With the new ownership group fully established, the time has come for the Orioles to lock up the first of their young stars.
The Orioles addressed a pair of needs over the weekend by signing outfielder Tyler O’Neill and catcher Gary Sánchez. Baltimore still must add at least one starter and one reliever, and the club remains active in the pitching market, but that doesn’t mean it cannot take care of its own.
Adley Rutschman emerged as the face of the rebuild on the first day of the 2019 MLB draft. The Birds selected Rutschman with the number one overall pick out of Oregon State, and Rutschman was immediately labeled the top-ranked prospect in Baltimore’s system.
Rutschman became the first of three consecutive Orioles to be named the top prospect in all of baseball. Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday also appear worthy of massive extensions, but the pair are represented by Scott Boras. Boras clients rarely consider contract extensions prior to free agency.
Rutschman employs Wasserman’s Dan Vertlieb, which should not immediately rule out an extension. That being said, it takes two to tango. While a contract extension could be mutually beneficial to both the backstop and the Orioles, only Rutschman knows whether he’s willing to play ball.
There’s really no way of knowing whether Baltimore would prioritize getting this done either. Mike Elias has always provided politically correct responses to questions about extending the team’s young talent. The Orioles hope to invest significant capital in a top-of-the-line starter this offseason, and the club could still favor keeping Henderson, Holliday and Grayson Rodriguez long term.
Almost every team not based in New York or California has difficulty rostering several star players for a lengthy period. The concept seemed completely impractical in Baltimore less than two years ago, but business changed in a big way last offseason.
David Rubenstein brought a renewed sense of optimism when he purchased the team. The Orioles now appear to have the necessary capital to keep players like Rutschman in Baltimore for a long time.
Now that there’s a chance of this actually happening, how motivated should the Orioles be to get this done? Baltimore recently tendered Rutschman a contract in his first season of arbitration. He appears set to make between $5-6 million in 2025 before earning significant raises in 2026 and 2027. Rutschman would be an unrestricted free agent in 2028 before his age 30 season.
Rutschman was named an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He holds a 13.1 bWAR after 415 career games. He slashed .277/.374/.435 with 20 homers in 2023 and replicated those numbers in the first half of last season.
Rutschman scuffled after starting the All-Star game in Texas and slashed .207/.282/.303 over his final 58 games. He hit 16 of his 19 homers before the break, and clearly looked off at the plate for an extended period of time. Rutschman and the Orioles both refuted injury rumors that materialized during his extended slump.
The Orioles felt the loss of production down the stretch. Several players struggled at the plate, and the Birds left the playoffs early for the second consecutive season. The club hired new hitting coaches for 2025, and the time off should certainly benefit Rutschman.
There’s no way off knowing whether he was powering through an injury, but the physical nature of his day job certainly seemed to take a toll. Rutschman slashed .298/.366/.488 over 45 games when serving as the designated hitter compared to a .231/.299/.351 line when working behind the plate. The former first-round pick also fared better as a DH in 2023 (.284/.374/.500), but the discrepancy was not nearly as extreme (.276/.375/.411 as a catcher).
Extensions are tricky with catchers due to the physical nature of the position. Rutschman is most valuable when performing behind the dish, but his bat still brings plenty to the table as a DH or first baseman. At a minimum, the numbers show Rutschman should continue to flourish at the plate if/when he’s forced to stop catching over 100 games a season.
Rutschman’s second-half struggles could provide Baltimore an opportunity to save a few dollars. It would also represent a sizable commitment to a player that showed up and immediately helped change the culture in the clubhouse. The Orioles could look to buy out the arbitration years while extending the Oregon native through his early 30s.
Baltimore declined to get sentimental with former Rule-5 pick Anthony Santander. Mike Elias is a businessman, and he preferred the value O’Neill would provide at the market price. It’s difficult to factor intangibles and leadership into modern-day analytics, but the Orioles will continue to count on Rutschman’s cultural impact without the presence of Santander and James McCann.
Elias should be locked in on bringing back Corbin Burnes or acquiring Max Fried, but the pros know how to multitask. The Orioles can get away without extending Rutschman or any of their other young stars right now, but the club has an opportunity to make a statement to its core. The move would also demonstrate a commitment to winning both now and in the future to free agents like Burnes and Fried.