Are you confident, or are you worried about what’s to come?
After what happened with the Orioles last year and through the first couple of months of this season, it’s almost kind of disappointing to see the O’s “only” making the postseason as a wild card team. Here they are all the same, with back-to-back postseasons for the first time since 1996-1997 and back-to-back 90+ win season for the first time since 1982-1983. Now it’s time to see what they can do in the postseason. Hopefully it turns out better than last year’s postseason.
Before this season began, Camden Chat staff as well as a number of our readers made predictions about what would happen this year. Our writers were split between those who were optimistic that the team would have a record with a good chance of repeating as AL East champions and those who expected something closer to this. We’re taking a crack at things again for the Wild Card round and as many rounds as the Orioles give us this October.
I polled CC’s staff on the following. You can let us know your own thoughts in the comments below:
- One thing that makes you confident about the series
- One thing about the Royals that makes you nervous
- An Oriole who needs to have a good series for the team to win
- Your “Orioles Magic” semi-surprise contributor
- Who wins and in how many games
The thing that makes you confident
Tyler: Home field advantage feels pretty important. Kansas City’s offense has not been as productive on the road this year, and their biggest bats are right-handed, so Walltimore could help in that regard.
Alex: Baltimore’s offense appears to have found its mojo. The bullpen may not have the horses for a pair of one-run victories, but this healthy lineup can post crooked numbers. A strong performance at the plate could help offset any shortcomings on the mound.
Andrea: If last year’s 101-win team lacked battle-testing through adversity, you can’t say the same about this team, which lost, then found itself down the stretch. Also they’re healthy and the offense is heating up!
John: The state of the Orioles offense over the last week. Since Ramón Urías and Jordan Westburg returned from injury, the Orioles are averaging 5.7 runs and are 5-2 in that stretch. Kansas City has two great offensive players in Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez, but overall, they aren’t a great offensive team. The depth of a fully healthy Orioles lineup should be a major advantage for Baltimore.
Stacey: Despite the frustrating performance over the second half of the season, the Orioles offense is more well rounded and better prepared than the Royals offense. Witt has performed like a superstar and Perez is always trouble, but after that it drops off quickly for the Royals. Meanwhile, the Orioles offense has been on the upswing since the return of Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, andUrías and they seem to be peaking at the right time. They are more than capable of defeating an inferior, third-place team whose W-L stats are padded with 13 games against the White Sox.
Paul: The Orioles have been firing on all cylinders since they got their key contributors back from the IL last week, especially on offense. This looks like a completely different lineup with Mountcastle, Urías, and especially Westburg back in the mix. That right-handed power is going to be pivotal in the opener against lefty Ragans (who, by the way, the O’s crushed for seven runs in 1.2 innings when they faced him in April). It seems like the lineup is gelling at the right time.
Mark: One thing the Orioles have right now that they didn’t have a year ago is a top of the rotation with starting pitchers who’ve experienced the pressure of playoff baseball before. Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin have been in this position and hopefully they will be better equipped than the 2023 O’s were to put together good outings and get this short series in the bag. Just don’t look at how those guys actually pitched in last year’s postseason, OK?
The thing that makes you nervous
Mark: I don’t feel good about the fact that the Royals are potentially perfectly calibrated to neutralize the biggest Orioles strength. The Royals gave up the fewest home runs of any American League team, while the O’s, as we know, rely on the home run to power their offense. This isn’t entirely fueled by their home park, either, as they allowed just 75 dingers on the road compared to 71 at home.
Paul: The memory of the 2014 ALCS will haunt me forever. The Orioles were clearly a much better team than the Royals that year, but in a short series, that doesn’t always matter. The Royals got hot at the right time and every single break and bounce seemed to go their way as they swept away one of the best O’s teams of my lifetime. I’m worried that history will repeat itself this year, when the O’s are the more talented team on paper but now face an even shorter series and less margin for error than they did in 2014. I can’t deal with that again.
