The Orioles need a starting pitcher. Why not reunite with one of the best?
The Orioles came into the offseason with a checklist that included a backup catcher, a right-handed hitting outfielder, and a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. They knocked those first two off the list with Gary Sánchez and Tyler O’Neill, but still need to address the third.
Corbin Burnes had a fantastic 2024 season for the Orioles. When the season ended and he declared free agency, it only made sense that the Orioles should try to re-sign him. But his guaranteed big payday, his notoriously tough agent Scott Boras, and the Orioles’ reputation for not signing big free agent contracts all stood in the way.
General manager Mike Elias has said the Orioles are in the mix for any pitcher. But until they actually pony up and make the big contract signing, many of us aren’t going to believe it will happen. And sure enough, as the offseason has gone on, the pitchers have started coming off the board. And so far, none of them have come to the Orioles. Two big names, Blake Snell and Max Fried, have signed. Lesser names have signed too. Nathan Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi, and Luis Severino are off the market. The Red Sox traded for Garrett Crochet.
Orioles fans are getting nervous. Who will be at the top of the rotation next year? Will they really roll into the season with Zach Eflin at the top of rotation and, uh, Trevor Rogers at the bottom? That’s no way to make the playoffs for the third straight year.
As of now, at least, Burnes is still out there. And he is the top-of-the-rotation pitcher the Orioles need. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Corbin Burnes will sign a seven-year, $200 million contract. That would be the largest contract in Orioles history. Max Fried just signed with the Yankees for eight years, $218 million. So that seems like the bare minimum that Burnes will end up getting.
We all know what Burnes brings to the table. He came to the Orioles via trade with the Brewers last February, not long before spring training started. It was a blockbuster of a trade, and he gave the Orioles exactly what they hoped for. Starting with six innings and 11 strikeouts on Opening Day and ending with eight innings of one-run baseball in game one of the Wild Card round, Corbin Burnes delivered.
He pitched nearly 200 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA, putting up an fWAR of 3.7. He made his fourth consecutive All-Star team. He went out there for 32 starts and, aside from some speed bumps in August, gave his team the chance to win every single time.
Early in the year, when he was facing the Brewers, a reporter asked him if he felt he had an advantage against his former team. His answer: “I would say I have an advantage over every lineup.” It demonstrated a swagger not seen on the Orioles in some time and put me permanently on his side.
Burnes turned 30 years old on October 22nd, and he is not the pitcher he was back in his Cy Young season of 2021. His strikeout rates have dropped every year since 2021, but he remains effective in getting batters out. His fastball velocity and chase rates are still very good, and he keeps runners off the bases. His opponents’ OBP was just .274.
2024 was his third straight season of pitching over 190 innings, and in his 32 starts, Burnes allowed two or fewer runs in 22. He allowed just three in another six. Since becoming a starting pitcher in 2020, Burnes has a 2.88 ERA, which is an ERA+ of 142. He is the pitcher you want on the mound for your team every single time.
Trading for Burnes for one year was a great move, but signing him to anchor the rotation for the next several years would be the kind of move to take this team to the next level. It would give the team a competitive advantage on the field and shore up the rotation for years to come. And it would finally signal the change we’ve all been waiting to see from the front office.
Do I think the Orioles will sign Corbin Burnes? No, I do not. I don’t necessarily subscribe to the details laid out in the article on Pitcher List yesterday, but the fact is that until the Orioles actually do spend, there is no reason to think that they will. And even if they are willing to spend, it remains to be seen if they are willing to compete with other teams for the highest tier of free agents.
Burnes will sign soon. I am not letting myself get my hopes up that it will be with the Orioles. But imagine it is?