The amount the Orioles offered was recently reported by MASN’s Roch Kubatko: Four years, $180 million.
In the days and weeks after Corbin Burnes signed his six-year, $210 million contract with the Diamondbacks, there was a variety of conflicting reports about just how involved the Orioles were in the process. Were they serious, competitive bidders? Were they engaged to the end? Reporting and statements from Burnes offered some contradictory suggestions without anyone ever putting numbers on whatever offer the Orioles made. MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported last night, with other local reporters confirming, that the Orioles went to a bid of four years, $180 million to sign Burnes.
That’s a stunning amount of money from what has otherwise been a conservative and largely risk-averse front office when it comes to making free agent signings, particularly where pitchers are involved. It’s a $45 million average annual value over the reported four years. Ultimately, this gets the Orioles no farther than the “We tried!” tracker, diligently maintained at FanGraphs. Or actually it doesn’t even get them on that tracker because this report didn’t come out during the offseason.
Connected to this report, Burnes spoke to the Orioles reporters who are out in Arizona for this series and offered probably his clearest statement yet that he was always planning to sign the biggest contract he could get with the Diamondbacks, who are closest to where he has made his home:
Now, I can’t guarantee I would have (stayed in Baltimore) had (the Orioles added years/money) just because … with us living here, if (the Diamondbacks) were going to be serious and have a fair offer, then this is where we were going to be.
MLB Trade Rumors noted that Burnes indicated the Orioles remained engaged until the last few days before he signed. Burnes was reported to have an agreement on December 27 of last year. That’s after the Orioles had signed Tomoyuki Sugano but before they signed Charlie Morton.
It’s fair to wonder whether the Orioles missed out on any domestic pitching acquisition opportunities because of being focused on retaining Burnes or bust. The other top-end starting pitchers, Blake Snell and Max Fried, had signed by early December. A more mid-range addition who I thought might have been a good choice for the O’s, Nathan Eovaldi, was also off the board by then. On the trade market, Garrett Crochet was shipped to the Red Sox on December 11.
Having thought about it, I feel that this is unlikely that the Orioles were betting everything on luring Burnes back. The O’s knew better than anybody that Burnes is a weird guy who was disappearing back to Arizona whenever he could between starts much more than was ever being publicly reported at the time. There must have been a sense in the front office that they’d just be driving up the bidding for the Diamondbacks.
In the last few seasons, the figure for dollars per WAR added has been roughly $8 million. The offer that the Orioles made to Burnes pegged him as roughly a 5.5-win player over each season of the contract. That’s a lot. It’s unknown whether there were deferrals in the offer, which would change this math by altering the present value. The Diamondbacks deal has $64 million deferred, per Cot’s Contracts.
Deferrals or not, it’s a remarkable offer considering that Burnes has not been that player except for in the 2021 season where he won the NL Cy Young. Arizona also had an opt-out following 2026, which the Orioles apparently did not. It seems doubtful that Burnes will opt out of the final 4/150 of the deal, but still, he has the choice available to him.
The Orioles thought it was worth going extra for a former ace who has still continued as a durable top-of-the-rotation pitcher. This is much more money than I would have thought they’d have been willing to offer, either in total or on a per-year basis. Nonetheless, there are no points awarded for being in the respectable ballpark while not signing a guy.
After Burnes signed elsewhere, the Orioles pivoted by splashing $15 million at 41-year-old Charlie Morton. They spent $10 million on veteran reliever Andrew Kittredge. Late in spring training, they reunited with another old guy, Kyle Gibson, for about $5 million.
The Orioles did not choose to try to bolster the rotation with a trade, nor did they ultimately make any signing that goes beyond the 2025 season. It seemed as though the O’s were content to roll with a top of the rotation of Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez, counting on Eflin to continue his post-trade 2024 performance and Rodriguez to live up to the potential he showed as a prospect. Rodriguez hit the injured list before the season even began and Eflin will join him there later today. If this was the strategy, it’s looking like a failure.
From a second-guessing standpoint, I think it’s fair to wonder if the Orioles should have been willing to end up in some kind of middle ground between “offer massive, possibly irresponsible money to keep Burnes” and “sign a bunch of old guys to one-year contracts.” The mid-ranged starting pitchers available to the O’s as the calendar turned to 2025, along with the contracts they ultimately received:
- Jack Flaherty (two years, $35 million to Tigers)
- Sean Manaea (three years, $75 million to Mets)
- Nick Pivetta (four years, $55 million to Padres)
It’s April 9 of year one of these deals. The final word will not be written for some time. Still: Flaherty and Pivetta have pitched very well early on. Either Pivetta or Manaea would have cost the Orioles a draft pick, but we already know they were willing to give up a pick since signing Burnes would have meant they don’t get a bonus pick due to his leaving. It would be better to have either one of these guys as the #2 or #3 starter than Morton and Dean Kremer.
Manaea is on the injured list due to an oblique strain, apparently not scheduled to return until at least late May. Burnes has two bad starts under his belt as well, and ended up as the #5 Arizona starter because they didn’t manage his days of rest properly coming out of spring training. It’s weird. Back to the point, somebody is always going to end up on the wrong end of taking a risk. This cannot be an excuse to not take any risk at all, because doing too little is also a risk.
Beyond free agents, they could have tried to swing a trade. It may turn out that this offseason was the best chance for the Orioles to get value out of prospect Coby Mayo. That could also be true of older, no-longer-prospect Heston Kjerstad. Fans will never know what kind of deals were discussed by the O’s, who was quietly made available for the right price and what those other teams considered the right price would be.
All we can know is that the Orioles rotation looked shaky heading into spring training and pretty much nothing has happened since then to change that feeling. If it doesn’t work out, there’s only Mike Elias to blame.