Ariel Atkins, Brittney Sykes and Shakira Austin will definitely not be available for an expansion draft for the new WNBA team in Golden State. So we look at the remaining players, and it’s not unrealistic for Karlie Samuelson or Stefanie Dolson head out to the Bay Area in 2025 using some assumptions on what the expansion draft could look like.
The Golden State Valkyries will begin play in the 2025 WNBA season. We don’t know where they will pick in the draft, but it’s likely after the four lottery teams. They will also likely have an expansion draft where they can pick players who are on other teams. Today, we’ll see which Mystics players could be selected by the Valkyries in 2025.
How many players will be protected by WNBA teams in an expansion draft?
The Atlanta Dream were the last WNBA expansion team in 2008. In that draft, other teams were allowed to protect six players. After that, the Dream were allowed to pick up those players without regard to their contract status. That draft was held on Feb. 6, 2008.
The rules of the Valkyries’ expansion draft aren’t finalized, so the Dream’s scenario in 2008 is our closest framework.
What is the contract status for each Mystics player in 2025?
These players are under guaranteed contracts in 2025:
- Ariel Atkins
- Brittney Sykes
- Stefanie Dolson
- Karlie Samuelson
These players are on unguaranteed contracts in 2025:
- Aaliyah Edwards
- Shakira Austin
- Sika Kone
- Jade Melbourne
These players are on reserved status in 2025, where the Mystics are the only team they can negotiate with, even though they are not on contract yet:
- Emily Engstler
- Sug Sutton
- Julie Vanloo
These players are unrestricted free agents in 2025:
- Shatori Walker-Kimbrough
- Elena Delle Donne (the Mystics still hold her rights)
The Mystics hold these players’ rights, though they have never played for Washington:
- Txell Alarcon (Spanish player)
- Nastja Claessens (Belgian player)
Which six players will the Mystics protect?
There are no guarantees, but in general, teams, including the Mystics, will protect their most talented players and first round draft picks who are on rookie-scale contracts first. If teams have the rights to critical free agents, they will also protect those players.
Again, we don’t know what the expansion draft rules will be. So let’s pretend to be General Manager Mike Thibault, look at the Mystics’ roster, and protect six players based on these assumptions:
- A player on contract for 2025
- A player entering unrestricted free agency in 2025 who is eligible to be cored
- A player entering unrestricted free agency in 2025 who maxed out her cored years
- A player entering restricted free agency in 2025
- A player on a reserved status in 2025
- A player who isn’t on a contract, but the team has her rights.
With that in mind, here are the five players whom Washington is most likely to protect in almost any scenario if six players get protected:
- Elena Delle Donne: Though she missed the 2024 season after getting cored, Delle Donne remains a valuable trade chip if she decides to play in 2025. Therefore, she is protected.
- Brittney Sykes: As one of the Mystics’ top players and the WNBA’s top defenders, they won’t let her go.
- Ariel Atkins: See what I said about Sykes.
- Shakira Austin: Though Austin has been injury-prone in the last couple of seasons, her rookie season in 2022 was impressive when she was Washington’s starting center.
- Aaliyah Edwards: Edwards was the Mystics’ first-round pick in the 2024 WNBA Draft. They will not let her go to the Valkyries.
There is one more spot to protect. It ultimately comes down to Stefanie Dolson and Karlie Samuelson. I eventually decided to protect:
- Stefanie Dolson: As one of the WNBA’s better stretch posts, Dolson fits well with the Mystics’ style of play. She’s also a valued veteran voice in the locker room and is more familiar with the Mystics’ way of doing things, given that she started her WNBA career in D.C.
How likely is it that the remaining players get picked up in an expansion draft?
Here are the remaining players and how likely it is that the Valkyries will draft them by category from most likely to unlikely:
- Karlie Samuelson: Samuelson averaged a career-high 8.4 points per game in the 2024 season and made nearly 40 percent of her threes while averaging 1.7 makes per game. Any team can use a sharpshooter, and Samuelson would get extended minutes on Golden State. Samuelson also comes from California and went to Stanford, which is in the Bay Area, too, so she should be the runaway choice for the Valkyries, assuming the Mystics don’t protect her. Also, I can see the Mystics protect Samuelson while not protecting Dolson. If that were the case, I’d say Dolson would be player most likely to be drafted by the Valkyries.
- Shatori Walker-Kimbrough: SWK averaged a career-high 7.5 points per game and played all 40 games for Washington in the last two seasons. She is an efficient scorer and a solid defender. If Samuelson is protected and the Valkyries need a decent wing player, Shatori is a solid pick if the Valkyries are looking for a veteran.
- Jade Melbourne: Melbourne averaged 5.4 points per game in the 2024 season and is just 22 years old. She is in a good position to be a double-digit scorer in three to four years. Given her age and improvement, she’s a high-reward type of selection.
- Emily Engstler: Engstler averaged a career-high 6.2 points per game for the Mystics will shooting nearly 50 percent overall and from the three point line. Furthermore, she is just entering her fourth WNBA season in 2025. The Mystics can’t keep every young player they have, which is why she and Melbourne aren’t protected. But I don’t necessarily see her or Melbourne in Valkyries uniforms, especially if Samuelson and/or Dolson are available, since they would provide a veteran presence for the team.
- Sika Kone, Sug Sutton and Julie Vanloo: I don’t see them as realistic Valkyries targets. In Sutton’s case, she’s on a reserved contract, and multiple players at her general level will be available. Kone and Vanloo are non-American players who will likely play for their national teams in continental tournaments for 2025, Kone for Mali in Women’s AfroBasket, Vanloo for Belgium in Women’s EuroBasket. Therefore, they will likely miss a significant part of next season, given that the WNBA season doesn’t pause for continental tournaments.
What are your thoughts of the expansion draft and which Mystics player may be selected? Let us know in the comments below.