O’Neill, who hit 31 home runs with Boston this season, can opt out after one year of the contract.
The Orioles have got their right-handed batter to add to the outfield mix. On Saturday night, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman was first to report on the pending-physical signing of outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a three-year contract that has a value of up to $49.5 million. O’Neill can opt out of the contract after just one season.
This contract marks the first time in the Mike Elias tenure as Orioles GM that the team has given out a deal that guarantees multiple years to a player. That’s no guarantee that O’Neill will want to stick around for the three years. The best case scenario for the O’s is probably that O’Neill does so well that he’s gone after a year.
Camden Chat’s Stacey profiled O’Neill as part of her offseason wish list for the Orioles a couple of weeks ago. The case for O’Neill is pretty easy, as there’ve been flashes of greatness in his career, none moreso than his 2021 campaign with the Cardinals, a 6 WAR season where he OPSed over .900 while going on to win a Gold Glove as well.
O’Neill wasn’t quite on that level this past season with the Red Sox, batting .241/.336/.511 in 113 games, with defensive numbers that aren’t equal to his past reputation. He’ll presumably be dropping in to right field, closing the door on the Orioles re-signing Anthony Santander. Tony Taters wasn’t much of a defensive whiz either, so even if O’Neill doesn’t return to earlier form, the O’s may not have lost much in that area.
For O’Neill, the new dimensions coming to Oriole Park at Camden Yards could prove to be significant. 25 of his 31 home runs this past season were hit to either left or left-center field. He swung the bat fast, hit the ball hard, missed the ball entirely a lot (5th percentile whiff rate,) and also walked a lot.
There’s also a case to dread O’Neill as a signing, summed up by FanGraphs in their top 50 free agents ranking, where O’Neill was deemed 21st in the class:
Of course, O’Neill’s game leads to hellacious slumps too. He had 82 plate appearances in May and struck out 36 times. He missed time due to a leg infection, finger inflammation, a head-to-head collision, and a disappointingly normal knee injury. That’s how O’Neill’s career has gone; breathtaking highs and bizarre lows in alternating waves. He’s a Gold Glove winner and was also one of the worst outfielders in baseball this year.
There are a variety of entirely plausible outcomes for this signing that could easily start to suggest that Elias doesn’t have the ability to identify and sign players who can make a medium-term positive impact with the Orioles. But that’s a lifetime of being an Orioles fan influencing my thinking. This is the first guy who has gotten Elias to step out and spend a little money and that sure points to Elias believing in good things coming from him.
This is a signing that’s a bit above the expected market rate for O’Neill, though not by too much much. FG’s Ben Clemens predicted a deal for three years and $45 million, with MLB Trade Rumors at three years and $42 million. If O’Neill’s a solid Oriole, no one is going to regret the “extra” $4-8 million over the possible length of the deal. If he’s not a good Oriole, fans will not want him here at any price.
One interesting question raised by the signing is: What does this signing mean for Heston Kjerstad? Maybe it doesn’t mean much. If Kjerstad is going to be the strong side of a platoon as either the right fielder or designated hitter, then he’ll play most of the time because most pitchers are righties. That’s another thing where we won’t know what Elias is thinking until he does something to commit one way or another.