The trade market for starters is not as full as it was a year ago, but the Orioles remain in a good position to land the top available arm if they want to.
The Orioles enter this offseason with one glaring need: starting pitching. Kyle Bradish is recovering from Tommy John surgery and may not return until late in 2025. The team cannot count on him to be their “ace” next season. Corbin Burnes is a free agent and likely to land a big, long-term deal. The O’s are said to be in the mix there, but Mike Elias is yet to show he has the stomach for big contracts at all, let alone giving one to a pitcher over the age of 30. What’s left of the rotation is OK, but clearly in need of a frontline arm.
It’s a fair assumption that the Orioles will not stand pat in the starter department. Elias always adds a legitimate arm in the offseason. Last year it was Burnes. The winter before that it was Kyle Gibson, and there was Jordan Lyles before him. Obviously, that represents a wide range of talents with, thankfully, an upward trajectory. It would be tough to find someone better than Burnes, but if the Orioles were to return to the Gibson/Lyles level without also adding someone that slots higher into a big league rotation, the fanbase would be rightfully outraged.
While the free agent pool of starting pitchers is flush, there are also reasons why the Orioles would stay away from many of them. Burnes is over 30 and might command a huge commitment in years and dollars. Max Fried could be more affordable than Burnes but is also over 30, and comes with some injury concerns. Blake Snell is talented and could go for a short-term deal, but may also be the least predictable pitcher out there.
After those three, there are a bunch of mid-tier arms that would improve the rotation, and a few veterans coming off injury-laden or disappointing seasons that have a chance to rebuild in 2025. But none of them would transform the rotation in the same way that Burnes, Fried, or Snell would.
So, if you’re a GM of a contending team looking to improve your rotation, but can’t reason to fork over the cash it would take to land one of the top arms in free agency, what do you do? You call GMs of bad teams with talented pitchers and see what it would take to trade for one of them, of course.
This was the space that that Orioles occupied last winter as well. For months, all of the talk was about how they were working the White Sox for Dylan Cease. If not Cease, then maybe the Marlins would part with Jesús Luzardo. Ultimately, the deal they made is one that was barely talked about: Burnes came over from the Brewers.
If the O’s dive back into the trade market this winter, there do not seem to be as many names bandied about. But one that will certainly be available is once again on the White Sox. This time, it’s lefty Garrett Crochet.
Crochet is 25 years old, he is under team control through the 2026 season, and his projected salary for 2025 is $2.9 million. In terms of value, there may be no finer pitcher in the game.
A glance at Crochet’s Baseball Savant page is a beautiful thing. The guy throws hard, gets a ton of whiffs, and keeps walks to a minimum. He ended 2024 with a 3.58 ERA, which was inflated by the poor team around him, as indicated by the 2.83 xERA, 2.69 FIP, and 2.38 xFIP he also produced. His 12.9 strikeouts per nine and 2.0 walks per nine are what you would expect from a closer, not a starter.
Of course, there are negatives. Chief among them is that Crochet has only recently become a starter. He started some in college at the University of Tennessee back in 2018 and ‘19, but was drafted in the COVID year and catapulted directly to the big leagues by the White Sox to pitch as a reliever in 2020. There was no development time, meaning that his first start for the White Sox in 2024 was the very first time he started a game as a professional.
Now, the flip side of that is that there is room to grow. The results in 2024 were pretty darn good for a guy with such limited experience. Imagine what an organization that is forward-thinking in terms of pitching development could do with him. The Orioles certainly fit the bill there. But let’s not get too excited, there are other negatives to discuss.
Crochet comes with some injury worries. He missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned to the White Sox in May of 2023, but then dealt with shoulder inflammation for most of the season, ultimately tossing just 12.2 big league innings that year. It appears he was fine throughout 2024, but the White Sox were also protective of him, limiting him to just 146 total innings.
That included a pretty drastic reduction in his workload post-June. His starts were truncated from six and seven innings to no more than four through the end of the season. That was accompanied by a dip in performance. Prior to the All-Star break, Crochet had a 3.02 ERA. Post All-Star break he posted a 5.12 ERA.
Let’s remember that the 2024 White Sox were a dreadful team. Not just bad, but one of the worst teams in MLB history. They won three games in July, four games in August. One can imagine it’s tough to stay motivated when the roster around you is so poor. And Crochet’s pitch characteristics remained strong in July, August, and September. His fastball velocity actually climbed late in the season.
It may have been even tougher on Crochet since there was so much trade talk around him leading up to the deadline, and then he did not get dealt. Of course, part of the reason he was not traded is likely his own fault. Remember that in the lead up to the deadline he made it clear that in order for him to pitch in the playoffs for any team he demanded a contract extension. That likely threw some cold water on any potential deals so late in the process.
That demand also looms large this offseason. Does it still stand? Crochet didn’t seem to come off of it after the deadline had passed in late July. That will surely impact the teams that are deeply involved with the White Sox because part of Crochet’s allure is that he is, relatively, affordable for the next two seasons. Teams may be able to see past injuries and a lack of experience if it comes in a $3 million package. But balloon that package to $100 million over six years or so, and it may get less attractive.
At the start of November, White Sox GM Chris Getz told a Chicago radio station that the organization is “focusing on position player return…that is our primary focus in any trade talks…We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear.”
The Orioles’ farm system is not as flush as it once was with hitting prospects, but there remains plenty of talent to swing a Crochet type of deal. It starts with Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, but could also include the likes of Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vance Honeycutt, and Dylan Beavers, among others.
There is enough here to land Crochet, but it could clean out the farm system in a big way. That might be OK for the Orioles as they look to compete at the big league level over the next few years. And don’t forget that the organization could have a ton of early picks in the 2025 draft if Burnes and Anthony Santander, two players that turned down the qualifying offer, sign elsewhere this winter.
Crochet is one of baseball’s most talented arms. On top of that, he is young and cost controlled for the next few seasons. There is no question that he would improve the Orioles rotation in a big way. But he comes with substantial question marks that Mike Elias and the front office would need to make sense of before pulling off what would likely be an expensive trade.