Stats, analysis, commentary
Six games into a season expected to be characterized with lots of losing, the Washington Wizards are off to a 2-4 start and have performed a bit better than preseason expectations. They’ve suffered some stomp losses, and both wins came against the injury-riddled Atlanta Hawks.
To be clear, the Wizards are among the league’s weakest teams (even just looking at the first couple weeks of the season) and will be in contention for worst record. But their early season performance brings hope because 25-year-old Jordan Poole has played significantly better than he did last season and the franchise’s youngest players have each at least flashed major potential.
Another reason for optimism — head coach Brian Keefe and the team’s coaching staff has instituted a read-and-react offensive system that empowers players to make decisions on the fly. This is a great way to teach youngsters how to become high-quality NBA players, especially since it’s been paired with playing time and the opportunity to play through mistakes.
The defensive scheme also appears to be solid. Players are attempting to execute force rules (sending penetration to specific areas), trying to keep the ball out of the middle, and seeking to limit opponent at-rim attempts.
They’ve allowed the seventh fewest at-rim attempts, which is good. Not so good: they’re dead last in limiting opponent at-rim field goal percentage. Opponents are shooting 79.5% on those close-in attempts — average is 68.8%.
The focus on keeping opponents out of the paint has come at a cost: they’re allowing the third most corner threes, the 11th highest corner three percentage, and the sixth worst opponent three-point percentage.
While it’s too early in the season to draw any conclusions, let’s take a look at key performance indicators to see where the Wizards stand now, whether there are any indicators or trends pointing to future performance, and to establish some benchmarks for comparison as the season wears on.
- Strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin: 25th
- Offensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 24th
- Defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 25th
- Pace (possessions per 48 minutes): 2nd
No surprises here. The Wizards have been interested in pushing the pace the past couple seasons, and there’s good reasons to do it. Specifically, they’re young and athletic, and transition possessions tend to be more efficient. Plus, getting the ball across half court quickly can get the team into their actions faster, which can get them to multiple options. Per NBA tracking data, the Wizards have the sixth most transition possessions, and their efficiency has been slightly better than average.
Important caveat: while there are reasons to play fast, there’s very little correlation between offensive efficiency and pace. That’s because of volume. The Wizards are sixth in transition possessions and 76% of their possessions overall are in the half court. More transition possessions and higher efficiency in those possessions are good but no substitution for a good half court offense.
Let’s shift now to the Four Factors — the categories that define who wins and loses in basketball. These were codified by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver, who is author of the book “Basketball on Paper” as well as a just-released update (sequel?) “Basketball Beyond Paper.”
The factors apply to both ends of the floor.
Four Factors: Offense
- effective field goal percentage: 25th
- turnover percentage: 12th
- offensive rebound percentage: 25th
- free throws made / field goal attempts: 13th
Through the first six games, the Wizards have avoided turnovers and done a decent job of getting to the free throw line. They’ve also shot poorly and have been unable to corral their misses. The single most important factor: shooting from the field.
Four Factors: Defense
- efg: 23rd
- tov%: 21st
- defensive reb%: 28th
- dftm/dfga: 24th
On the defensive end, they’re not doing much to slow the opponent’s attack, which is not a surprise. They’ve been giving significant minutes to inexperienced youngsters who are undergoing on-the-job training. Some of the kids have performed reasonably well defensively (Bilal Coulibaly and Alex Sarr), one has been okay (Kyshawn George), and one has taken his lumps (Bub Carrington).
The rotation veterans have been little help. Corey Kispert continues to be a well below average defender, Jonas Valanciunas lacks the mobility to play anything but drop coverage, and that same lack of mobility hinders his ability to protect the rim. Kyle Kuzma was very bad defensively until he was sidelined with a groin injury.
The lone veteran bright spot on the defensive end is Poole, who’s been attentive and disruptive. What he’s shown so far this season is the best defense of his career. He leads the NBA in steals so far, and he’s among the league leaders in deflections.
Player Production Average
Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall production metric I put together. It rewards players for doing things that help a team win like making shots, playmaking, defending, and rebounding, and dings them for things that hurt the cause of winning like missing shots, committing turnovers, defending poorly and fouling.
Each factor is weighted based on regression analysis that determined how each category relates to winning. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.
Wizards scores for the season are below. Here’s a look at top performers so far this season:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G, Oklahoma City Thunder: 291
- Stephen Curry, G, Golden State Warriors: 273
- Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets: 251
- Jayson Tatum, F, Boston Celtics: 234
- Chet Holmgren, C, Oklahoma City Thunder: 222
And for the Wizards:
Rotation
- Jordan Poole — 182
- Bilal Coulibaly — 136
- Jonas Valanciunas — 108
- Alex Sarr — 95
- Bub Carrington — 83
- Kyle Kuzma — 42
- Corey Kispert — 28
- Kyshawn George — 22
Non-Rotation
- Patrick Baldwin Jr. — 119
- Jared Butler — 117
- Marvin Bagley III — 73
- Johnny Davis — 49
- Anthony Gill — 0
- Justin Champagnie — 0
- Richaun Holmes — -65
A few observations/thoughts:
- This is the best stretch of basketball Poole has played, possibly in his career (I haven’t run performance ekgs on every season of his career). I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t suggest a tap of the brakes on concluding he’s made a leap. A few cautions in the numbers: his two point percentage is low (44.4%) and his three-point percentage WAY high. His turnovers have been creeping up (4.5 per 100 possessions), and he’s fouling a lot (4.7 per 100 possessions).
- Coulibaly has made a significant leap forward from his rookie year. His usage is ticking up (17.9% so far), and while the shooting will probably drop a bit, the defense is legit. What he did to Trae Young was impressive.
- Don’t be tempted to be even a little disappointed with Sarr’s performance so far. He needs a ton of work on his game and his body, but what he’s doing as a 19-year-old rookie is impressive. The defense is good and likely to improve significantly. That 95 PPA is good for a teenage rookie — when I ran a career forecast for a player his age starting like this, the anticipated peak was elite. This is good.
- Carrington’s defense has been rough, which is unsurprising considering he wasn’t much good at that end in college, and he just turned 19. His 83 PPA is very good for someone of his age and inexperience. He’s impressed with his decision-making (3.6 assists for every turnover) and much-needed rebounding from the backcourt. He’s also been competitive and confident, which are also traits this franchise has needed.
- George is the final youngster getting significant minutes, and his low PPA score reflects the awful long-range shooting start — just 2-22 to start. Shooting was expected to be a relative strength, but through six games it’s been his all-around contributions — rebounding, some playmaking, and good work on defense.
Understand, “good for a teenager” or “good for a rookie” isn’t the same thing as “good” in the NBA. But they have to start somewhere, and virtually every successful NBA player has to endure some growing pains as rookies. It’s great that they’re getting so many minutes. These are opportunities to make mistakes, learn, and try again. The more mistakes they can make now, the more that can be corrected, and the faster the learning curve.
This team is built to lose, and that’s fine because it’s in service to rebuilding the roster with high draft picks and growing into a perennial contender over the next few years. What we’ve seen so far this season is both a long ways from “good” and encouraging.