Some Orioles have been coming through so far, but many have not.
It only feels like it’s been a long week of Orioles baseball because of how they played. Due to two scheduled off days and last Friday’s game being postponed to July, the O’s have only played four games since this time last week. That was still enough time for them to squeeze in the first big bullpen meltdown of the year. As glum as it felt, the Orioles are 2-2 over these four games. They haven’t shown improvement and they haven’t collapsed.
This series looks at each Orioles game, the most crucial play that happened in it and who was involved, and the Oriole who contributed the most positive to a win or negative to a loss. These determinations are made using the Win Probability Added stat, which you can find in game logs on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs.
Here’s how things went over the third week of the Orioles season:
Game 14
- Result: Orioles beat Blue Jays, 5-4
- Orioles record: 6-8
- The biggest play: Cedric Mullins breaks tie by hitting two-run double in sixth inning (+28%)
- The biggest hero: Mullins (.291 WPA)
One notable thing that happened in this game is that the Orioles collected their first save of the year. Félix Bautista was called upon to protect the one-run lead. When he entered the game, the Orioles had an 85% chance to win. After three batters, this was down to 73% because he’d issued two walks, but Bautista protected the lead and got the save. That’s .152 WPA in the first outing. Closers who succeed get big numbers over time.
Mullins with the tiebreaker in a big situation was the biggest positive swing for the Orioles. Coming through with men on and getting two runs in is big at any point in a game, but especially later on. You could easily say that Mullins is the largest bright spot for the O’s so far this season. Perhaps even that he’s the only bright spot up to this point. If he’s going to follow Anthony Santander in having a “just before hitting free agency” season for the ages, I won’t be sad about that – only about the Orioles apparent lack of attempts to secure a contract extension with him.
Game 15
- Result: Orioles lose to Blue Jays, 7-6
- Record: 6-9
- The biggest play: Tyler O’Neill strikes out in 10th inning with man on third and one out (-25%)
- The biggest goat: Jordan Westburg (-.207 WPA)
Falling behind in extra innings as the home team isn’t great because you’d rather give up the run, but the thing about it is that you’re going to get the Manfred Man starting right there on second base too. The Orioles got the tying run to third base with one out. All O’Neill had to do was put the ball in play and see if he could have something productive happen with the would-be tying run. He failed.
Westburg piled up the biggest negative since he took an 0-5 in the game, including a first inning strikeout with a man on third base and only one out (-7%), and flying out in the ninth inning when the winning run was on second base (-10%). Gregory Soto, who blew the three-run eighth inning lead, was just the third-worst O’s WPA for the game (-.154), behind Westburg and O’Neill. Had this lead been blown in the ninth, it would have been a much bigger negative.
Game 16
- Result: Orioles lose to Guardians, 6-3
- Record: 6-10
- The biggest play: Steven Kwan hits two-run home run off Charlie Morton in fifth inning (-13%)
- The biggest goat: Morton (-.188 WPA)
A common theme of every one of Morton’s four starts to date is that Morton pitched badly, put the Orioles in a big hole, and did the most to make the O’s lose that game. All the options that Mike Elias had to try to improve the rotation for this season and he decided to give $15 million to the 41-year-old Morton. This is not looking like it will turn out to be a good decision.
Pretty much the lone positive for the Orioles in this game was Mullins, who was on base three times and stole a base, giving him .101 WPA for the game. Adley Rutschman had just as much impact on the game except in the negatives (-.101 WPA) for his 0-5 night.
Game 17
- Result: Orioles beat Guardians, 9-1
- Record: 7-10
- The biggest play: Jackson Holliday hits a grand slam in the second inning to put the Orioles up, 4-0 (+23%)
- The biggest hero: Holliday (.222 WPA)
It’s never bad when the Orioles hit a grand slam. It’s especially not bad to get a grand slam that breaks a 0-0 tie early in the game. Holliday’s salami put the O’s in a strong position to win the game – the Orioles were 88% to win after that big four-run blast. He needed that. He needs some more good hitting beyond.
It is not unheard of for a team to blow that kind of lead, and goodness knows with the Orioles rotation it would be even less of a surprise. But a better version of Dean Kremer showed up in this game (the #2 positive contributor behind Holliday) and the O’s kept on scoring, so it turned into a relatively comfortable win. I say relatively because the Guardians did load the bases in the eighth when it was still just 5-1. That could have gotten worse, but it didn’t.
The best Orioles so far
This time last week, the best hitter by WPA was Ramón Urías (0.34) and the best pitcher was Zach Eflin (0.26).
- WPA (hitters): Cedric Mullins (0.60), Urías (0.38), Ryan O’Hearn (0.29)
- WPA (pitchers): Seranthony Domínguez (0.35), Bryan Baker (0.30), Yennier Cano (0.30)
- fWAR: Mullins (1.0), O’Hearn (0.5), Cade Povich (0.4)
bWAR leaders are Mullins (0.9) for hitters and Cano (0.5) for pitchers.
The worst Orioles so far
Through two weeks of games, the worst hitter by WPA was Heston Kjerstad (-0.46) and the worst pitcher was Charlie Morton (-0.76).
- WPA (hitters): Jordan Westburg (-0.58), Ramón Laureano (-0.51), Kjerstad (-0.40)
- WPA (pitchers): Morton (-0.94), Dean Kremer (-0.42), Cionel Pérez (-0.29)
- fWAR: Jorge Mateo (-0.5), Pérez (-0.2), Gary Sánchez (-0.2)
bWAR negatives are led by Mateo (-0.5) for hitters and Pérez (-0.4) for pitchers.