Who will start for Washington this season?
Tyus Jones, Jordan Poole, Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma and Daniel Gafford. That was Washington’s starting five last October when the squad lost its opener to Indiana, 143-120.
Since then, Gafford was dealt to Dallas, Avdija got traded to Portland and Jones signed with Phoenix. The two holdovers — Kuzma and Poole — are locks to start once again.
Where it gets interesting is how Brian Keefe rounds out the final three players in his starting unit — specifically the shooting guard and small forward positions.
Starter Locks: PG, PF, C
As mentioned above, it’s safe to guarantee that both Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole will start come October. Kuzma will occupy the power forward spot as a stretch-four that adds size and shooting to the Wizards’ starting five.
As for Poole, comparing his PG-stats to his SG-stats is all that’s needed to determine where he’ll play in 2024.
In Poole’s first three months playing SG in Wes Unseld Jr’s system, he averaged 16.5 points per game on 31% 3pt. Now, compare that his 20.8 points per game on 36% 3pt playing PG for Brian Keefe, and the difference is night and day.
While newly acquired point guard Malcolm Brogdon is a possible backcourt mate, Poole’s production as the lead guard to end last season should propel him to a similar role in 2024-25.
As for the big man, Washington inked Jonas Valanciunas to a three year, $30 million contract this past offseason — a bargain of a contract for one of the league’s most consistent centers.
Valanciunas has come off the bench just once since 2019. In Memphis and New Orleans, JV manned the paint, bringing physicality and touch down low.
His ability to space the floor adds an element to the starting five that it lacks with Holmes and Bagley. His size prohibits him from getting bullied by bigger, stronger centers. His veteran presence will be key for Washington’s younger players.
All these elements are why Valanciunas is a lock to be the Wizards’ starting center on opening night.
Shooting Guard
There’s three candidates for this spot, and one makes more sense as a small forward. Those options are Malcolm Brogdon, Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly.
Let’s start by eliminating Bilal. This is a mini spoiler for the next section about the starting small forward spot, but I believe Coulibaly is better suited for that role. The reason: I’d simply prefer more consistent outside shooting from my two-guard.
That leaves Kispert and Brogdon. A 25-year-old sharpshooter entering a contract year and a 31-year-old two-way guard coming off an injury-riddled season. A Wizards first-round pick in 2021 and a former Rookie of the Year expected to be engrossed in trade rumors.
The argument seems simple: Kispert’s shooting versus Brogdon’s defense. However, it’s not that easy.
While many view Kispert as a better shooter, Brogdon (41.2%) shot better from three last season than Kispert (38.3%). Now, that’s not to say that Brogdon is the better shooter simply because he was slightly more efficient from deep last season. But, what it does say is that Kispert’s shooting ability — the trait most Wizards fans who prefer to start him would list as their best reasoning — isn’t much, if at all, better than Brogdon’s.
On the other side of the ball, Brogdon clears Kispert.
In terms of defensive rating, the 2023-24 league average was 116.1. Kispert had a defensive rating of 122.8 compared to Brogdon’s 119.8 — both numbers worse than average. However, when you consider Brogdon’s career defensive rating is 113.0, it can mean one of two things: Either the 31-year-old veteran has lost a step defensively, or the Blazers’ 21st-ranked defense made him look bad.
No matter which reason you choose to believe, Brogdon is the better, more versatile defender. That, coupled with shooting nearly 3% better from deep than Kispert last season is enough for me to name Brogdon the starting SG.
Small Forward
As I mentioned above, the small forward debate shouldn’t really be a debate.
If the Wizards start Poole at PG, Brogdon at SG and Kuzma at PF, the lineup lacks a true lockdown defender.
Enter Bilal Coulibaly.
At just 19 years old, Coulibaly quickly took the assignment of defending the opposing team’s best or second-best player. With Deni Avdija off to Portland, it’s Coulibaly’s time to step up and become Washington’s defensive stopper.
If the Wizards opt for Kispert, the unit is too weak defensively. If they place Kuzma at SF and Sarr at PF, the unit lacks offense and Kuzma is the primary defender.
So, that leaves Coulibaly, who I believe perfectly meshes the group together. While his shooting faded as last season progressed, he showed during The Olympics that he’s a capable shotmaker.
Don’t get it twisted. Coulibaly’s defense is the reason he’s in this group. However, his offense shouldn’t be disregarded because nobody knows the type of leap he’s made since fracturing his wrist in March.
Let us know who you think should start on opening night in the comments below!