Stacey: The one-two punch ofRagans and Seth Lugo is pretty intimidating, even if I still can’t wrap my head around the idea of Lugo being as good as he’s been this year. In a short series, those two pitchers could be the difference if the O’s offense can’t figure them out. Logically I think that Corbin Burnes + Zach Eflin is not demonstrably worse than Ragans + Lugo, but my PTSD from 2014, when the Orioles were also the better team, won’t allow me to stop being convinced that Ragans and Lugo will shut them down.
John: Bobby Witt Jr.. We all love Gunnar Henderson, but Witt was the best shortstop in baseball this year after leading the MLB in batting average, putting up a 30-30 season and playing excellent defense. There’s also the subplot of the Orioles passing on Witt to take Adley Rutschman at the top of the 2019 draft. I think both franchises and players are happy with how it all played out, but it may give Witt the chip on his shoulder he needs to want to dominate the O’s in this series.
Andrea: The Orioles won the season series against Kansas City, four games to two, but only outscored them 29-27.
Alex: Bobby Witt’s son. The 24-year-old is one of the best players in baseball, and he can impact the game in a number of ways. Spare me the 2019 re-draft talk though.
Tyler: The Royals’ top two starters are really, really good. They might both finish in the top five of Cy Young voting. In a best-of-three series, that could be enough to win.
The Oriole who needs to have a good series
Tyler: Adley Rutschman. When his bat is going, the Orioles offense is so much deeper. They need that contribution to score when home runs are tougher to come by. But his glove is crucial too. He has not seemed as crisp behind the plate recently. They need him locked in.
Mark: You know what? James McCann. The veteran has been Burnes’s personal catcher for most of the season and that probably means he’s going to be in the lineup for game 1. McCann just OPSed 1.087 across 10 games played in the month of September and if he can contribute a big hit or two from the bottom of the lineup in the series opener, I think that will put the Orioles in a good position to take this thing and move on.
Paul: Yennier Cano. The 2023 All-Star has been the Orioles’ most-used high-leverage righty this season, and for the most part he’s done the job, but he suffered some of his worst outings in the last two weeks of the regular season. Cano is the guy who’s going to be called upon to face the likes of Witt and Perez in the late innings, and if he’s at anything less than his best, the O’s are in trouble. As Cano goes, so goes the rest of the Orioles’ bullpen.
Stacey: Jordan Westburg. The return of Westburg (along with Mountcastle and Urías) coincided with the bounceback of the Orioles offense over the last week. Everyone kept saying you just gotta wait for these guys to return and seemingly it’s been right. Westburg in particular feels like a steady, calming force for this team, and a solid performance by him this series could keep the offense humming.
John: Zach Eflin. If Eflin brings his best stuff in Game 2, the Orioles should be able to end this series without needing a Game 3. If he is less than his best, the series starts to tilt more and more in Kansas City’s favor.
Andrea: It’s easy to say Game 1 starter Corbin Burnes, so maybe I’ll just say. . . Corbin Burnes.
Alex: Seranthony Domínguez feels like an obvious answer, but there are several question marks in that bullpen. The Orioles need Yennier Cano to bring his A-game in high-leverage situations.
The “Orioles Magic” player of the series
Alex: Ramón Urías
Tyler: Ryan Mountcastle
Mark: Danny Coulombe
Stacey: Seranthony Domínguez
Paul: Emmanuel Rivera
John: Ramón Urías
Andrea: Heston Kjerstad
Prediction
Tyler: Orioles in 2!
Andrea: Orioles in 3
Alex: Orioles in 2
Mark: Orioles in 3
Paul: Royals in 3
Stacey: Orioles in 2
John: Orioles in 2
**
So, that’s what we think. How about you? Are you confident about the next two or three games, or do you have that 2014 ALCS anxiety too? Here’s a poll to get you started, and drop into the comments below with any more in-depth answers.