orioles might target, but plenty of players should be available.
Luis Robert Jr.
It’s no secret that the Chicago White Sox will make every player available by the deadline. Luis Robert Jr. is risthe headliner among the position players. Earlier in June, Nightengale reported that Chicago aims to receive a package on par with what the San Diego Padres dealt for Juan Soto.
No team has a deeper farm system than Baltimore, meaning the Orioles might be best equipped to offer that type of package. However, Robert Jr. is not Soto, and many around the league are skeptical that he would cost that much.
The Chicago White Sox & Baltimore Orioles are a trade deadline match
Samuel Basallo to CWS in a package for Luis Robert or Garrett Crochet https://t.co/esCTmYRLsT
— Mr. RF Bleachers (@MrRFBleachers) June 17, 2024
As a player, Robert Jr. possesses electric tools and skills. That said, he also possesses serious flaws. The Cuban has only played more than 98 games in a season once (145 in 2023). This year, Robert Jr. already missed multiple weeks after suffering a right hip flexor strain in early April.
Additionally, the 26-year-old brings an incredibly flawed process at the plate. He ranks among the worst in MLB in strikeout and walk rates. Plus, not many hitters whiff and swing at pitches out of the zone more than Robert Jr. This lack of discipline can help prevent him from consistently reaching his full potential. Pitchers also know how to expose this in the postseason.
Despite the warts, Robert Jr. will undoubtedly upgrade center field for the Orioles. For his career, Robert Jr. has hit .275/.323/.501 (124 wRC+) with 14 DRS and 26 OAA. Last year, his first season staying predominately healthy, Robert Jr. mashed 38 homers and stole 20 bases.
Mariners announcers: ” Luis Robert Jr. is going to pinch hit. Be careful.”
Luis Robert: Hits game-tying home run on the first pitch
(via @ROOTSPORTS_NW) pic.twitter.com/9HgAb8gmf6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 13, 2024
Robert Jr. could be hit or miss and might not be a player who fully leads a team. However, many expect him to benefit from a change of scenery and an established culture with proven leaders.
JJ Bleday and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Robert Jr. will likely represent the best position player available and traded at this year’s deadline. If Baltimore moves on from him, they could target non-established youngsters with high potential. JJ Bleday of the Oakland Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the Miami Marlins both fit this mold and play for sellers.
Both have top-prospect pedigrees and, like Mullins, swing left-handed. Both have hit 10 homers and are having solid offensive seasons (Bleday 131 wRC+, Chisholm Jr. 120 wRC+). Unfortunately, neither has a long track record of success.
Chisholm Jr.
Chisholm Jr. broke out in an All-Star 2022 season. He produced a .860 OPS (136 wRC+) with 14 homers, 10 doubles, and 12 steals. However, he played just 60 games, all at second base. He followed that season with league-average offense, more injuries, and bad defense in his first year in center.
To his credit, Chisholm Jr. has rebounded with the bat in 2024 and remained healthy. That said, his defensive metrics are still not great, and he has questions about his personality/clubhouse presence.
But he could fit the Orioles well and would surely upgrade the offensive output from center field. As mentioned earlier, Mullins could always replace him late in games if needed. He’s also a young, inexpensive player with multiple years of control. The Marlins won’t give him away, but the new regime seems interested in clearing house.
Bleday
For a few years, Bleday looked like a bust after the Marlins drafted him in the first round of the 2019 draft. The powerful lefty featured an uppercut swing that prevented him from making consistent solid contact. His struggles in the minors even translated to the big league level in 2022-23.
However, he is having a breakout season in Oakland. Offensively, he’s producing solid walks and strikeouts without sacrificing power. Defensive metrics don’t love his outfield play, but his offence makes up for it. If Mullins replaces him late in games, Bleday could move to a corner outfield spot (positions Chisholm has never played).
JJ Bleday with the #walkoff winner in Oakland! pic.twitter.com/oydMgn0gHT
— MLB (@MLB) June 8, 2024
TBleday might have more upside, but acquiring him will likely cost more prospect capital. It’s unclear how motivated Oakland is to trade the inexpensive youIt’sreakout star with multiple years of control.
Neither Chisholm Jr. nor Bleday are established stars. Both have better offensive seasons than Mullins, but neither comes with a track record that guarantees they’ll be better than him through this October. But perhaps they player development team likes certain aspects of their game and thinks that can unlock consistency and untapped potential.
Older Veterans Having Solid Seasons
One potential deadline strategy for Baltimore could be to spend elite prospects on pitching additions while making smaller upgrades in center. This would likely mean acquiring a solid but unspectacular veteran to lengthen the lineup rather than carry it.
Two possibilities include Kevin Pillar (Los Angeles Angels) and Harrison Bader (New York Mets). Pillar is currently having the best offensive season among the group. In 114 plate appearances, he is hitting .336/.377/.589 with six homers and seven doubles.
Kevin Pillar has been UNREAL with the Angels. pic.twitter.com/zPTFZlwN9S
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) May 22, 2024
Unfortunately, Pillar’s poor contact quality, small sample size, and bad walk rates make Pillar’s regression likely. He also has never produced an OPS+ above 100 in a full season in his career. But, perhaps Pillar will continue to hit over the next month, which could lead Baltimore to buy the hot hand.
At this point, the Orioles could upgrade center field by simply platooning Mullins and Pillar. This could improve the lineup on a nightly basis by limiting bad matchups and will not cost a lot.
On the other hand, Bader is hitting well and doesn’t need to platoon. Overall, he possesses a slash line of .274doesn’t391 with a 106 wRC+ in 215 plate appearances. Also, the righty is actually hitting right-handers better (.300 AVG) than southpaws (.224 AVG) in almost double the plate appearances.
Harrison Bader is an elite 2 hitter pic.twitter.com/WVVvLMzLPh
— Mets’d Up Podcast (@MetsdUp) June 12, 2024
Bader also represents one of the best defensive center fielders in the game and is tested in high pressure environments (161 games played in New York and a .904 OSP in 63 postseason plate appearances). Bader will save more runs with his glove than Mullins and, based on 2024’s production, will play a bigger role in run production.
Lastly, Baltimore’s acquisition of Bader will kill two birds with one stone. If the Mets sell, Luis Severino will be one of the best pitchers on the market. The Orioles could use their deep farm system to acquire both Severino and Bader from the Mets in just one deal.
MLB currently lacks good hitters in center field. So, while Bader isn’t a star, the Orioles could benefit from acquiring the solid veteran who isn’t having a good year while also picking up a high-quality starting pitcher.
Main Photo: © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
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