It’s time for what’s become an annual summer tradition in these parts: the Wizards All-Doppelganger Team. For those who are new to Bullets Forever, each offseason, I run prominent members of the Washington Wizards through what I call my Statistical Doppelganger Machine.
The machine compares a player’s season to every other NBA player season since 1977-78, by some weird coincidence, the only year Washington won a championship. The process compares players across an array of publicly available stats (pace adjusted), age, and my proprietary PPA metric.
(PPA (short for Player Production Average) is my overall production metric, which measures players against their peers. PPA is pace neutral and accounts for defense and role. I normally include a spiel about what the scores mean, but they’re irrelevant for this article and won’t be on the test.)
The machine produces a list of comparable players — guys who performed similarly both in style of production and overall impact within the context of their own time. While position is not part of the algorithm, most times the comps are from the same position group.
The rise of three-point shooting has also created an era divide. Players from the past decade or so tend to produce comps from within the past decade or so. There are exceptions, though — one of which will be the first player on the list below.
Without further ado here’s what the Wizards roster for the upcoming season would look like if it was comprised completely of each player’s “most similar,” according to the doppelganger machine.
2024-25 Washington Wizards All-Doppelganger Team
Probable Starters
G: Malcolm Brogdon — Dell Curry, Charlotte Hornets, 1995-96 — Throwback comp! This was papa Curry — a great shooter who would probably have more value in today’s game than he did in his own era.
G: Jordan Poole — Dennis Schroder, Oklahoma City Thunder, 2018-19 — The bad news: Schroder has two average seasons in his career, and this wasn’t one of th/em. In fact, this was probably the worst season of his career. The good news: he bounced back to below average but still useful in the years since.
F: Bilal Coulibaly — Patrick Williams, Chicago Bulls, 2020-21 — Williams has been disappointing given his lofty draft status but has flashed enough potential to think he could still be useful if he works hard and stays healthy. The Wizards would much prefer Coulibaly follow the career trajectory of the number two guy on his list (Brandon Ingram) or number six (Giannis Antetokounmpo).
F: Kyle Kuzma — Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Pistons, 2017-18 — Don’t get excited. This was the Griffin already in decline due to injuries, and he was still more productive (at least according to my reckoning) than Kuzma.
C: Jonas Valanciunas — Pau Gasol, San Antonio Spurs, 2016-17 — Gasol was a great player in his day, and was still productive (when healthy) in a bench role at this point (his age 36 season).
Reserves
G: Bub Carrington — Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana University, 2022-23 — Carrington was pretty good in summer league. His top comp in the draft was Hood-Schifino, who got just 1099 minutes for the Lakers last season. Wizards fans should hope Carrington is more like a guy a bit further down the list (in reasonably similar territory): Tyrese Maxey.
W: Corey Kispert — Marco Belinelli, New Orleans Hornets, 2010-11 — Decent player who lasted 13 seasons due to a great name and a good jump shot.
F: Alex Sarr — Wendell Carter, Duke University, 2017-18 — Set the summer league debacle to the side. Sarr was a highly regarded prospect for a reason. Sure, the weak draft pushed him higher, but still — he should be far better in the NBA than he was this summer.
F: Patrick Baldwin Jr. — Kevin Knox, New York Knicks, 2020-21 — This comp does not bode well for Baldwin’s NBA future. Knox has four teams under his belt in five seasons. Something else that doesn’t bode well for Baldwin: that he couldn’t get on the floor last season for the worst team in franchise history.
C: Richaun Holmes — Ben Poquette, Cleveland Cavaliers, 1984-85 — Poquette was an old-school PF, who would probably be a smaller center (like Holmes) or learn to shoot threes if he was around today. This season (age 29) was near the end of the line for Poquette. He’d play two more years in the NBA and finish his playing days with three seasons in Italy.
G: Jared Butler — Shelvin Mack, Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks, 2012-13 — Mack was actually a decent backup guard for a few years. He was a second round pick in Washington’s disastrous 2011 draft — the best player they picked that year by a wide margin. Naturally, they cut him twice and he carved out a career elsewhere.
F/C: Anthony Gill — Charles Davis, Chicago Bulls, 1988-89 — I have no memory whatsoever of Davis despite the fact that he played three full seasons and an additional four games for the Washington Bullets. Career end of the bench forward who never produced much better than replacement level.
G: Johnny Davis — Doron Lamb, Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic, 2012-13 — Lamb played in just two NBA seasons.
C: Tristan Vukcevic — Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves, 2019-20 — Reid grew from barely getting off the bench as a rookie to a useful reserve.
So here’s the All-Doppelganger Team:
G — Dell Curry
G — Dennis Schroder
F — Patrick Williams
F — Blake Griffin
C — Pau Gasol
G — Jalen Hood-Schifino
G — Shelvin Mack
W — Marco Belinelli
C — Ben Poquette
F/C — Wendell Carter Jr.
F — Kevin Knox
F/C — Charles Davis
G — Doron Lamb
C — Naz Reid
Seems about right for 12-15 wins.