The lanky right hander way outpitched his own career totals in nine starts for Baltimore.
In recent years, the O’s have been rather conservative at the trade deadline, and in retrospect, you feel like they could have, should have gone bigger. In 2023, their midseason haul was highlighted by an ineffective Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami. In 2024, they chose quantity over quality, trading for outfielders Eloy Jiménez and Austin Slater and pitchers Zach Eflin, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, and Trevor Rogers.
Of those six, just half—Slater, Domínguez and Eflin—posted a positive WAR for the Orioles, and Slater and Domínguez just barely. Perhaps a lack of serious ambition at the deadline.
Zach Eflin, on the other hand, was a revelation. Over nine starts totaling 55.1 innings, the 6’6” righty went 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.120 WHIP. He was stingy, striking out 47 and issuing just 11 walks.
For Eflin, this was unexpected dominance. The righty had spent seven seasons with Philly (36-45, 4.49 ERA, 4.36 FIP) and two with Tampa Bay (21-15, 3.72 ERA, 3.26 ERA). To go by ERA+, which conveys a sense of a player’s excellence relative to the rest of the league (100 being average), Eflin was slightly below-average as a Phil (95 ERA+), slightly above-average as a Ray (111 ERA+) and very good as an Oriole (145 ERA+).
After getting sent to the Orioles in late July, Eflin’s impact was immediate, as he went six innings or better in each of his first four starts, never allowing more than three runs. That included a very mean reunion with his old team Tampa Bay on August 9, a seven-inning shutout outing in the Trop.
Then, in late August, seeming disaster: with the O’s staff already down half a dozen arms, Eflin was subbed out of a start, and Cole Irvin went in instead. It was reported as shoulder soreness, which, given the O’s miserable injury this season, could have turned out way worse.
Instead, Eflin was activated off the IL on September 1, and immediately delivered one of his signature outings of the year, a brilliant seven-inning, one-run performance at Coors Field that buoyed his team in the Wild Card race. He sliced through the Rockies lineup that day, throwing five perfect innings on just 49 pitches and finished with nine strikeouts.
Was it all luck? Some of it, let’s admit. Eflin’s fielding-independent average this season was 3.94, over a run higher than his ERA. Prior to the trade, the numbers were switched: Eflin had a 4.09 ERA, worse than his 3.68 FIP. Credit Orioles defenders, who helped make their midseason acquisition look good in the orange-and-black.
Was it coaching? The Orioles fiddled a bit with Eflin’s pitch mix, his cutter increasing in frequency, along with his curveball, and phasing out his sinker and four-seamer. This change was very deliberate—hey, when you have Corbin Burnes pumping cutters to devastate right-handed hitters, why not see if the pitch can work for others? According to Pitcherlist, that’s just what the O’s did, encouraging Eflin to work it in against lefties and righties alike. The results were great, with just a .214 batting average against.
Eflin delivered incredible value for this team. He was the O’s third-most valuable pitcher last season after Corbin Burnes and Albert Suárez, doing so in fewer than ten starts. He’ll be back in the rotation next season, with one year left on a three-year, $40 million deal.
Will the 30-year-old probably regress to his career 4.17 ERA or somewhere like that? It seems likely. But that shouldn’t take away anything from what’s already turned out to be a sneaky-brilliant signing for this team—a trade deadline move worthy of a team trying to push in all their chips.
Previous 2024 player reviews: Keegan Akin, Cionel Pérez, Cole Irvin, Ryan O’Hearn, Craig Kimbrel, Cade Povich, midseason position player acquisitions, Jackson Holliday, injured starting pitchers, James McCann, midseason pitching acquisitions, Jorge Mateo, Yennier Cano, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Jacob Webb, Grayson Rodriguez, Ramón Urías, Danny Coulombe, Adley Rutschman
Tomorrow: Cedric Mullins