Let’s take a deeper dive into how the former Washington guard could do at his new home.
One of the more amusing aspects of the Phoenix Suns signing former Washington Wizards guard Tyus Jones to a one-year, minimum salary deal was that they’d already signed former Washington Wizards guard Monte Morris to a one-year minimum salary deal.
As regular readers may recall, when I ran Jones through the statistical doppelgänger machine last summer, five seasons from Morris were among the 10 most similar to Jones. Now the Suns have both guys so they’ll never have to be without a Jones/Morris (Morris/Jones) on the floor.
Last season, by the way, was probably the best of Jones’ career, at least on the offensive end. He shot career highs on twos and threes, had a career high in assists per 100 team possessions, and posted a preposterous 7.3-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. His offensive efficiency was +13.6 points per 100 possessions better than league, and he ranked 19th in total points added according to my +PTS (plus-points) stat, which compares a player’s offensive output to what the league would have done with the same number of possessions.
Despite the superb efficiency, it’s fair to question his overall impact. The Wizards shot significantly better when he was on the floor than when he was off, but the overall difference in the team’s offense when he was out there was +1.7 per 100 possessions. That’s a fairly modest number — in part because of his low 17% usage rate.
Note: Jones’ offensive impact was not dragged down by Jordan Poole. The team’s offense was actually a little better with the two of them on the floor together.
Aside: In what might be a statistical shot across the bow, Washington’s offense was significantly worse last season with Poole on the floor than it was when Jones and Poole were on the floor together, when Jones was on the floor without Poole, and when both Jones and Poole were off the floor together:
WOWY Offensive Ratings — Jones and Poole
- both off: 113.3 — 992 minutes
- both on: 112.1 — 1324 minutes
- Jones on, Poole off: 110.4 — 609 minutes
- Poole on, Jones off: 107.5 — 1021 minutes
League average offensive rating: 115.3.
In other words, the offense wasn’t much good in any configuration last season, and it was much worse when Poole was on the floor without Jones.
I haven’t talked much about defense yet for a couple reasons. First, Jones’ defense (like the rest of the team’s) was awful. Sure, he’s small and not strong or athletic (by NBA standards), but he was a competent defender when he tried with the Memphis Grizzlies. And second, I doubt the Suns will get the kind of defender Jones was last season.
Questing for a lucrative new contract, and playing for a team with championship dreams, I suspect Jones will give a more Memphis-like effort on that end. That won’t transmogrify him into a good defender, but it should boost his overall value.
So, Phoenix is likely getting a quality caretaker guard who will get them into their offense, deliver the ball to the right guys at the right time, avoid turnovers and other miscues, and score efficiently when needed while performing at a C-/D+ level defensively. At this point, I’m not sure whether I’m talking about Jones or Morris.
Below are what the statistical doppelgänger machine says are his closest comps.
Quick refresher: the statistical doppelgänger machine compares a player to every other player season in my database, which goes back to the 1977-78 season. Players are compared across an array of categories, including pace-adjusted production and age. Position and physical attributes (height, weight, perceived athleticism) are not part of the system, though players tend to have comps who play the same position.
Here’s the top 10 doppelgängers for Jones last season:
- Jason Williams, Memphis Grizzlies, 2003-04 — This was not the White Chocolate flash-and-sizzle guy from his Sacramento Kings days. Williams had slowed a bit, and was more of a paint-by-numbers guy at this point. Williams had a better body of work than Jones. This was also his best season.
- Monte Morris, Washington Wizards, 2022-23 — Duh.
- Monte Morris, Denver Nuggets, 2021-22 — Unsurprising.
- Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks, 2004-05 — This was Terry’s first season in Dallas and was the the start of the best three-year run of his career. My PPA metric has Terry’s best season as 2006-07 (age 29 season). He would play until age 40.
- Kenny Smith, Houston Rockets, 1992-93 — This was the third season in a five-year run of solidly above average play from Smith. The Rockets won titles with Smith as their starting PG in 1994 and 1995.
- Darren Collison, Indiana Pacers, 2017-18 — Solid PG who became a good starter later in his career when he got to the Pacers. This was his best season (PPA 167 — in PPA, average is 100 and higher is better). He was well above average the following season (age 31), and instead of signing a lucrative free agent contract, retired to do religious work.
- Steve Blake, Portland Trail Blazers, 2008-09 — Good guy and classic NBA journeyman. Blake played in 13 NBA seasons (his last came at age 35), and three were average or better. This was his best year.
- Jason Williams, Memphis Grizzlies, 2006-07 — see above
- Jose Calderon, Toronto Raptors & Detroit Pistons, 2012-13 — Small. Great shooter. Crazy efficient on offense. Defensively challenged. Also: entered the league as a 24-year-old rookie, appeared in 14 seasons, and finally hung ‘em up at age 37.
- Brad Davis, Dallas Mavericks, 1982-83 — Throwback! Jones could extend the similarity by straightening his hair and dying it blond and growing one of those classic late-70s, early-80s mustaches. Davis took a few years to figure out the NBA and then had six straight seasons that rated average or better. This was the best of his career — age 27.
By the way, why might the Suns have been in the market for another version of Monte Morris when they already had Morris under contract? Morris wasn’t exactly himself — he was injured and ineffective when he got healthy enough to step on the court. What better way to insure yourself against a Morris decline than signing a guy just like him, but maybe a little better?
Here’s the top five Morris doppelgängers from last season:
- Damon Jones, Sacramento Kings, 2002-03
- Devonte’ Graham, New Orleans Pelicans & San Antonio Spurs, 2022-23
- Jon Barry, Atlanta Hawks, 1996-97
- Shammond Williams, Orlando Magic & Charlotte Hornets, 2003-04
- Danny Young, Portland Trail Blazers, 1990-91