Stats, analysis, commentary
A day after swapping players they didn’t want and older guys with more past than future for assets to help in the rebuild, the shorthanded Washington Wizards lost 134-124 to snap their three-game winning streak.
The game itself was high-scoring and entertaining. The Cleveland Cavaliers have one of the best offenses in NBA history, and it came in handy on a night when the Wizards shot well, grabbed offensive rebounds and avoided turnovers.
The Wizards hung tough for a competitive three quarters. Washington led by as much as eight in the first quarter. In the first three quarters, there were 19 lead changes and 17 ties. Donovan Mitchell hit a shot with three seconds left in the third for the final lead change, and the Cavaliers offense went into high gear in the fourth.
The big story, of course, was what the Wizards did at the trade deadline.
OUTGOING
- Kyle Kuzma
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Marvin Bagley III
- Johnny Davis
- Jared Butler
- Patrick Baldwin Jr.
- some combination of second round picks
INCOMING
- Marcus Smart
- Colby Jones
- Alex Len
- Khris Middleton
- AJ Johnson
- draft rights to Mathias Lessort
- Reggie Jackson (waived)
- Sidy Cissoko (waived)
- Memphis Grizzlies 2025 first-round pick (protected)
- Philadelphia 76ers 2026 first-round pick (protected)
- Milwaukee Bucks 2028 first-round pick swap
- some combination of second round picks
That’s solid work from the front office. They didn’t want Bagley, Davis, Butler or Baldwin to be part of the rebuild. Valanciunas is nearly 33 and has much more of a past than a future in the NBA. Kuzma is an average-ish 29-year-old player who’s been having the worst season of his career. They turned all that into highly-paid veterans with contracts that expire after next season, some first round draft assets, and a couple young players with potential.
The incoming youngsters (Johnson and Jones) have potential, but neither could find playing times on teams with postseason aspirations. Both should get playing time in Washington. Johnson, an athletic guard who just turned 20, got eight minutes last night against Cleveland. Jones earned a mid-first grade in YODA. Here’s what I wrote about him before the 2023 draft:
Colby Jones, W, Xavier — Interesting prospect who could end up being a bargain if mock drafts are accurate and he winds up in the late first or early second round. He finished well inside (56.3% on twos), shot 37.8% from three, and was a strong playmaker (5.2 assists per 40 with a 1.9 to 1 ast/tov ratio). Of potential concern: just 65.3% from the free throw line, and the overall numbers aren’t mind-blowing for a 20-year old junior. Consensus Rank: 30
So there’s hope.
Back to last night’s game…
Bright Spots for the Wizards
- Jordan Poole scored a career-high 45 points. He was 16-32 from the floor, 4-17 from three, and 9-11 from the free throw line. He also tallied 5 assists and 3 turnovers. That works out to a 127 offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) on 41.2% usage.
- Kyshawn George hit 4-6 from three-point range to notch 17 points on just 11 shots.
- Freed from the deep bench, Richaun Holmes continued his recent streak of productive games — last night finishing with 12 points and 12 rebounds (6 offensive board). The defense wasn’t good when he was out there, which is true for literally everyone on the Wizards roster.
- Bilal Coulibaly scored 12 points in a stellar first quarter in which he shot 5-6 from the floor and 2-2 from three-point range. He hit just 1-6 the rest of the way, and his aggressiveness waned as the game wore on — perhaps because he played 42 minutes.
- The Wizards had a strong offensive game against the NBA’s number eight defense coming into the night. It probably won’t be enough to get Washington out of 30th in offensive rating, but it was still good to see.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for an average NBA game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.