A Royals fan offers his perspective on the O’s-Royals wild card matchup.
Over the course of a 162 game season with our favorite baseball team, it’s easy to be familiar with the strengths and occasionally maddening weaknesses that have played out for the Orioles all season. It’s not as easy to get a handle on a team like the Royals, who the O’s will now face in a best-of-three wild card round, when we’ve only had six games of experience against them this season – and all six of those games happened in April, when things were a lot different for both the O’s and the Royals.
To get some thoughts on that team from someone who’s been following them all year the same as we have with the Orioles, I asked my counterpart at the SB Nation Royals site, Max Rieper of Royals Review, a few questions ahead of the series. Thank you to Max for taking the time to give us some insight. Here’s what he had to say:
The Royals have ended up being one of the surprise teams in the league this season. What were you expecting from them before the season began? What big positive developments surprised you?
Max: With the free agent investments made in the pitching staff, I think most fans were expecting a significant improvement for the Royals. But even a 75-win season would have represented a huge 19-game improvement. This has exceeded the expectations of even the most optimistic fans.
The biggest surprise has been just how good the starting rotation has been. We could see signs last year that Cole Ragans could become a dominant ace, but injury concerns and a lack of a track record still made many skeptical he could do it for an entire season, yet he was one of the most dominant left handers in the game this year. Most felt that signing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha would provide some stability, but few had any idea Lugo would become an All-Star with a career season at age 34 or that Wacha would have his best season by rWAR at age 32.
The enigmatic Brady Singer even bounced back from a horribly disappointing season last year and seemed to learn a lot about pitching from his veteran teammates. A lot of credit should go to pitching coach Brian Sweeney, who has integrated analytics into pitching development, something that was long overdue in the organization.
Who are a couple of Royals players who you think Orioles fans might not know who were important parts of the team’s success? What roles did they fill?
Max: Lugo has been around for awhile, but this is just his second year as a starting pitcher, and he blossomed. He has a deep arsenal of eight or nine pitches that he throws with excellent command. He went six or more innings in 25 of his 33 starts, and tied Framber Valdez for the MLB lead with ten starts of 7+ innings and one run or less allowed. There was some worry that he might wear down over the season, having not been used to starting. But he finished with a 2.08 ERA over his last six starts and was second in all of baseball in innings pitched.
Lucas Erceg is a former third baseman who converted to pitching with the A’s and rose to become one of their best relievers. The Royals acquired him mid-season to stabilize a shaky bullpen and he immediately became their best shut down arm. He gives them swing-and-miss stuff they sorely needed in their pen with a fastball in the upper-90s. Matt Quatraro is not afraid to use him before the ninth in key situations, so expect him in more of a fireman role than a traditional closer.
What area do you think the Royals match up well against the Orioles?
Max: The short series really plays well into the Royals’ pitching staff. Only the Braves, Phillies, and Royals can boast three starters with 20+ starts and 3+ rWAR. The short series also allows them to throw starters Brady Singer and Alec Marsh to their bullpen, where they could be much more effective than they were as starters. That should give the Royals greater depth to their thin bullpen and allow them to paper over some of those holes and avoid the weak spots.
The Royals have always been a running team, and this year is no exception. They’re the first team since the 2012 Brewers to have three 30+ stolen base players – Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., and pinch-runner extraordinaire Dairon Blanco. The Royals don’t have many thumpers in the lineup, so they’ll have to rely on small ball and making things happen on the bases.
What area do you think it’s the Orioles who have the edge over the Royals?
Max: The Orioles have the decided offensive advantage this series. The Royals slumped badly in September following the loss of first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino due to a broken thumb, but there are whispers he could return for this Wild Card series. Even with Pasquantino back, the Royals have precious few home runs threats, while the Orioles can hurt you up and down the lineup. The Orioles also have post-season experience, having played in October last year, while the Royals are still largely a young and inexperienced team that may have a “just happy to be here” vibe.
What is your prediction for the outcome of the series?
Max: In a short three-game series, anything can happen. The strong Royals starting pitching gives me hope they can keep the Orioles bats in check and keep games low scoring into the late innings. When the Royals offense was clicking, they were making things happen with big innings late in games.
The Orioles have had some bullpen issues in September, while the Royals shaky bullpen had its best month to end the year. Bobby Witt Jr. told reporters “we didn’t come this far just to get this far”, so I’ll be a homer and predict Bobby wills the Royals to a three-game upset and continue their surprise turnaround season.
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Thanks again to Max for taking the time to share some up close thoughts about the Royals. I hope the series turns out in such a way that I will be posting another article to Camden Chat on Friday where I’ve gotten thoughts on the Yankees from Pinstripe Alley.