Stats, commentary, analysis.
For the second time this season, the Washington Wizards have a two-game winning streak. The injuries and illness curse that has wreaked havoc on the franchise for decades hit opponents for once. The Minnesota Timberwolves were missing their top four offensive players. Last night, the Charlotte Hornets were missing LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Tre Mann, Grant Williams, Josh Okogie, Cody Martin, and Tijane Saluan.
Not all those guys matter much, but Ball and Miller are major. With those two on the floor, the Hornets scored 116.0 points per possession.
That’s not to make excuses for Washington’s opponents or diminish the Wizards’ victories. Washington can only play the team in front of them, and for the past two games, they outplayed their opponents.
The story of this one was an explosive second quarter in which the Wizards went on a 32-8 run and “won” the period, 46-25. Corey Kispert erupted with 18 points on 6-8 shooting in the quarter, including 4-6 from three. Bilal Coulibaly chipped in 13 points in nine second quarter minutes.
Up 23 at the half, the Wizards did some slacking off in the third quarter, and the Hornets cut their lead to as little as five points. Washington responded with a run, pushed their lead to as much as 19 in the fourth quarter, and coasted home with a 10-point win.
Bright Spots for the Wizards
- Corey Kispert shot the proverbial leather off the ball in the first and finished the game with 25 points on 13 shots. His offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was 169 on 22.3% usage, which is outstanding. On defense, he got roasted a few times, but his team defense was good, he got himself to the right spots in help situations, which helped make the unit effective on defense when he was in the game.
- Bilal Coulibaly was efficient and effective on offense — 26 points (one off his career high) on 16 field goal attempts. He hit 4-8 from three. He also had 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and zero turnovers. Two things I’d like to see from him: stay aggressive even when on the floor with veterans, and pull the trigger on open threes when opposing defenders go under screens.
- Malcolm Brogdon played an excellent trade-bait game. He had some quick straight-line drives, got to the free throw line (8-10), grabbed 4 rebounds, and had 7 assists to just 2 turnovers.
- Jonas Valanciunas mashed inside against a young and slender Hornets team. He finished with 14 points, 17 rebounds (8 on the offensive glass), and 4 assists. The defense? It was very bad when he was on the floor, in part because he offers little rim protection. (Do NOT share that information with contending teams that could us a center. Valanciunas is perfect for them.)
- Turnovers have been a problem for the Wizards all season, but not last night. Against the Hornets, Washington committed just 10.
- The Wizards were +26 in 12 minutes with Justin Champagnie on the floor.
- Kudos to Jordan Poole, who was questionable for this one with an illness. I’ve quibbled with aspects of his play (and he did not play well against the Hornets), but he plays with injuries and illness that sideline many of his peers around the league.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics, including the Player Production Average (PPA) Game Score. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
Game Score (GmSC) converts individual production into points on the scoreboard. The scale is the same as points and reflects each player’s total contributions for an average NBA game. The lowest possible GmSC is zero.
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.