Buoyed by the return of All-Star closer Félix Bautista, this bullpen already looks better than last year’s
In at least two ways, the bullpen is the least of the Orioles’ worries right now. I know that expression makes it sound like the Orioles have a LOT of other worries, but that’s not what I mean. The Orioles are not that concerned about the state of the ‘pen right now. Nor should they be.
First of all, the tough decisions (the Opening Day roster is due at noon Tuesday) lie elsewhere. That is, regarding the starting rotation—how long Grayson Rodriguez will be on the shelf, whether Cade Povich is ready, how quickly to bring back Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells—and the position players—how to try and replace Gunnar Henderson while he recovers from an intercostal strain, what to do with all those outfielders, who to include as utility infield depth. Despite losing one portended relief arm to injury this spring, the 35-year-old Andrew Kittredge, who will do an extended IL stay after having had left knee debridement recently, most of the injuries have little to do with the relief.
Second of all, this bullpen is shaping up to quite good. If you don’t believe me, believe Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen, who ranks them a projected second-best of all teams, with an expected 4.3 WAR. Back to that in a second; let’s talk personnel first.
Most of the mystery on the roster, like I said, lies elsewhere. The O’s will likely carry eight relief pitchers, and there’s not too much suspense about who they will be.
First of all, with G-Rod’s injury thrusting Cade Povich into the No. 5 starter role, the bullpen will include the steady stalwart Albert Suárez in a swingman role. Félix Bautista has come back from Tommy John surgery looking mostly like himself, and even 70% of a “Montaña” is pretty scary. Yennier Cano, the “Roca” to Bautista’s Montaña, looks good, as well, with a 1.50 ERA in six outings this spring. Seranthony Domínguez had a bad start to the preseason but is righting the ship of late. Keegan Akin has quietly put together a very nice spring training. Gregory Soto walks too many people (four in seven innings this spring) but he’s a lefty with a scary fastball, so he gets some room for error. Same, to a lesser extent, with southpaw Cionel Pérez, now in his fourth season with the O’s.
The excitement should come down to one spot, then—and even so it’s not like this is forever. The Orioles’ 26-man regularly involves a lot of shuffling around, so we should expect to see appearances from several people who don’t make the initial cut. That includes righties Bryan Baker, Matt Bowman and Roansy Contreras. Bowman, a 33-year-old journeyman, had his contract selected by the Orioles on Sunday, a good sign for him. In parts of six seasons, Bowman has a combined 4.17 ERA and 3.93 FIP. It’s not wow, but it could work.
Meanwhile, the fourth-season Oriole Bryan Baker had a down year last season, with a 5.01 ERA and an -0.1 WAR in 19 games. But he’s come back stronger this spring and people are saying the fastball looks electric.
I’d be surprised if the 25-year-old Roansy Contreras cracks the roster, but stranger things have happened. Contreras has been waived five times this offseason, and has a springtime ERA of 6.76. Yet he’s still in camp, and his stuff is reportedly electric.
Now, to performance. If the Orioles did nothing else, then replacing the highly flawed Craig Kimbrel with Félix Bautista at closer is already a massive improvement. In 57 appearances, the All-Star and potential future Hall of Famer was dreadful: he was worth -1.1 WAR and had 11 losses or blown saves combined. By contrast, Bautista is slated to produce 1.6 WAR, an ERA of 2.66, and a delightful 12.8 K/9 rate.
Among other arms, Fangraphs is also high on Seranthony Domínguez, “a fit second fiddle to Bautista” who “has closer-quality stuff” when he’s on. For that, he’ll have to cut down on last season’s 3.6 BB/9 rate. Reportedly this spring, Seranthony has been throwing in the 96-98 mph range with a huge sliders. Predicts Fangraphs, “A healthy Domínguez is this bullpen’s X-factor, the thing that will elevate it to a great group rather than a merely good one.”
Longenhagen is also high on Yennier Cano, “a Cuban groundball machine with rare fastball velocity for a side-armer.” Last year was a downer for Cano by the All-Star standards of his 2023 turn, when he started the year with an impressive 21 1/3 innings scoreless and had a 1.005 WHIP. Last season, his ERA was a comparatively elevated 3.15 but he still generated a career-high 62.9% groundball rate and a 9.8 strikeout rate last year.
Journeyman-swingman Albert Suárez was one of the Orioles’ best stories in 2024, after spending 2019-23 pitching in Asia. He’s not the flashiest thrower the Orioles have, but he was a rock last season, working between the rotation and the bullpen. He’s earned a right to show his stuff from opening day.
Then there’s Keegan Akin, whom Fangraphs picks to have a nice year: a 3.42 ERA, 0.9 WAR, and 10.2 K/9 rate. Akin was one of the bullpen’s finest last season, despite getting little attention.
“They’re deep on lefties in Bal’mur,” says Fangraphs. Nice as that is, we’ll see a lot more arms out of the ‘pen this season and keep tinkering around looking for bullpen stability, no matter what.