After Thursday, the Mystics could find out whether they make the playoffs or miss them with one or even two draft lottery picks.
The Washington Mystics will have at least one lottery pick for the 2025 WNBA Draft. But after last night’s games, it’s unclear as to whether that lottery pick is from their regular season position or the Atlanta Dream’s.
In short, just a few days after the Mystics had control of their playoff destiny, now, they’re going to need luck to make the playoffs AND avoid seeing the Dream make the postseason, which is their least ideal situation.
Why? It’s because the Mystics lost to the New York Liberty, 87-71 last night, while the Dream beat the Chicago Sky, 86-70. This was the best case scenario for the Dream, and the worst for the Mystics.
The standings for the 8th seed after games on Sept. 17
Here are the standings as of now:
- No. 8 Atlanta Dream (14-25)
- No. 9 Washington Mystics (13-26), 1 game behind the Dream
- No. 10 Chicago Sky (13-26), 1 game behind the Dream, lost tie breaker with the Mystics,
The Mystics own the tiebreaker against both the Dream and the Sky. So if all three teams had the same regular season record, the Mystics will have the highest position in the standings for playoff (and draft lottery purposes). The Dream has the tiebreaker against the Sky after last night’s game.
In short, the Dream have the upper hand, while the Mystics will just have to win their last game and then wait and see what happens.
What are the games on Sept 19 that matter for the Mystics’ final standing?
There are three games.
First, the Mystics will host the Indiana Fever tomorrow at 7 p.m. ET at Capital One Arena, in what is likely their last home game of the 2024 season whether they make the playoffs or not. Given that the Mystics’ were run out of ESA last night, I don’t realistically see them winning a game against the Liberty in a first round series. The Liberty are the No. 1 seed in the 2024 WNBA Playoffs.
Second, the Dream will play the Liberty on the road tomorrow at 7 p.m ET for their last regular season game. Coincidentally, the Dream may very well be playing the Liberty in the 2024 WNBA Playoffs if they earn the No. 8 seed.
Third, the Sky will play the Connecticut Sun on the road tomorrow at … you guessed it, 7 p.m. ET!
How can the Mystics clinch a playoff spot?
If the Mystics can beat the Fever, they need the Liberty to win against the Dream to make the playoffs. If the Mystics win tomorrow but the Dream beat the Liberty, they are eliminated from the playoffs because the Dream will finish with a better regular season record. It doesn’t matter if the Sky win or not because Washington holds the tiebreaker.
What is the best case scenario for the Mystics from a fan perspective?
While it’s commendable to see the Mystics get on a hot streak last month, I still believe that it’s best for the Mystics to have as many lottery picks as possible given the 2025 WNBA Draft and who is likely to be picked first, and I’ll leave it at that. So, I want this to happen:
The Mystics lose, the Dream lose, and the Sky win. The Sky make the playoffs, and the Mystics have TWO draft lottery picks with the 3rd and 4th best chances of getting the No. 1 pick. It is not an ideal situation because the Mystics’ run in the standings started very late in the regular season, but two picks are better than none. Finally, one of those picks ends up being the No. 1 overall pick for 2025. YAAAAAAAAS!!!!!
What is the best case scenario for the Mystics from a player and coach perspective?
This is the situation where the Mystics make the playoffs. They win while the Dream lose. Washington still has one lottery pick at the Dream’s expense. We don’t know where every team will pick, but if the Dream’s pick is No. 1, the Mystics will be feeling real good about that!
What is the worst case scenario for the Mystics?
The worst case scenario for tomorrow is where the Mystics lose and the Dream win. This scenario will give the Mystics only one draft lottery pick with the 4th best chance of getting the No. 1 pick in the 2025 Draft. It also gives the Dream some comfort of not allowing Washington the possibility of having two draft lottery picks, and it eliminates the possibility (even if it’s remote) of them giving up the No. 1 pick to Washington.
And though we don’t know what the draft order will be in 2025, if Washington’s lottery pick isn’t No. 1, fans will argue that this late season push was done in vain.
We won’t know what the worst and best case scenarios are until closer to the 2025 calendar year when the draft lottery happens. But it’s going to be a stress inducing Thursday evening for sure! Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.