First base is not the Orioles’ top priority this winter, but the veteran offers an intriguing combination of experience, performance, and affordability that should be considered.
Do the Orioles need a first baseman? Not exactly. Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn have shared the position with relative success the last two seasons, and they are poised to do so once again in 2025. Coby Mayo is also waiting in the wings, seemingly blocked at third base and the organization yet to get him time in the outfield. So given all of that context, adding Carlos Santana might not make a ton of sense. But let’s think through it anyway.
Santana is a veteran with 15 seasons of big league experience. He has been to the postseason several times in his career, including a World Series run with Cleveland in 2016. As a switch-hitter, he would alleviate some of the Orioles lefty-heavy lineup issues. That checks a lot of boxes that this team is supposedly after this offseason. And, despite turning 39 years old this coming April, the guy can still play at a high level.
With the Twins in 2024, Santana played in 150 games and posted a .238/.328/.420 batting line, a 114 wRC+ with 23 home runs, 26 doubles, 65 walks, and 99 strikeouts. To go along with the work at the plate, he played stellar defense and earned his first career Gold Glove.
Santana would bring a plate presence with him that few Orioles possess. The veteran has a keen eye, and always has. Years ago, he may been the most selective hitter in baseball, and often was among the league leaders in walk rate. That is no longer the case, but he is still patient up there, posting better-than-average chase rates and whiff rates, which lowers his strikeouts and increases his walks. Those are skillsets that may not transform the Orioles offense, but would give it more dimension.
Rather than fading in 2024, Santana improved as the season went on. He didn’t hit his first home run until April 25. From that point on he had a .253/.342/.460 slash line and a 129 wRC+. The .768 OPS he posted in September was his second-best month of the entire seasons (.961 OPS in June). That could also be an asset for an Orioles lineup that struggled mightily down the stretch.
That Gold Glove he earned was not a “Lifetime Achievement Award” either. No first baseman in MLB had a higher fielding run value (11) or outs above average (14) than Santana. By just about every metric, he was the best defender at his position in all of baseball this past season.
All of that production for Santana was worth 2.5 bWAR and 3.0 fWAR for the year. For comparison, Mountcastle was worth 2.6 bWAR and 1.5 fWAR in 2024 while Ryan O’Hearn was worth 1.9 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR. The numbers can make your head spin. Just know that difference came down to the preferences in how FanGraphs and Baseball Reference calculate their WAR metrics. Both are legitimate to take under consideration, though some analysts have their favorite.
In a way, Santana is a combination of Mountcastle and O’Hearn. He hits from both sides of the plate. He plays the positive defense that Mountcastle offers. He gets on base at a higher clip than Mountcastle but lower than O’Hearn. His slugging percentage is in line with both of them. So while a theoretical swapping of the incumbent platoon for Santana might not improve overall output from the first base position, it would come from one roster spot rather than two.
Of course, Mountcastle and O’Hearn were not a strict platoon in 2024. They were both in the starting lineup frequently, and when they weren’t they would often come in to pinch hit. In those cases, it is beneficial to have two, cost effective bats on the roster.
Cost will come into consideration for any new player, and Santana is no different. He made just $5.25 million in 2024, but after such a good showing should get a raise in 2025, maybe up to the $10 million range. A lengthy agreement probably is not on the table for the soon-to-be 39-year-old, although he has said he wants to play three or four more seasons. Something like a one-year deal worth $10 million with a team option for 2026 and a buyout would seem a reasonable ask from his point of view.
Mountcastle is projected to make $6.6 million in arbitration. O’Hearn already had his $8 million option for 2025 picked up. The Orioles are not going to spend an additional $10 million on a 1B/DH type in free agent, unless they move at least one of the incumbents. To this point, that has not been rumored as a consideration, but the offseason is young yet.
What sort of value Mountcastle or O’Hearn have in a trade is unclear. It likely would not be huge, but it could be enough to bring back a decent relief option alone, or perhaps as part of a larger package for a more impactful deal.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Orioles have a nice set up at first base with some potential heirs (Mayo or Heston Kjerstad) with a chance to step in at some point in 2025. Bending over backwards for a chance to only slightly improve the position is not a priority. But it is intriguing to think about the impact that a veteran with so much experience in various clubhouses and a proven track of longevity would have on this team that is still learning how to win long term. It’s the sort of opportunity that should not be rejected out of hand.