The Baltimore Orioles sit at the bottom of the American League East with a 9-14 record and one of their worst starts in recent memory. There are many factors contributing to this, but the most recent skid has exposed a pitching corps lacking the ability to get outs and go deep into games. That said, with all of the Orioles’ injuries and the potential for some very good pitchers to come back in the next few months, there is reason to hope that the ship can be steered in the right direction. Here we break down each of the current Orioles pitchers in the starting rotation and what needs to happen moving forward for this team to stay competitive:
Tomoyuki Sugano, 2-1, 3.54 ERA. Sugano is currently the Orioles’ ace and has yet to give up more than 3 runs in a start. While he was shaky at first in terms of going deep, he has pitched for 7 innings in his past two starts, giving a very tired bullpen a much-needed break. An optimal rotation has Sugano third or fourth, but for now he is the most consistent piece.
Dean Kremer, 2-3, 6.84 ERA. Kremer has had a really up and down season so far but there are signs of life. He gave up only 2 runs in 4.1 innings to Kansas City but then followed that up with 6 in 4.2 against Arizona. He rebounded really well against Cleveland with 1 run in 5.1 but then faltered against the Nationals with 5 in 5.1. If he can calm down this roller coaster and find a way to get 6 innings consistently, he could stabilize the rotation significantly, so there is hope that he comes around.
Cade Povich, 0-2, 6.38 ERA. Povich has only really faltered in a big way once in his most recent start against Cincinnati where he gave up 7 runs in 3.1 innings, but before that he gave up 2 in 4.1 against a strong offensive Toronto team and only 1 in 6 innings against Kansas City. Povich has the talent, but it’s easy to forget he’s young and inexperienced and needs to experience growing pains to actually get better. He needs to keep heading out there to get reps and if he can consistently get 5-6 innings per start, his numbers should improve over time.
Brandon Young, 0-0, 6.75 ERA. Obviously his first start with 4 IP and 3 ER wasn’t optimal, but he’s getting big league experience and, like Povich, just needs to go out once every five games to get experience. He’s an unknown factor in the current rotation, but while there are so many injuries, this is a great time to get him those reps.
Charlie Morton, 0-5, 10.89 ERA. This is the one very bad spot in this rotation and it’s hard to be hopeful. During this difficult stretch, the Orioles need someone that can eat up innings and pitch through what end up seeming like scheduled losses, but Sunday’s Nationals game proved that he can’t even do that. Morton is a veteran, and he still deserves a few more shots before being relegated to the bullpen, but the clock is certainly ticking.
Reason to hope:
Zach Eflin, possible return mid-May/early June: The Orioles’ clear ace to start the season and likely moving forward, Eflin’s injury appears to be minor, and his return could be in a few weeks. If Morton doesn’t show any signs of improvement in his next few starts, then this substitution seems like a no-brainer.
Trevor Rodgers, possible return mid-May/early June: Until Morton arrived, this name sent many Orioles fans into a frenzy. Rogers had a very bad stint in the Majors for the O’s until he went on the IL. Regardless of his past issues, he is a lefty in a right-dominant rotation and could provide some help should Povich or Young falter. Rogers just pitched for Chesapeake, giving up 2 runs in 3 innings but, more importantly, throwing only 44 pitches. Rogers could be a much-needed 6 IP, 4.50 ERA fifth pitcher in our rotation down the line.
Grayson Rodriguez, possible return mid-June/July: As per an April 23 article on the Orioles’ website, Rodriguez continues to suffer setbacks and had a recent lat strain. That said, he’s symptom free now and going to start throwing again in early May. The current best-case scenario is that he comes back mid-June, the realistic one is him coming back after the All-Star break, but the hard reality is that if the O’s can’t stay in the Wild Card hunt, it’s hard to see them getting him out on the mound in a lost season.
Kyle Bradish possible return July/August: Bradish had Tommy John surgery but has thrown some bullpen sessions, and if he is on the early end of the 14-16 month recovery, could be back in July. Like Rodriguez, his return likely depends on the state of the Orioles’ postseason chances, but Bradish is unquestionably one of the Orioles’ most consistent pitchers throughout the last three years, and his return could make a big difference.
An eventual dream rotation? Hard to say, but best-case scenario is probably Eflin, Rodriguez, Bradish, Sugano and Kremer. Worst case? Let’s not go there, but maybe get out there and start throwing from 90 feet in case your name gets called!
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