Results from the doppelganger machine.
As I begin this column, let me begin with this: Apple’s lack of backwards compatibility is maddening. Would it really be that much trouble to include a USB 2 port?
If you spot typos in any numbers, just know I blame Tim Cook for letting his team build a laptop so f-ing sophisticated that I can’t use a number pad until I either buy an adapter or a new keyboard.
Update: when trying to load a (large) spreadsheet crashed the browser, I switched back to my old, slow, boring Windows laptop. Suddenly, I have keyboard, mouse, and complete access to all the stuff on my cloud drive — without causing Chrome to swoon.
Where was I?
Earlier this summer, the Washington Wizards traded Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazers for two first round picks (the first of which is Bub Carrington, the second of which they get in 2029) and veteran guard Malcolm Brogdon. Leaving aside the weird optics of trading a 23-year-old with four years remaining on a team-friendly contract “for the future,” what did the Wizards give up and what did they get back?
Avdija had his strengths and weaknesses. On the plus side: above-average defender, good size and speed, some creativity passing the ball, feisty and competitive. On the not-plus side: subpar left hand, turnover prone, foul prone (though he improved in that area last season), and questionable shooting (though he improved in that area last season, as well).
His production has gotten better every season. Here’s his progression in my Player Production Average metric (PPA):
- 2020-21 — 48
- 2021-22 — 69
- 2022-23 — 76
- 2023-24 — 111
For the uninitiated, PPA is my overall production metric, which is pace neutral and accounts for role and defensive impact. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and 45 is replacement level.
Overall, a solid player who will probably continue to improve a bit and be at the “solid starter” level for the next 5-7 years.
I ran Avdija through my statistical doppelgänger machine (which apparently was too much for Apple), and here’s who the machine spit out as his closest comps:
- Mike Dunleavy Jr., 2003-04, Golden State Warriors — Decent player who stuck around as a player until age 36 and is now Golden State’s general manager. In his 16 NBA seasons, Dunleavy cracked average in PPA eight times, topping out at 136 at age 27 with the Indiana Pacers.
- Aaron Gordon, 2019-20, Orlando Magic — This comp feels better because of what happened with Gordon after the trade to the Denver Nuggets and the opportunity to play with Nikola Jokic. Back in 2019-20, Gordon was a decent but kinda disappointing player who the Magic coaches couldn’t figure out how best to use.
- Wendell Carter Jr., 2022-23, Orlando Magic — This was Carter’s second season away from the Chicago Bulls. In the previous season, Carter was a solidly above average big man. In this season, he regressed a bit, probably due to chronic health issues.
- Aaron Gordon, 2018-19, Orlando Magic — See number two above — same points but stronger.
- Jalen Williams, 2022-23, Oklahoma City Thunder — This was Williams’ impressive rookie year. It rates a bit better than Avdija’s fourth season. Williams leapt to All-Star level production (note: he didn’t make the All-Star team, though he did play at the level of an All-Star).
After that, comps include De’Andre Hunter, George Hill, Josh Hart (age 26), and Keldon Johnson.
In Brogdon, the Wizards are getting a solid veteran guard with an NBA past and not much of a future (at least as a player). The NBA money is going to be big enough that he could stick around for a few more years at the end of benches because he’s apparently an all-time great human being. His teammates at University of Virginia called him “The President” because they figured he’d be the American president someday.
Brogdon was an old rookie (age 24) and a second round pick, who was productive immediately. The issue with him has never been his play (always good to very good) but health. He played 75 games as a rookie and topped 60 just twice in seven seasons subsequent. Last season, he played just 39 games for Portland.
As a player, Brogdon does just about everything at a B or better level — solid defense, good rebounder for a guard, decent playmaking, avoids turnovers and fouls, excellent shooter. The injuries have taken their toll. He’s still a smart and productive player when healthy enough to play. He’s also slower and doesn’t have the same burst he had when younger.
Here’s who the doppelgänger machine identifies as top comps:
- Dell Curry, 1995-96, Charlotte Hornets — This was a 31-year-old Curry, and it was the best season of his career. Curry had less defense and playmaking than Brogdon, though the shooting was pretty comparable.
- Goran Dragic, 2018-19 & 2019-20, Miami Heat — These were the seasons where Dragic was severely limited by injuries but still fairly productive (90s PPA) when he could get on the court. His production cratered the following season (age 34), and he got a couple more seasons before the NBA was convinced he was finally done.
- Nick Van Exel, 2001-02, Dallas Mavericks & Denver Nuggets — Van Exel’s career followed a pretty normal arc. Solid as a rookie, steady improvement to a peak at age 26, and then a decline. This age 30 season was his last average or better year. He played until age 34.
- Damon Stoudamire, 2004-05, Portland Trail Blazers — Little guard with solid production for a bunch of years. He reached a career-best 129 PPA twice (in his second season at age 23, and his seventh season at age 27). He played 14 seasons, 11 of which rated average or better in PPA. This comp season was kind of a last hurrah for above-average Stoudamire. At 31, he posted a 126 PPA, got hurt the following season with the Memphis Grizzlies (just 27 games and a 107 PPA) and then dropped off from there. Good career, however.
- Danny Ainge, 1988-89, Boston Celtics and Sacramento Kings — After a poor rookie season, Ainge became a starter in year two and was basically average (103 PPA). His production cratered off the bench the following season, and picked back up when Boston moved him back into the starting lineup. At age 29, this was the end of the road for him with the Celtics. He had two more average or better seasons (one with Sacramento, the other with Portland), and then he finished his career with four more seasons as an off-the-bench contributor with Portland and the Phoenix Suns.
The throwback comps continue for Brogdon by the way. Next on the list were guys like Bobby Jackson, another season from Van Exel, Earl Boykins, and Rex Chapman.
I’m not forecasting yet, but to steal my own thunder a bit, there’s a reasonable chance that Brogdon’s average-or-better years are behind him at this point. Much as I’ve liked him as a player and a person, the Wizards would be wise to trade him at the earliest possible opportunity for any reasonable return (second round picks and some young players with promise, or a bad contract and a first round pick) before he gets hurt again.