Now that the preseason is over, let’s break down how the Wizards did statistically
The preseason is over, and the numbers tell a simple story: the Washington Wizards are doomed. DOOMED, I say.
To “umm…actually” myself, that’s not exactly what the preseason numbers say. I mean, if they meant anything, that’s what they’d be saying, but in truth they don’t mean a lot. More than nothing, less than determinative.
In previous years, stat goobers like ESPN’s Kevin Pelton and 82games’ Roland Beech studied whether there was anything to learn from the NBA preseason. They each found some correlation between a team’s preseason performance and their subsequent regular season record.
Broadly speaking, the correlation was strongest with bad teams from the previous year — bottom dwellers who played well in the preseason tended to go on to make a significant regular season improvement. However, those studies were all from the days when NBA teams played eight preseason games. Nowadays, they play fewer.
The Wizards got five this year. Some teams got six, if they had matchups with the New Zealand Breakers or the Ratiopharm Ulm. Some teams played four games. A few played just three.
Something I learned today: league rules don’t require teams to play any preseason games. Teams are not permitted to play more than six. The scheduling is decentralized. Franchises negotiate directly with each other to select dates and locations for the games.
Anyway, the Wizards are finished with an up-and-down preseason, and there are numbers, so we might as well take a look.
In preseason competition, the Wizards were near the bottom in virtually the statistical categories that meaningfully measure team strength during the regular season and playoffs:
- Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 28th
- Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 29th
- Net Rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating): 29th
Not good.
As befits one of the league’s weakest preseason teams, very few Wizards players did much more than flash positives on a few plays. No one sustained excellence. Just three players cracked average in my Player Production Average metric, and two of them barely played. The team released one of them and will presumably sign him to the Capital City Go-Go.
Below are some thoughts, observations, and numbers from preseason:
- Kyshawn George got off to a promising start. His defensive effort was good, and while he’s not an eye-popping athlete, he showed enough to think he can play a major role someday. On offense, he was selective (15.2% usage rate) and efficient. Now, he’s not going to post a 68.3% efg in the regular season, but he looks like he’ll be at least a decent open shooter from day one.
- Alex Sarr made a passel of mistakes on defense that were exactly the type that a 19-year-old in his first real NBA action would make. He also made some defensive plays that were special. Offense was a mixed bag — 53.8% on threes…and 42.9% on twos. More worrisome to me were the fumbled passes, which were an issue for him in Australia last season.
- Jared Butler showed he has the makings of a solid backup guard. He shot well in preseason, led the team in total assists despite being just seventh in minutes. Now, he did commit 5.1 turnovers per 100 team possessions (second most on the team), but his assist-to-turnover was a solid 2.6-to-1.
- Corey Kispert shot well on twos, threes, and free throws and was second on the team in points per 100 team possessions still had a subpar offensive rating and a well-below average PPA. The meh ortg was due to scant offensive rebounds and high turnover numbers. The low PPA was due to the same issues he’s had throughout his career — very little non-scoring production.
- Bilal Coulibaly missed a couple of the games with a sprained finger the team said would not have kept him out of regular season games. I don’t want to read too much into his preseason performance, but his usage rate was only 14.7% (about the same as last season) and he committed a bunch of fouls. I’d still take the over on my PPA forecast for him, but I would have liked seeing more from him in the exhibition games.
- When Jordan Poole attacks quickly, he can be an effective scorer and playmaker. When he gets into “check out my bag of moves” mode, he gets sloppy, loses balance, and wastes possessions. That was true last season and again in the preseason.
- Johnny Davis had some nice moments, especially down the stretch in the fourth quarter of the finale against the New York Knicks. If he can cobble together some semblance of an offensive game, he could carve out an NBA role as a tough-minded defender.
- Tristan Vukcevich did nothing to show the team made a mistake to demote him from the NBA contract he had last season to a two-way deal this year.
- The one thing Bub Carrington did well was rebound, which is not typically what teams want from their guards. He plays hard and with confidence, even when things aren’t going well for him.
- Kyle Kuzma had a particularly bad preseason — a 26.6% usage rate and an offensive rating of 70. For context, league average last season was 115.3. He did it by shooting poorly from everywhere, grabbing just one offensive rebound in 115 minutes, and committing 6.4 turnovers per 100 team possessions. Bright side: Kuzma’s been a virtual metronome season to season, and there’s little reason to think the preseason was a fundamental change in form.
Preseason PPA Scores below…
- Richaun Holmes — 153
- Kyshawn George — 135
- Taylor Funk — 110
- Alex Sarr — 97
- Jared Butler — 94
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. — 82
- Anthony Gill — 68
- Corey Kispert — 67
- Bilal Coulibaly — 62
- Jordan Poole — 59
- Marvin Bagley III — 56
- Johnny Davis — 38
- Tristan Vukcevic — 35
- Justin Champagnie — 32
- Jonas Valanciunas — -7
- Bub Carrington — -25
- Kyle Kuzma — -25