The Tigers face the Orioles with a trio of young, talented, homegrown starting pitchers. Must be nice.
Two years ago, the Orioles were the envy of baseball, riding a young, talented roster to a 101-win season and AL East title. The Detroit Tigers were perpetual losers, muddling through a stalled rebuild and missing the playoffs for a ninth straight year.
Look where we are now.
The two teams’ fortunes seemed to reverse at nearly the exact same moment — about halfway through the 2024 season. The O’s, after starting 57-33, played sub-.500 baseball for the rest of the year and were swept out of the playoffs in two games. The Tigers, meanwhile, were an out-of-nowhere sensation, recovering from a 37-46 start to erupt in the second half and storm into the postseason.
This year, each team has continued its momentum from last season, for better or for worse. As the two clubs meet in Detroit this weekend, the Tigers (15-10) are tied for the best record in the AL. The Orioles (10-14) have the third-worst.
As an Orioles fan, you can’t help feeling jealous about the team the Tigers have been able to assemble. All three of their starting pitchers in this series were drafted and developed by Detroit — including the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal — and all are having fantastic starts to the 2025 season.
Skubal was a ninth-round pick in 2018 whom the organization molded into arguably the game’s best pitcher. Casey Mize was the first overall pick in 2018, and Jackson Jobe went third overall in 2021. It turns out you actually can have success drafting pitchers in the first round, something Mike Elias has never done with the Orioles. No Elias-drafted pitcher in any round has ever made it to the majors for the Birds.
The Tigers supplemented their homegrown core of starters by re-signing Jack Flaherty, who dazzled in the first half of 2024 for Detroit before he was traded to the Dodgers. Flaherty has a 2.63 ERA in five starts, though the O’s won’t face their former teammate in this series.
The Tigers also boast a fantastic bullpen made up mostly of other teams’ castoffs, including former O’s prospect Brenan Hanifee, who has a 1.54 ERA in 10 games. Detroit can mix and match with a stable of live arms, including lefties Tyler Holton (1.54 ERA) and Brant Hurter (2.45) and righties Will Vest (0.84) and veteran Tommy Kahnle (0.96). Kahnle, Vest, and Hurter each have multiple saves this year.
On offense, the Tigers are middle of the pack. Their best hitter so far has been another former #1 overall pick, first baseman Spencer Torkelson, selected one spot ahead of Heston Kjerstad in 2020. Coming off a miserable 2024 season, Torkelson has rejuvenated himself with a team-leading seven home runs and .944 OPS. Left-handed slugger Kerry Carpenter, who has a career .896 OPS against righties, is always a threat, and journeyman utility guy Zach McKinstry has had a sensational start to 2025, slashing .311/.416/.459.
On the other end of the spectrum, Riley Greene has struggled and $140 million man Javier Báez is in his fourth year of being an albatross for Detroit, but Orioles pitchers tend to help slumping hitters boost their stats. The Birds’ two worst starters are pitching in this series, along with a guy making just his second MLB appearance. No doubt the Tigers are licking their chops.
Game 1: Friday, 6:40 PM, MASN2, MLBN (out-of-market)
RHP Brandon Young (0-0, 6.75) vs. RHP Casey Mize (3-1, 2.22)
In the last 10 years, Mize is one of only two pitchers (along with Paul Skenes in 2023) to be selected with the #1 overall pick. The 2018 draftee made it to the bigs two years later and was a solid starter by 2021, but Tommy John and back surgery knocked him out of commission until last season. So far this year he’s bounced back well, carrying a sub-1.00 WHIP in four starts. His 4.01 FIP and .194 BABIP indicate he’s due for regression, but what are the odds of it happening against the Orioles? I’m not holding my breath.
Young will be making his second major league start, something that didn’t seem to be in the Orioles’ plans when they optioned him the day after his first one. But an injury to Cody Poteet allowed the Birds to call Young back up before his mandatory 10-day minor league stint, and here he is again. In his debut last Saturday, he gave up seven hits and three walks but got a bit better as the game went on. Given the state of the rotation, the O’s will be more than happy if they get five serviceable innings out of Young.
Game 2: Saturday, 1:10 PM, MASN2, MLBN (out-of-market)
RHP Charlie Morton (0-5, 10.89) vs. Jackson Jobe (2-0, 2.70)
Well, it’s Charlie Morton day. I don’t know whether to throw up my hands or just throw up. Morton is one of three pitchers to have lost all five of his starts this year, and his 25 earned runs allowed are the most in baseball. He has 15 walks in 20.2 innings. The 41-year-old’s collapse has been fast and dramatic, and on any team with a functioning pitching staff, he would have been jettisoned by now. The Orioles are not that team, and so we all continue to suffer through his outings.
Going against him is a pitcher who was 5 years old when Morton made his major league debut. The 22-year-old Jobe, drafted out of high school in 2021, rocketed to the majors in time for the Tigers’ playoff run last year, making a couple of forgettable postseason appearances. He made the rotation out of spring training this year and has acquitted himself well so far in four starts, though his 10:14 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 20 innings could use improvement. The live-armed Jobe throws five different pitches and his best one is the slider, which has held opponents to a .115 AVG and .154 SLG.
Game 3: Sunday, 1:40 PM, MASN2, MLBN (out-of-market)
RHP Dean Kremer (2-3, 6.84) vs. Tarik Skubal (2-2, 2.83)
Welp. The Orioles couldn’t avoid him forever. Last year the O’s were lucky enough to miss Skubal in both of their series against Detroit, but the 2024 AL Cy Young winner is slated to face — and no doubt dominate — them in the weekend finale. Last year he won the AL pitching triple crown by leading in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228), amassing a league-best 6.4 bWAR. Already this season he has two scoreless outings of 6+ innings. The Orioles can’t even hit against mediocre lefties, let alone great ones. So unless this is the world’s biggest reverse lock, the Birds’ chances of winning this game are slim to none.
That may have been the case even without Skubal, considering the Orioles’ starter is Kremer, who has a 6.84 ERA and an MLB-worst 36 hits allowed. Kremer has run hot and cold before but has finished the last two seasons as a league average-ish starter, so his disastrous start to 2025 is a bit mystifying. (As is true for many of his teammates, for that matter.) As with Morton, though, the Orioles have no real options to replace him, so they’ll just have to keep riding Kremer and hoping he’ll figure things out.