The O’s search for pitching continues, mocking up lineups, and stats!
Good Morning Birdland!
The year is nearly over, but it saved one of its biggest disappointments for the final days. The Orioles’ ace from 2024 will be pitching for another team in 2025. News came in overnight that Corbin Burnes had agreed to a six-year $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, ending the chances of a Baltimore reunion.
The binary outcome of “Orioles do not sign Burnes” is unsurprising. Mike Elias has made it pretty clear that he does not like to hand out big bucks in free agency, especially to pitchers. He has postured otherwise, saying that the team would be “in” on anyone that the front office felt improved the team. Burnes certainly would have done that. He also would have been expensive.
It is something of a shock to see the Diamondbacks be the ones to give out such a contract. They were never really mentioned as a landing spot for Burnes throughout the process. But they have not shied away from starting pitchers recently, handing out $127.5 million in total money to Eduardo Rodríguez and Jordan Montgomery just a year ago. Burnes, of course, is a much different level of spend.
Since the news is just coming out, contract specifics are unclear. The AAV is $35 million through 2030, and Burnes does have an opt out after the 2026 season. But no one has indicated yet whether there is significant deferred money, or if the contract is weighted in any direction. If all the years are equal, and Burnes pitches like himself over the next two years, he would likely do better to opt out after ‘26, but that remains to be seen.
If the Orioles ever were truly interested in that sort of spending, they missed out anyway. They will now need to look elsewhere for rotation help. Dylan Cease might be available. The Mariners are always looking to deal, and have plenty of arms. Framber Valdez is allegedly on the block, although trading with the Astros always feels like a prank. Funny enough, the Dbacks would probably give Montgomery away for any sort of salary relief at this point. He was dreadful in 2025, so buyer beware on that one.
This is all assuming that Elias and the front office even think that the Orioles need more impact starters.
By that I mean that Elias and his crew could believe that they did their adding to the 2025 rotation last summer, when they traded for Zach Eflin and Trevor Rogers. Burnes leaving was quite predictable, so they hedged their bets with guys under control for 2025. Eflin was great. Rogers stunk, but is also younger and under control for 2026 too.
If that is their line of thinking, you could then understand if they feel comfortable entering the season as is, especially if they also believe that Kyle Bradish will be back late in the season. In that scenario, there is no need to add an ace. You have one in-house that just needs to get healthy.
I’m not saying you should agree with that thinking! In fact, I think this team does need another dependable starter that you would be comfortable using in the playoffs. But Elias clearly has his tenets, and they do not include forking over tons of cash for pitchers. That always meant that Burnes was unlikely to return. A trade of some significance is (hopefully) still on the table.
Links
Playing with Orioles lineups | Roch Kubatko
Mocking up lineups is fun stuff! I would vehemently disagree with Roch’s decision to bat Tyler O’Neill third against right-handed pitchers. That is not his strength. Also, the Orioles need a freaking lead off hitter. Gunnar is great, but he should be batting with guys on base. Hopefully Jackson Holliday can grow into that role as the season progresses.
Orioles 2024 recap: 9 storylines from a season of hope and disappointment | The Baltimore Banner
It really was a wild year for the Orioles. So many monumental things happened. It would have been cool if it included a playoff win.
1 stat for every team to marvel at from 2024 season | MLB.com
If it’s written by Sarah Langs, you know I’m reading it. You should too. Also, she posted this timely factoid.
There have been 3 players with the first name Corbin in MLB history
Burnes & Carroll will be the first to be teammates
The other, Corbin Martin, was on the Dbacks in 2021-22, but did not overlap at MLB level with Corbin Carroll. He was then claimed on waivers by MIL & then BAL
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) December 28, 2024
Orioles birthdays
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
- Bill Hall turns 45 today. He played in seven games for the Orioles in 2012, and appeared in an episode of The Young and the Restless (alongside J.J. Hardy) in 2007.
- B.J. Ryan is 49. The lefty had a seven-season run in Baltimore from 1999 through 2005. By the end of his time he was a dominant closer, saving 36 games in ‘05. The Blue Jays signed him to a then-record contract for a reliever (five years, $47 million) the following offseason.
- Ray Knight is 72 years old. A long time MLB infielder, Knight spent the 1987 season Baltimore, accumulating 0.5 bWAR in the campaign.
- The late Aurelio Rodríguez (b. 1947, d. 2000) was born on this day. He spent 17 years in the big leagues, and 45 games of that career came with the 1983 Orioles. The veteran infielder struggled at the plate in Baltimore (.119/.130/.119), but provided solid defense before he was released in August of that year.
This day in history
2005 – The Orioles and free agent outfielder Jeromy Burnitz agree to a two-year deal, but it will never be signed. Days later, Burnitz’s agents would claim that the break down resulted from language in the contract regarding a physical while the Orioles believe that Burnitz simply changed his mind.