The O’s have two possible opponents in next week’s opening round of the postseason. Which is a better matchup?
Hey, have you heard the good news? The Orioles are headed to the playoffs. Woo!
You’ve probably heard the bad news, too. The Orioles won’t be winning the AL East. The Yankees clinched the division with their blowout win over the Birds last night.
So it’s official: the Orioles will be a wild card team. They’ll almost certainly claim the first wild card, though that’s not a done deal yet; they’re three games ahead of the Tigers — who hold the tiebreaker — with three games to play. The O’s just need to avoid getting swept by the Twins this weekend, or hope that the Tigers lose a game in their final series. Considering that Detroit is facing the White Sox, the former is more likely. Assuming it happens, that would assure that Baltimore hosts every game of the best-of-three Wild Card Series.
What we don’t know yet is who their opponent will be. Detroit and Kansas City are currently tied for the second wild card spot, each with an 85-74 record. Whichever finishes with a better record will head to Baltimore; the other has a date with Houston. If they’re tied, the Royals hold the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series against the Tigers. The Royals, though, finish their season with a three-game series in rainy Atlanta, where the Braves are battling tooth and nail for an NL wild card spot. The Tigers, as mentioned, play the White Sox. I think I know how this is going to shake out.
But which of these two clubs should the Orioles be hoping to face in the Wild Card Series? Let’s break it down.
Pitching
Stellar pitching has been the key to both the Royals’ and Tigers’ surprise success this season. Detroit’s 3.60 team ERA ranks second-best in the AL; Kansas City’s 3.80 mark is sixth (the Orioles, at 3.95, are eighth). The Tigers have been especially superb in the second half with a league-leading 3.07 ERA, fueling their out-of-nowhere rise into playoff position.
The Royals have gotten it done thanks to a pair of key free agent signings last winter, veteran righties Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. Lugo, just two years removed from being a full-time reliever, has broken out with a dazzling, All-Star season at age 34, notching 16 wins, posting a sensational 3.03 ERA, and leading the league with 204.2 innings pitched. He’ll likely finish in the top 3 of the AL Cy Young vote. Wacha, meanwhile, has a 3.28 mark in 28 starts and gives K.C. a veteran with ample postseason experience.
Lugo and Wacha give the Royals a Fab Four in the rotation along with Cole Ragans and Brady Singer. Ragans has been a revelation since the Royals acquired him from Texas last June, posting an even 3.00 ERA and a sizzling 10.9 K/9 in his 44 career starts with Kansas City. He’s emerged as one of the most overpowering lefties in the game, fanning hitters at an elite level this season (a league-best 10.8 K/9). And the righty Singer, a former first round pick in 2018, has finally reached his potential this season after years of inconsistent performance in the majors. The Royals have more than enough quality starters for a best-of-three series.
The Tigers have achieved their pitching success in a very different way. Instead of using a regular quintet of starters, they’ve kept opponents guessing by employing a cadre of young, power arms who could pitch any inning from the first through the ninth. They use late-inning relievers as openers. They use starters as bulk relievers. In one series against the Orioles, Beau Brieske started two games in a row; the next weekend, he was pitching out of a ninth-inning jam. Lefty Tyler Holton notched a save against the Orioles, then started two games against them in the following series. A.J. Hinch’s creative use of the pitching staff makes it difficult for opposing managers to set their ideal lineup.
But of course there’s one Tigers hurler who could swing any short series in their favor: Tarik Skubal, the presumptive 2024 AL Cy Young winner, who currently holds the pitching triple crown by leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.39), and strikeouts (228). He strikes out 6.5 batters for every walk. He doesn’t give up homers. He’s got a sub-1.00 WHIP. There is simply nothing the 27-year-old lefty can’t do. He’s the pitcher no team wants to face in October.
Better matchup for the Orioles: Royals. Even with Kansas City’s impressive rotation, none of their starters are as scary as Skubal, who could dominate Game 1 and put the O’s on the brink of elimination right off the bat. Plus, the Royals’ bullpen is ripe for the picking: their mediocre 4.24 relief ERA is emblematic of a crew that doesn’t have any especially reliable set-up men ahead of closer Lucas Erceg.
Hitting
While the Tigers boast the superstar pitcher, it’s the Royals who employ a wunderkind on the hitting side. Bobby Witt Jr. would be the front-runner for AL MVP in a world where Aaron Judge didn’t exist. The 24-year-old shortstop, selected with the #2 overall pick behind Adley Rutschman in 2019, has emerged as one of the game’s greatest players in just his third year in the majors. His combination of both elite speed and power has led him to his second straight 30/30 season, and he’s poised to take home the AL batting title with a .332 average. His .981 OPS ranks third in the AL. He’s a gifted defender. Any time Witt is on the field, he’s a one-man wrecking crew.
Also dangerous in the Kansas City lineup is the grizzled veteran Salvador Perez, the only player remaining from the 2014 Royals upstarts who upset the favored Orioles in the ALCS. Perez, at 34 years old, has shown no signs of slowing down with his 27-homer, 103-RBI season. Beyond Witt and Perez, though, the Royals’ lineup is not particularly intimidating.
The Tigers feature a lineup with tons of potential — with eight hitters on their active roster who are 24 or younger — but few who have reached it so far. Their best hitters are designated hitter Kerry Carpenter, who missed half the season with injuries but has a .931 OPS, and outfielder Riley Greene, who leads the team with 24 homers and 73 RBIs. They also aren’t a particularly aggressive team on the bases, with just 76 stolen bases as a team this season. The Royals have three players who have stolen 30 or more.
Better matchup for the Orioles: Tigers. Both lineups have their holes, but only one of them has Witt. Orioles pitchers would probably rather take their chances with Detroit. The O’s held the Tigers to an average of three runs per game this season, as opposed to 4.5 runs per game for the Royals.
Vibes
And here we have the deciding factor. No team in baseball has been hotter for the last few weeks than the Tigers, who are a league-best 32-14 since August 6 and have shown no signs of slowing down. As the momentum builds, they look like a team that has the confidence to steamroll through the postseason even if they aren’t as talented on paper as some of their opponents.
Kansas City, on the other hand, has been in an extended funk in recent weeks. Starting Aug. 28, the Royals went 7-16 and very nearly collapsed their way out of playoff position until rebounding for a sweep of the Nationals this week. Prior to yesterday, they had gone seven straight games without scoring more than three runs.
With everything in mind, the better matchup for the Orioles is…the Royals, as much as it pains me to say it. Like every Orioles fan, I still have nightmares about that 2014 ALCS sweep in which the Royals won every game by just one or two runs, and every break seemed to go their way. I wouldn’t exactly be looking forward to another postseason battle against Kansas City. But given the choice between them or the red-hot Tigers, the O’s likely have a better chance of advancing against the Royals. What say you?